Global model runs discussion

[GCANE]

Euro and CMC are pretty much in agreement riding the SA coast and then a recurve into the west Carib.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

FIS very consistant day-to-day with earlier recurve and tracking into Mona Passage.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

CAPE looks good.

[somethingfunny]

So, is this Caribbean modelstorm 91L?

[Weatherfreak000]

When I say ridge, I am referring to the upper levels. On the gfs there is a closed 1248 dm contour for a period of time next week, and the wave appears to be on the south side of this. This would expose the wave to some fairly stiff easterlies.

The Euro is blah through 168. The bad news continues.

With three invests out there, do you still feel the same way dwsqos2?

[HURAKAN]

GFS:


CMC:


NGP:


NGP has the new system in the open Atlantic and Tomás looping back towards Haiti

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS shows another Caribbean storm after Tomas and the 12z Euro is coming in with a storm as well.

GFS heads NE toward PR and strenghtens




12z Euro

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like the chance for the Atlantic to go Greek this year is looking better and better...

[sittingduck]

Is the spin at about 13N 80W the storm that the models are picking up on after Tomas?

[GCANE]

FIM has another spin-up in the Carib.

FIM was the first with genesis of Tomas and hit the nail on the head with Haiti landfall.

Looks like this will be a combo from the moist UL conditions in the Carib leftover from Tomas' convection and a breakoff of LL PV from the trof that scoops Tomas up.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Euro also showing 144 hrs out.

[cycloneye]

GFS has what may be considered,the last hurrah of the season? Is lights ahead but who knows if it occurs.GFS has sniffed very well very early the systems that later have developed this season.Image uploaded by imageshack to conserve it.

[Ivanhater]

Luis, I have been watching the GFS for the last few days and it is consistently developing that wave by the Islands..similar to Tomas.

[Ivanhater]

If the Caribbean system forms, the GFS has been consistently developing a couple of waves in the Atl approaching the Islands. If the GFS is correct, we hit the Greek and Alpha is on the map...

[Florida1118]

The Atl. would be VERY moist according to GFS. If this is true, we would be 2nd most active on record. Very interesting.

[cycloneye]

GFS continues with the end of the month TC. See 00z run loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS not backing down on the Caribbean storm

[Ntxw]

With the recent events of 94L (GFS etc showing quite a storm and not materializing) I believe a lot of these are overdone or won't happen. Perhaps the early and late season error phases. The chill is coming and cooler sea surface temps are closing into Caribbean.

[Macrocane]

I can't see the 12z run of the Euro, is anyone else having this problem?

[cycloneye]

I can't see the 12z run of the Euro, is anyone else having this problem?

I also can't see it on the lower resolution ,but here is the higher resolution of the 12z run at 240 hours.There is anything of interest.

[Macrocane]

Thanks cycloneye, storm2k has a solution as usual .