ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[jlauderdal]

Final frame, back onshore.

its trying its hardest to hit florida some way...hurricanes hate land as they search out warm water and we have seen them literally bounce off land masses e.g south coast of jamiaca about 10 years ago

[drezee]

Breaking News!! The AF Recon Flew to the NHC position to find the center and found E winds at 6k ft. It has turned SW to find the center. This is major major news! If the center has shifted SE, then the models will be initialized there for 12z....fun and games my Storm2k friends

That would be a fly in the ointment. I would expect to see the models shift again. Hang on Sloopy.

After 12z and NHC with no new advisory....I would love to be a fly on the wall..."Recon found what?"

[AutoPenalti]

Windshield wipes activate! Form of Model Runs!

Haha I needed to cheer up, good morning guys.

[BobHarlem]

Can anyone else confirm what I see in the 6Z HWRF East coast Florida scrape WPB north and landfall Cocoa Beach?

[gatorcane]

The mean track of the last three ECMWF runs take this right into South Florida.

[drezee]

Breaking News!! The AF Recon Flew to the NHC position to find the center and found E winds at 6k ft. It has turned SW to find the center. This is major major news! If the center has shifted SW, then the models will be initialized there for 12z....fun and games my Storm2k friends

That would be a fly in the ointment. I would expect to see the models shift again. Hang on Sloopy.

After 12z and NHC with no new advisory....I would love to be a fly on the wall..."Recon found what?"

UMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 62.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[BucMan2]

For what its worth the 06NAVGEM has Ericka going up the west coast into the Big Bend area- You figure!!!

[drezee]

Recon did a center drop at 16.4N and 62.8W and found the center with a 10kt N wind....this is big news for downstream

[tolakram]

Yea, NAVGEM traverses most of the Islands, including Cuba.

[OuterBanker]

And the ping pong game continues. Advantage Florida, that's just fine with me.

[tolakram]

Canadian has a near miss on Florida and a hit in NC.

[tolakram]

And a couple saved from the euro run. It has the same general idea as the GFS lat in the run, heading SE after a run up Florida and then back off the GA/SC coast.









source: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2015082700&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=255

[BucMan2]

Tolakram , do you give any credence to that model run?

[tolakram]

Tolakram , do you give any credence to that model run?

I have no idea, not a met. My take away is upper air pattern is complicated and we don't really know yet.

[drezee]

Recon did a center drop at 16.4N and 62.8W and found the center with a 10kt N wind....this is big news for downstream

Not sure there is no vortex message, clean wind shift...pressure signature...temp profile

[tolakram]

Recon did a center drop at 16.4N and 62.8W and found the center with a 10kt N wind....this is big news for downstream

Not sure there is no vortex message, clean wind shift...pressure signature...temp profile

Most likely multiple centers at the moment, like the HWRF predicted. Sheared system, etc. It may mean a west shift, it may not.

[drezee]

Recon did a center drop at 16.4N and 62.8W and found the center with a 10kt N wind....this is big news for downstream

Not sure there is no vortex message, clean wind shift...pressure signature...temp profile

Most likely multiple centers at the moment, like the HWRF predicted. Sheared system, etc. It may mean a west shift, it may not.

With multiple centers, you typically see more dramatic wind shifts...it is possible since they haven't sampled all areas.

[OuterBanker]

Canadian has a near miss on Florida and a hit in NC.

Breathing a sigh of relief. It's the Canadian.

[Blown Away]

12z... Decent shift west, TVCN consensus just offshore SFL now...


12z... Lots of Cat 2-4 When Erika Is Near SFL...


06z.. For Comparison...

[OuterBanker]

12z... Decent shift west, TVCN consensus just offshore SFL now...


12z... Lots of Cat 2-4 When Erika Is Near SFL...


06z.. For Comparison...

That actully looks worse for the Carolinas. The out to seas shifted west too.