ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Based on Sat and Recon trends...I am willing to bet a Coca-Cola that it will miss the 0z point to the NW. Looks like it will be NW of 12Z GFS and yesterday's 0Z Euro by 0z tonight...just an observation...

12H 02/0000Z 22.9N 74.2W 115 KT 130 MPH


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Last night's Euro forecasted Joaquin to be at 23.1N & 74.3W at 15z, so the forecast was just a little west of the last fix from the recon at 15:20z

Agree, but I am talking about the 0z position in 9 hours...Euro still going SW for 9-12 more hours...

No, the HR Euro run that I have shows a WSW movement during the day, which is what it has been doing ending this evening and then begin a a very slow NNW to N movement after midnight through the day tomorrow, then a NE start tomorrow night.

[Ken Lucas]

Could this storm get so far west that it missed both the cut off low and the possible door out to sea? It looks like it would need to go North in order to feel the out to sea tugging.

That's a scenario I hope doesn't come to pass.

[windnrain]

anyone have that recon fix map?

[EquusStorm]

If the 935 is accurate, that's the lowest pressure in an Atlantic storm since Igor in 2010 (the strongest storms in 2011, 2012, and 2014 were apparently tied at 940) That was half a decade ago. Granted, not sure how many of those had recon, but still.

2011: Ophelia's 940 was a Dvorak estimate without Recon (Irene was lowest with Recon at 942)
2012: Sandy's 940 was confirmed by Recon
2014: Gonzalo's 940 was confirmed by Recon

If this is confirmed, I believe the lowest pressure that Recon found in Igor was 937 (the 924 was a Dvorak estimate). Earl in 2010 had a 927 pressure confirmed by Recon though.

Awesome. I knew Sandy and Gonzalo had recon but didn't think Ophelia did. Also I forgot just how intense Earl was. Pretty impressive season, that.

[Sanibel]

The core is doing the fist (Intensifying).



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

pretty much west, which was forecasted by the Euro...the turn should hopefully happen by later today and into tonight.

Now is where I wonder if ridge pumping may start to happen?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[BobHarlem]

It's just north of crooked island in the Bahamas now, the pitts town station stopped reporting an hour ago with 85mph winds then.

[SeGaBob]

It seems like the eye has cleared out in the last couple of frames on visible, or it could just be me.

[windnrain]

[drezee]

No, the HR Euro run that I have shows a WSW movement during the day, which is what it has been doing ending this evening and then begin a a very slow NNW to N movement after midnight through the day tomorrow, then a NE start tomorrow night.

I also have the HR Euro. It has it below 23N at 0z tonight near the tip of long island. Like I said, I think it will be N of there...we shall see

[tropicwatch]

anyone have that recon fix map?

[tolakram]

Don't forget Tropical Tidbits also tracks recon, with a map of fixes as well.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[green eyed girl]

Okay. I have what may be a stupid question. Lets say that the current GFS is correct and it doesn't actually HIT the east coast near the Carolinas or Virginia. Will the rain and storm surge still be bad enough in Virginia Beach that my daughter and grandchildren should evacuate?

[Sanibel]

It seems like the eye has cleared out in the last couple of frames on visible, or it could just be me.

I'm seeing that too (getting ready for business).



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[drezee]

The core is doing the fist (Intensifying).

I literally coined the term many years ago. What you see are mesovortices not a fist. It did that last night. It typically is such an explosive tower that it obscures the eye then wraps around.

[AutoPenalti]

The core is doing the fist (Intensifying).

I literally coined the term many years ago. What you see are mesovortices not a fist. It did that last night. It typically is such an explosive tower that it obscures the eye then wraps around.

So no IWRC yet?

[psyclone]

Okay. I have what may be a stupid question. Lets say that the current GFS is correct and it doesn't actually HIT the east coast near the Carolinas or Virginia. Will the rain and storm surge still be bad enough in Virginia Beach that my daughter and grandchildren should evacuate?

it's still too soon to attempt to nail down those types of specifics. They'll just need to continue to monitor updates from the NHC, NWS and emergency management.

[TheProfessor]

Okay. I have what may be a stupid question. Lets say that the current GFS is correct and it doesn't actually HIT the east coast near the Carolinas or Virginia. Will the rain and storm surge still be bad enough in Virginia Beach that my daughter and grandchildren should evacuate?

Current GFS has it missing the US Mainland I believe, and I don't know a lot about the Virgina landscape, but from what I read earlier in this thread. a direct or close hit to Virgin Beach would be pretty bad.

[gatorcane]

the trough is very strong even for this time of year. Could you imagine if that trough was not there digging into the Gulf and over Florida? Usually we see a trough like this more towards the end of October. The good thing for Florida is that the magic trough seems to show up right when we need it, at least for the last 10 years.

[AutoPenalti]

the trough is very strong even for this time of year. Could you imagine if that trough was not there digging into the Gulf and over Florida? Usually we see a trough like this more towards the end of October.

It looks to be slowing down though.