ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[supercane]

It's ok to occasionally state your gut feeling but we have casual viewers here who might believe you ... let's get back to the science.

If you'll oblige as well, as I have little reason to believe your contention that

the naked center you see is not the LLC

especially given recon data and NHC stating in their discussion that "The low-level circulation center became exposed to the southwest of the main area of deep convection." Unless, of course, you're implying that the reason that the apparent center is not the center is that a center doesn't exist at all

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

The plane has flown through that naked swirl already. They didn't find any surface circulation center. Danny appears to lack one now, making it a open wave/remnant low.

[AutoPenalti]

Danny died. RIP. 2015-2015.

[SFLcane]

We're all still hungover from the 2005 season.

You think..

[Hammy]

The plane has flown through that naked swirl already. They didn't find any surface circulation center. Danny appears to lack one now, making it a open wave/remnant low.

Will they likely keep the advisories going until it passes the islands though, or thinking final advisory later?

[SouthFLTropics]

Is it just me or does the most recent IR loop of Danny look like Pac Man dying after he's chomped by the ghosts. I saw the loop and the sound effect went off in my head.

SFT

[ozonepete]

It's ok to occasionally state your gut feeling but we have casual viewers here who might believe you ... let's get back to the science.

If you'll oblige as well, as I have little reason to believe your contention that

the naked center you see is not the LLC

especially given recon data and NHC stating in their discussion that "The low-level circulation center became exposed to the southwest of the main area of deep convection." Unless, of course, you're implying that the reason that the apparent center is not the center is that a center doesn't exist at all

That's what I'm basically saying. As wxman57 just told you, they flew through that swirl everyone is calling the center and there is no LLC there.

What I am trying to point out is that there is an overall mid-level rotation and that MLC has multiple (right now I think it's 3) small swirls that spin up quickly and rotate under the general MLC. They continually get ejected from the main circulation and then new ones form. If this process continues after the shear dies down, one swirl will spin up into an LLC that stacks up with the MLC. There is still a possibility that will happen in Danny tonight or tomorrow. But the one that NHC was following and we still can see is toast - it's too far from the general COC or MLC to remain viable. That's all I'm saying. I don't actually think it will make it either but I want to see what happens overnight.

[MGC]

Time to administer the last rites to Danny.......MGC

[ozonepete]

Time to administer the last rites to Danny.......MGC

Wait for the rains to end in the Islands. They don't need to get caught by a flash flood because they thought it was safe to go out.

[Alyono]

The excerpt below is from the 4pm CDT NWS discussion out of New Orleans, LA. Is the easterly wave they are referring to the remains of Danny?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015



.LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE PLEASANT
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HAVE ADJUSTED
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK KEEPING
THINGS FAIRLY DRY AND VERY NICE. DP TEMPS LOOK TO BEGIN INCREASING
AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE MOVES INTO THE
GULF. 13/MH

may be 98L

[Nederlander]

Well my prediction from yesterday actually turns out to be correct. Went from category 3 to tropical storm to nothing in 3 days.

aaaaand how many times have you flip flopped on Danny in the process??

[NCSTORMMAN]

Well my prediction from yesterday actually turns out to be correct. Went from category 3 to tropical storm to nothing in 3 days.

aaaaand how many times have you flip flopped on Danny in the process??

A billion times. That is why I said from yesterday. Danny did look like he was trying this morning but it was his last breath. Many upon many people have flip flopped on here as well. The weather is a tricky thing don't you know?

[Weatherlover12]

Well my prediction from yesterday actually turns out to be correct. Went from category 3 to tropical storm to nothing in 3 days.

aaaaand how many times have you flip flopped on Danny in the process??

Yippee! We'll give you a cookie for bring right!

[NCSTORMMAN]

Well my prediction from yesterday actually turns out to be correct. Went from category 3 to tropical storm to nothing in 3 days.

aaaaand how many times have you flip flopped on Danny in the process??

Yippee! We'll give you a cookie for bring right!

MMMMMMMMMM cookies give me all the cookies and no one gets hurt.

[tolakram]

Stop with the bickering and one line comments.

[wxman57]

The plane has flown through that naked swirl already. They didn't find any surface circulation center. Danny appears to lack one now, making it a open wave/remnant low.

Will they likely keep the advisories going until it passes the islands though, or thinking final advisory later?

They won't continue advisories on a system that lacks a circulation (usually).

[tolakram]

Live IR loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-58&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[Hurricane Jed]

The plane has flown through that naked swirl already. They didn't find any surface circulation center. Danny appears to lack one now, making it a open wave/remnant low.

Will they likely keep the advisories going until it passes the islands though, or thinking final advisory later?

A final advisory and they may or may not give a mention in the TWO of a chance of regeneration (likely low chance)

[ozonepete]

Looks almost exactly like it did last night - like swiss cheese.

[Nederlander]

Stop with the bickering and one line comments.

Sorry if my post was off-topic or "bickering", ban me if you see fit, but I think it's important that we don't rush to judgement one way or the other in regards to the tropics. Somebody may lurk on here and read that a system is dead or that he's going to be a monster which could spread ignorance of facts or spread panic. There's nothing personal about it, I just think Danny is a perfect example of why the tropics are so unpredictable sometimes and often there's much more at play than what appears. Everyone should be able to give their opinion on here, but I am much more encouraged when there's something scientific or there's data to back it up. Most of us are here to learn and we looks to the pros and more experienced hobbyists for that knowledge. I don't want that to be in vain. That's what's important. Now back to topic at hand..

NHC has done a great job with Danny. They have proven again that they are a very reliable source for watching the tropics. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow holds. He is looking quite ragged now but we will see during DMAX if he has any fight left.