ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[windnrain]

Lots of models take it to land still. The ones that do are the ones that keep it west of guidance.

[CrazyC83]

http://northeastweatherwx.com/index.php ... l-changes/

This is my latest blog post, with a Northeast focus but describing all the possibilities.

[stormlover2013]

the ones that do or horrible models, CMC, navy, GFdl, bamm they are horrendous

[summersquall]

NWS Melbourne:

1102 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT [bold]THEN TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD[bold] AND
ACCELERATE WELL OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE LARGE SWELLS CAUSING VERY ROUGH POUNDING
SURF WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES...BEACH EROSION AND A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[Stormcenter]

Upwelling taking it's toll maybe?

Looks like it's weakening a bit, convection looks rather ragged. Is it weakening?

[Weatherwatcher98]

the ones that do or horrible models, CMC, navy, GFdl, bamm they are horrendous

Amen

[NDG]

Euro doesn't seem to be verifying right now, nor GFS. Wobbling away west.

Fact: Latest GFS and Euro are verifying so far, like I said earlier if it passes 75W this afternoon or starts tracking north right away then you guys can start questioning these two models.

[galaxy401]

windrain doesn't matter, its the upper pattern with what the models are seeing, this thing is going to be a fish, this isn't a forecast this is just using some common sense on what the main models are doing now with more data

Tell that to the Bahamas.

[windnrain]

Euro doesn't seem to be verifying right now, nor GFS. Wobbling away west.

Fact: Latest GFS and Euro are verifying so far, like I said earlier if it passes 75W this afternoon or starts tracking north right away then you guys can start questioning these two models.

Getting very close to crossing 75w.

[terstorm1012]

http://northeastweatherwx.com/index.php/2015/10/01/hurricane-joaquin-still-a-serious-threat-despite-model-changes/

This is my latest blog post, with a Northeast focus but describing all the possibilities.

very nice post and round up here. good job.

[nativefloridian]

Nice 24 frame loop showing the overall westward motion particularly in the last 10 frames. Really symmetrical too. Looking at the size of the storm and its seeming westward momentum, would it turn poleward more like a hummer than a porsche? (ie would it take a more westerly/wide turn to the north before hopefully missing additional populations?)

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_CARIBWIDE/animir.html

Yeah, these things don't turn on a dime they curve around. Which is where my concern for Nassau came into play as a directly landfall possibility

Pretty quick hop from Nasssua to West Palm, as well. Curve baby curve.

Well, based on the information provided so far.....Grand Bahama Island is 94.6 miles from West Palm Beach; Grand Bahama is under hurricane warning; Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles; so one would think, based on Joaquin's continued movement, that some portions of SE Florida would have TS Watches put up.........eventually?? As far as I can tell....IMO nothing is for certain where Joaquin is concerned! Just food for thought.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Euro doesn't seem to be verifying right now, nor GFS. Wobbling away west.

Fact: Latest GFS and Euro are verifying so far, like I said earlier if it passes 75W this afternoon or starts tracking north right away then you guys can start questioning these two models.

Getting very close to crossing 75w.

At the pace it is moving it will be a while before it was to pass 75W.

[gatorcane]

It's easy to see why the models turn it north well east of Florida. Look at that GIGANTIC trough digging all the way down into the southern Gulf!...and it only is going to dig deeper into Florida as the cut-off low develops over the Kentucky/Tennessee area and drops south. That is something you would see a month from now and it saved us here in Florida:

[LarryWx]

Euro doesn't seem to be verifying right now, nor GFS. Wobbling away west.

Fact: Latest GFS and Euro are verifying so far, like I said earlier if it passes 75W this afternoon or starts tracking north right away then you guys can start questioning these two models.

It looks like to me that it makes it to ~75.0 W, the furthest west forecast point on the 12Z Euro, by no later than 2 AM tonight. It is now near 74.4 W per satellites. The crucial time to see if it looks like it is going to pass 75.0 W shouldn't come til ~8PM EDT this evening at the earliest based on current 5-6 mph motion since it is ~35 miles from 75.0 W now. So, the crucial time should be mainly overnight to see if it is going to pass 75.0 W by any significant amount.

[Weatherwatcher98]

It's easy to see why the models turn it north well east of Florida. Look at that GIGANTIC trough digging all the way down into the southern Gulf!...and it only is going to dig deeper into Florida as the cut-off low develops over the Ohio river valley and drops south. That is something you would see a month from now and it saved us here in Florida:

Thank God for that and the cooler less humid Mornings

[stormlover2013]

didn't mean anything like that, I feel bad for the Bahamas sucks with what they are going through, Ive been through IKE and RIta and it sucks I was just meaning for the east coast

[nativefloridian]

windrain doesn't matter, its the upper pattern with what the models are seeing, this thing is going to be a fish, this isn't a forecast this is just using some common sense on what the main models are doing now with more data

Tell that to the Bahamas.

[AutoPenalti]

It's easy to see why the models turn it north well east of Florida. Look at that GIGANTIC trough digging all the way down into the southern Gulf!...and it only is going to dig deeper into Florida as the cut-off low develops over the Kentucky/Tennessee area and drops south. That is something you would see a month from now and it saved us here in Florida:

So far it's not doing its job. The trough is slowing down and Joaquin about to hit 75W in a couple of hours.

[Blinhart]

Euro doesn't seem to be verifying right now, nor GFS. Wobbling away west.

Fact: Latest GFS and Euro are verifying so far, like I said earlier if it passes 75W this afternoon or starts tracking north right away then you guys can start questioning these two models.

It looks like to me that it makes it to ~75.0 W, the furthest west forecast point on the 12Z Euro, by no later than 2 AM tonight. It is now near 74.4 W per satellites. The crucial time shouldn't come til ~8PM EDT this evening at the earliest based on current 5-6 mph motion since it is ~35 miles from 75.0 W now. So, the crucial time should be mainly overnight to see if it is going to pas 75.0 W by any significant amount.

What happens if it goes past 75.5???? I could see it getting there or further.

[LarryWx]

It's easy to see why the models turn it north well east of Florida. Look at that GIGANTIC trough digging all the way down into the southern Gulf!...and it only is going to dig deeper into Florida as the cut-off low develops over the Kentucky/Tennessee area and drops south. That is something you would see a month from now and it saved us here in Florida:

So far it's not doing its job. The trough is slowing down and Joaquin about to hit 75W in a couple of hours.

I don't think it can make it to 75.0 W before 8-10 PM based on current motion even if moves due west.