ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

The best shot for Danny might be to stay south of the big islands as I cant see it going north of them

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[xironman]

A little drop in shear + little more moisture + dmax, not dead yet. My guess is the old vort that got kicked of yesterdays convection is just west of the red blotch. Dominica should get a wind shift



The shortwave kind of shows it

[xironman]

Ah, there is the red blob

TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Danny
this morning indicate that Danny still has winds that support
keeping the cyclone as a tropical storm. However, due to a strong
burst of deep convection containing tops of -80 deg C and intense
lightning activity that has developed near the alleged center, the
aircraft has been unable to provide an exact center fix. This
avoidance is for aircrew and aircraft safety reasons. However,
satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB also
support keeping Danny as a tropical storm.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240848
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015

...DANNY SLOWS DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 60.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and
Nevis.

The Meteorological Service of Curacao indicates that a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

[Gustywind]

Best Track

AL, 04, 2015082406, , BEST, 0, 157N, 601W, 35, 1008, TS,

[N2FSU]

Danny just keeps fighting.

[Gustywind]

Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe

(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M

Conditions at
Aug 24, 2015 - 05:30 AM EDT Aug 24, 2015 -
2015.08.24 0930 UTC

Wind from the ENE (060 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Light rain
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.83 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
ob TFFR 240930Z AUTO 06005KT 030V090 9999 -RA SCT009/// BKN016/// OVC025/// 26/25 Q1010

[northjaxpro]

Danny is.one of the most tenacious tropical cyclones I have tracked in all years of observing the weather. He is certainly a storm for the history books and he is not done yet. A remarkable small system!!

[BobHarlem]

Radar is showing it over the islands now,

two long radar loops:

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?172

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?173

[AutoPenalti]

Uh, if Danny slows down any more, that open wave behind is going to collide right behind him.

[Dean4Storms]

With the slow down in forward speed Danny is in a slightly better vertical wind shear situation. His slower forward speed reduces the overall effect of the shear.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 60.5W AS OF 24/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 85 NM E OF DOMINICA AND ABOUT 100 NM E-SE OF
GUADELOUPE MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 58W-62W AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[northjaxpro]

Uh, if Danny slows down any more, that open wave behind is going to collide right behind him.

Well, the forecast from NHC and the consensus of most of the reliable models have Danny finally dissapating or a remnant Low by Wednesday, so in all likelihood, Danny will be officially history by the time soon to be Erika approaches the Islands.

[cycloneye]

Down to TD.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
800 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015

...DANNY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 61.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM S OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The tropical storm watch for St. Maarten is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

[blp]

Morning to all. Danny has slowed down and shear has subsided some which has allowed convection to form closer to the low. Danny faces the next challenge whereby most systems in development or weakening stages normally struggle when they enter the Carribean. It is normally a region that is not conducive to developing systems. We have seen it many times before. If the system is established then it can certainly take advantage. Let's see if Danny can beat the odds again.

[Gustywind]

Best Track.

AL, 04, 2015082412, , BEST, 0, 159N, 615W, 25, 1009, TD,

[msbee]

good morning all
we have had some light rain in St Maarten but nothign significant. ..winds from the E at 18 mph.
I don't think we will even get any significant rainfall from Danny

[Ntxw]

What is the current dewpoint there?

WV loop

[AutoPenalti]

Danny starting to lose convection again.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015

...DANNY DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY..


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 62.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES