Global model runs discussion

[SFLcane]

57, which CONUS pattern do you see evolving?

Well, since the 240hr Canadian from 00Z looks very much like the Euro, I'd suspect that the 12Z GFS is on some type of illegal drug and all of its output is suspect.

The 12z ECM trended today with the GFS with a strong trough in the eastern US an on eventual NE turn.

[srainhoutx]

57, which CONUS pattern do you see evolving?

Well, since the 240hr Canadian from 00Z looks very much like the Euro, I'd suspect that the 12Z GFS is on some type of illegal drug and all of its output is suspect.

The 12z ECM trended today with the GFS with a strong trough in the eastern US an on eventual NE turn.

I disagree. What the EC did is send a system NE @ hour 192 that the GFS has depicted will not happen until hour 324. Something just doesn't jive.

[Weatherfreak000]

>>That's assuming that something actually develops and so far everything that has been suppressed
way down south except for Alex. I'm not saying it won't happen but only that odds are decreasing
with time. Just my opinion.

With your track record this season, I'm thinking you'll eventually be right about the time factor. That should kick in some time in December or January. To have put well over 100 posts out there prosthletyzing and pontificating this and that as to why the season will never get going, you sure haven't been seen around those threads very much recently. In my opinion, you should sneak back in those and all the archived, active threads and revise some history.

Big time agreement here. At first, I was skeptical seeing as how it was so far away and the surface feature wasn't even observable. 48 hours have passed, the models all still unanimously spark development, Lisa is almost upon us, and I can actually see a trackable surface feature with this test invest.

All signs have been going up for development, no question about it.

P.S. The weather doesn't have a "memory" stormcenter.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

57, which CONUS pattern do you see evolving?

Well, since the 240hr Canadian from 00Z looks very much like the Euro, I'd suspect that the 12Z GFS is on some type of illegal drug and all of its output is suspect.

When are people going to realize that all models are suspect in the long range as small changes can impart huge differences in long range solutions, even within the same model from run to run. There may be slight differences in model performance but not enough to embrace any model's output, particularly at such long range. The technology is just not there yet.

[ROCK]

well said Calm....tis true, the GFS runs have been suspect as I have been saying for about 2 days.....

[Weatherfreak000]

:uarrow: well said Calm....tis true, the GFS runs have been suspect as I have been saying for about 2 days.....

Funny the EURO is the model showing troughiness right now...usually its different ballgame entirely. What are your thoughts on this?

[BigA]

:uarrow: well said Calm....tis true, the GFS runs have been suspect as I have been saying for about 2 days.....

Funny the EURO is the model showing troughiness right now...usually its different ballgame entirely. What are your thoughts on this?

Lets see what tomorrow's 00Z and 12Z Euros say. If they both show a slide back to the west, we'll know this run's troughiness was probably an abberation.

In any event, I don't see this storm getting hooked rapidly northeastward. It just doesn't happen like that in late September. Mid-late October, sure, but you don't get strong enough troughs (usually) this early in the fall.

[ROCK]

:uarrow: well said Calm....tis true, the GFS runs have been suspect as I have been saying for about 2 days.....

Funny the EURO is the model showing troughiness right now...usually its different ballgame entirely. What are your thoughts on this?

usually the EURO is pretty good at around the 144-196hr but after that I think it is comparable to every other model. Holds true for the GFS....to be honest I am waiting on the CMC tonight....

Front passage all the way through the GOM to pick up 46L seems unlikely for how far south its progged to be.....but you never know...it is only mid-Sept...so I think its over done...

[Steve]

>>Well, since the 240hr Canadian from 00Z looks very much like the Euro, I'd suspect that the 12Z GFS is on some type of illegal drug and all of its output is suspect.

Teleconnection in the WPAC should hold 8-12 days. After that though...

[srainhoutx]

>>Well, since the 240hr Canadian from 00Z looks very much like the Euro, I'd suspect that the 12Z GFS is on some type of illegal drug and all of its output is suspect.

Teleconnection in the WPAC should hold 8-12 days. After that though...

Be mindful of the NAO...

[cycloneye]

Someone mentioned NAO? Here is the forecast and it looks like the positive phase is comming.

[srainhoutx]

Good catch Luis...

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps,after 192 hours of run, post here those long range.

[ROCK]

[cycloneye]

There it goes up.

[ROCK]

front clears out the entire GOM.....season cancelled....

[ROCK]

312hr

[dwsqos2]

I'm thinking Fabian 1991 is an excellent analog.

[Steve]

>>Be mindful of the NAO...

Yeah. I've been following it closely since early August. It has been predominantly negative although not a dominant signal recently. We have continued with low pressure in the NE and Eastern Canada. ECMWF has hinted at a stronger turn to positive, but it really hasn't panned out - yet anyway. GFS has been alternating what it wants to do between the 00z and 12z runs (with the 12z runs over the last 3 weeks or so much more negative). Who knows? We do know the season ain't over yet and that it's very possible that many of the targeted areas might still see threats (S FL, Central America, NE Gulf, etc.). It's going to be interesting to see whether or not we get a few days or more with a positive NAO along with the coming MJO pulse and the kelvin wave. All that lining up almost takes the fun out of speculating, but you figure something's going to be in the Western Caribbean or SE Gulf in the 10 day period with the way the pattern is heading. What happens with the potential energy, if anything, remains to be seen.

Oh yeah, and for you 49ers fans, don't get uppity because you played us hard. We're 2-0.

[ROCK]

>>Be mindful of the NAO...

Yeah. I've been following it closely since early August. It has been predominantly negative although not a dominant signal recently. We have continued with low pressure in the NE and Eastern Canada. ECMWF has hinted at a stronger turn to positive, but it really hasn't panned out - yet anyway. GFS has been alternating what it wants to do between the 00z and 12z runs (with the 12z runs over the last 3 weeks or so much more negative). Who knows? We do know the season ain't over yet and that it's very possible that many of the targeted areas might still see threats (S FL, Central America, NE Gulf, etc.). It's going to be interesting to see whether or not we get a few days or more with a positive NAO along with the coming MJO pulse and the kelvin wave. All that lining up almost takes the fun out of speculating, but you figure something's going to be in the Western Caribbean or SE Gulf in the 10 day period with the way the pattern is heading. What happens with the potential energy, if anything, remains to be seen.

Oh yeah, and for you 49ers fans, don't get uppity because you played us hard. We're 2-0.

SO are the Texans....see you in Dallas!!