ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Has D-MAX begun yet?

[Weatherboy1]

The old center appears to have dissipated. Agreed the real center is near St. Croix.

Agreed. This is the same center we saw on visible satellite several hours ago before it was covered again by convection

[NDG]

I have no idea what the recon is doing that far south, is reporting nothing but southerly winds and a pressure of 1008mb when St Croix reported 1006mb just a little over an hour ago, they are investigating the wrong area.

[sponger]

Since the MLC is the strongest feature, if it clips DR, does that give it a better chance to emerge with a solid center? Seems like a lower LLC would feel more impacts from interacting with the coast.

[gatorcane]

You can see the nice pocket of increasingly favorable upper-level winds awaiting if Erika gets past the last hurdle of Hispaniola and the shear from a weakening upper-level low over Cuba:

[northjaxpro]

I have no idea what the recon is doing that far south, is reporting nothing but southerly winds and a pressure of 1008mb when St Croix reported 1006mb just a little over an hour ago, they are investigating the wrong area.

Agreed! Well, at least we now know pressure with the LLC is down to 1006 mb for the time being.

[gatorcane]

That LLC you guys are pointing out that past St. Croix at 00Z certainly looks to me like it could be the true LLC.

[sponger]

Evolution of the NHC 5-day track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/gr ... 5NLW.shtml

Thanks Gator cane! That is so awesome!!!

[NDG]

St Croix at 0z reported a pressure of 1006mb right before the LLC was passing close to them.
Now the pressure is up to 1013mb looks like the LLC passed just to the south of them if not over them.

Conditions at: TISX observed 27 August 2015 23:53 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 23.9°C (75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.72 inches Hg (1006.5 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1006.4 mb]
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 32 MPH (28 knots; 14.6 m/s)
gusting to 48 MPH (42 knots; 21.8 m/s)
Visibility: 4 miles (6 km)
Ceiling: 1300 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1300 feet AGL
broken clouds at 1800 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 2900 feet AGL
Present Weather: RA BR (rain, mist)


o.
TISX 272353Z 06028G42KT 4SM RA BR BKN013 BKN018 OVC029 25/24 A2972 RMK AO2 PK W

Conditions at: TISX observed 28 August 2015 01:22 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.4°C (76°F) [RH = 96%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.90 inches Hg (1012.6 mb)
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 26 MPH (23 knots; 12.0 m/s)
gusting to 48 MPH (42 knots; 21.8 m/s)
Visibility: 2.00 miles (3.22 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1500 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)

Hey NDG! Actually, I think the LLC passed right over Saint Croix a short time ago.

Yes maybe right over, if not very close. If you see the radar loop link I posted you can see when St Croix reported the lowest pressure the vorticity appear to be very close south of them, it makes sense with the wind direction they reported at that time.

[CrazyC83]

I have no idea what the recon is doing that far south, is reporting nothing but southerly winds and a pressure of 1008mb when St Croix reported 1006mb just a little over an hour ago, they are investigating the wrong area.

There was still a weak center there about 2 hours ago, it is gone now.

[galaxy401]

If what you guys are saying that the center is near St. Croix is true, does that decrease the chance of Erika hitting Hispaniola?

[Nimbus]

I think the LLC is a little north of track under that new convection in the NW side.
Probably miss Hispaniola if so.

[deltadog03]

Just finished up my live weather update. I swear that eddy/swirl near St. Croix is going to take over...I might not tho.

[deltadog03]

I think the LLC is a little north of track under that new convection in the NW side.
Probably miss Hispaniola if so.

I agree!

[deltadog03]

That LLC you guys are pointing out that past St. Croix at 00Z certainly looks to me like it could be the true LLC.

I agree...and if that is the case, it may miss the big island

[Hurricaneman]

It seems to be heading due west as of now per radar

[Steve H.]

yeah, they should be looking at the lcc we saw on the last visible, That is the dominant feature

[Weatherboy1]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/

Look at SJU radar right now - nice swirl just south of the eastern tip of PR. I believe that is the LLC that passed by St. Croix recently. Long story short, this is the center of Erika (in my opinion as a semieducated amateur

[NDG]

I think the LLC is near 17.7N & 65.5W based on 4 hr radar loop and the wind direction & pressure reports from St Croix during the past 4 hours or so.

[gatorcane]

That LLC you guys are pointing out that past St. Croix at 00Z certainly looks to me like it could be the true LLC.

I agree...and if that is the case, it may miss the big island

Yep and if you look at this RGB loop, you can see the LLC kindaof (just SE-SSE of the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico) and if you extrapolate the track, it would just clip Hispaniola or move just north of it following the ECMWF model track: