ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

Here's a 4 hr loop of San Juan's radar, make sure you speed up the loop, that does indeed look like the LLC passing between St Croix and PR.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displ ... duration=4

[HurriGuy]

Yeah there is no way the llc is by St. Croix.

[NDG]

BTW, recon missed the LLC well to the south, there's nothing but SSE winds near the previous fix.

[northjaxpro]

LLC has passed Saint Croix and is on its approach to the southeast coast of Puerto Rico at this moment. Saint Croix is getting the worst of that feederband on Erika's backside for sure.

[SouthDadeFish]

This storm is still quite disorganized. I thought it may have been getting its act together earlier, but that is not the case. Nonetheless, gusty winds in squalls and heavy rainfall can still occur.

[babycane]

Hey all, first time poster, long time lurker.

Something I'm noticing here is that the local news stations are really downplaying this. Advising people not to board up or go overboard preparing which is unheard of, any South Florida resident can tell you about the frenzied news coverage we get whenever we enter the Cone of Doom. Not this time, though, quite the opposite.

Local mets are doubtful this will make it to Florida at all. Being the panicky, neurotic person I am, I am already well prepared.

Just thought that was very interesting and I'm hoping they're right.

Thoughts are with those dealing with this now.

[SouthDadeFish]

LLC has passed Saint Croix and is on its approach to the southeast coast of Puerto Rico at this moment. Saint Croix is getting the worst of that feederband on Erika's backside for sure.

The feature you are following appears to be an eddy rotating around a mean vortex center.

[wjs3]

Hey all, first time poster, long time lurker.

Something I'm noticing here is that the local news stations are really downplaying this. Advising people not to board up or go overboard preparing which is unheard of, any South Florida resident can tell you about the frenzied news coverage we get whenever we enter the Cone of Doom. Not this time, though, quite the opposite.

Local mets are doubtful this will make it to Florida at all. Being the panicky, neurotic person I am, I am already well prepared.

Just thought that was very interesting and I'm hoping they're right.

Thoughts are with those dealing with this now.

Nice first post. Welcome to the board.

[Riptide]

Mabye the new center will cut through the Mona passage, that would be something.

[HurriGuy]

In Levi's video post today, he too believes the LLC has relocated to the south. Recon is also helping prove this.

[JonathanBelles]

Tonight's post:

http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/08/27/tr ... a-bahamas/

[gatorcane]

Evolution of the NHC 5-day track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/gr ... 5NLW.shtml

[northjaxpro]

LLC has passed Saint Croix and is on its approach to the southeast coast of Puerto Rico at this moment. Saint Croix is getting the worst of that feederband on Erika's backside for sure.

The feature you are following appears to be an eddy rotating around a mean vortex center.

It possibly could be SouthDadeFish. But it sure looks decent on radar. Still , I am leaning towards that being the LLC. Just my thoughts.

[NDG]

St Croix at 0z reported a pressure of 1006mb right before the LLC was passing close to them.
Now the pressure is up to 1013mb looks like the LLC passed just to the south of them if not over them.

Conditions at: TISX observed 27 August 2015 23:53 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 23.9°C (75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.72 inches Hg (1006.5 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1006.4 mb]
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 32 MPH (28 knots; 14.6 m/s)
gusting to 48 MPH (42 knots; 21.8 m/s)
Visibility: 4 miles (6 km)
Ceiling: 1300 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1300 feet AGL
broken clouds at 1800 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 2900 feet AGL
Present Weather: RA BR (rain, mist)
TISX 272353Z 06028G42KT 4SM RA BR BKN013 BKN018 OVC029 25/24 A2972 RMK AO2 PK W

Conditions at: TISX observed 28 August 2015 01:22 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.4°C (76°F) [RH = 96%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.90 inches Hg (1012.6 mb)
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 26 MPH (23 knots; 12.0 m/s)
gusting to 48 MPH (42 knots; 21.8 m/s)
Visibility: 2.00 miles (3.22 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1500 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)

[sponger]

Hey all, first time poster, long time lurker.

Something I'm noticing here is that the local news stations are really downplaying this. Advising people not to board up or go overboard preparing which is unheard of, any South Florida resident can tell you about the frenzied news coverage we get whenever we enter the Cone of Doom. Not this time, though, quite the opposite.

Local mets are doubtful this will make it to Florida at all. Being the panicky, neurotic person I am, I am already well prepared.

Just thought that was very interesting and I'm hoping they're right.

Thoughts are with those dealing with this now.

Congrats on your first post. You made it count!

[NDG]

In Levi's video post today, he too believes the LLC has relocated to the south. Recon is also helping prove this.

I don't see any evidence from the recon that it has relocated to the south.

[northjaxpro]

St Croix at 0z reported a pressure of 1006mb right before the LLC was passing close to them.
Now the pressure is up to 1013mb looks like the LLC passed just to the south of them if not over them.

Conditions at: TISX observed 27 August 2015 23:53 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 23.9°C (75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.72 inches Hg (1006.5 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1006.4 mb]
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 32 MPH (28 knots; 14.6 m/s)
gusting to 48 MPH (42 knots; 21.8 m/s)
Visibility: 4 miles (6 km)
Ceiling: 1300 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1300 feet AGL
broken clouds at 1800 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 2900 feet AGL
Present Weather: RA BR (rain, mist)


Hey NDG! Actually, I think the LLC passed right over Saint Croix a short time ago.
TISX 272353Z 06028G42KT 4SM RA BR BKN013 BKN018 OVC029 25/24 A2972 RMK AO2 PK W

Conditions at: TISX observed 28 August 2015 01:22 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.4°C (76°F) [RH = 96%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.90 inches Hg (1012.6 mb)
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 26 MPH (23 knots; 12.0 m/s)
gusting to 48 MPH (42 knots; 21.8 m/s)
Visibility: 2.00 miles (3.22 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1500 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)

[CrazyC83]

The old center appears to have dissipated. Agreed the real center is near St. Croix.

[Weatherboy1]

I don't know but I still think that the center/vortex just SE of PR is in fact the center of this thing. It's the same vortex that was spit out from the MLC earlier today, but that was later covered by convection. If Im right, I doubt Erika will cross directly over Hispanola - and that means a stronger storm down the road.

Again, just my opinion as a semi educated amateur; listen to the experts!

[northjaxpro]

St Croix at 0z reported a pressure of 1006mb right before the LLC was passing close to them.
Now the pressure is up to 1013mb looks like the LLC passed just to the south of them if not over them.

Conditions at: TISX observed 27 August 2015 23:53 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 23.9°C (75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.72 inches Hg (1006.5 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1006.4 mb]
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 32 MPH (28 knots; 14.6 m/s)
gusting to 48 MPH (42 knots; 21.8 m/s)
Visibility: 4 miles (6 km)
Ceiling: 1300 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1300 feet AGL
broken clouds at 1800 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 2900 feet AGL
Present Weather: RA BR (rain, mist)


o.
TISX 272353Z 06028G42KT 4SM RA BR BKN013 BKN018 OVC029 25/24 A2972 RMK AO2 PK W

Conditions at: TISX observed 28 August 2015 01:22 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.4°C (76°F) [RH = 96%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.90 inches Hg (1012.6 mb)
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 26 MPH (23 knots; 12.0 m/s)
gusting to 48 MPH (42 knots; 21.8 m/s)
Visibility: 2.00 miles (3.22 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1500 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)

Hey NDG! Actually, I think the LLC passed right over Saint Croix a short time ago.