ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[BucMan2]

where can I get the run of UKMET? Thank You

[tolakram]

Weatherbell high rez shows whatever is left is extremely weak.

[deltadog03]

I think there is no doubt they shift the cone back WEST at 5pm. Not a lot, but prob. around what the GFS and HWRF are showing. I think the EURO is too weak, but if you blend it all......ready for this? a landfall point near MIA looks possible at this point then riding northward through the spine of FL. Euro goes to the eastern gom..hahah

[SunnyThoughts]

Is the GFDL the model that is suppose to replace the GFS at some point? Or am I remembering wrong on that?

[TheStormExpert]

Is the GFDL the model that is suppose to replace the GFS at some point? Or am I remembering wrong on that?

I believe it's the FIM model.

[Blown Away]

I think there is no doubt they shift the cone back WEST at 5pm. Not a lot, but prob. around what the GFS and HWRF are showing. I think the EURO is too weak, but if you blend it all......ready for this? a landfall point near MIA looks possible at this point then riding northward through the spine of FL. Euro goes to the eastern gom..hahah

Watched your facebook video track last night, thought it was crazy... Funny how things change... Spot on per the 11am prediction...

[BobHarlem]

Now is when some of the model sites start dying because of traffic overload.

[WeatherEmperor]

Is the GFDL the model that is suppose to replace the GFS at some point? Or am I remembering wrong on that?

I think the Hwrf was supposed to replace the Gfdl back in like 2007? If you ask me, they should get rid of both but thats just me hehe


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[AutoPenalti]

12Z HWRF, barely offshore West Palm Beach at 968MB:

I have no words on the intensity. However, that ridge is getting stronger and stronger on every run I've seen so far since this morning.

[Evil Jeremy]

a landfall point near MIA looks possible at this point then riding northward through the spine of FL. Euro goes to the eastern gom..hahah

So after days of model flops, and intense arguments on disagreements on the forum about Erika's final destination, we are essentially back to the same solution we had 2 days ago.

[tolakram]

[Hammy]

Based on the modeling, can this becoming a hurricane be ruled out at this point? The models seem to be trending weaker and weaker now especially the further west this gets without any latitude gains.

[chaser1]

HWRF appears to matching NHC's track (timing, not intensity), yet it appears that the EURO has It practically offshore Miami a full 12 hours earlier (72 hr.). I wasn't anticipating Tropical Storm Watches for any part of South Florida until perhaps tomm (Friday a.m.), but am now questioning if in fact NHC will take the quicker EURO into account and issue Watches for the Western Bahamas and extreme S. Florida tonight at 11:00 p.m.??

[tolakram]

[Frank2]

As someone here said about Danny, the models can project all they want, but it there isn't much of a system, well...

[SunnyThoughts]

Is the GFDL the model that is suppose to replace the GFS at some point? Or am I remembering wrong on that?

I think the Hwrf was supposed to replace the Gfdl back in like 2007? If you ask me, they should get rid of both but thats just me hehe


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LOL ok thanks

[ROCK]

a landfall point near MIA looks possible at this point then riding northward through the spine of FL. Euro goes to the eastern gom..hahah

So after days of model flops, and intense arguments on disagreements on the forum about Erika's final destination, we are essentially back to the same solution we had 2 days ago.

you are so right!!

[Evil Jeremy]

Based on the modeling, can this becoming a hurricane be ruled out at this point? The models seem to be trending weaker and weaker now especially the further west this gets without any latitude gains.

I would say a hurricane is unlikely but can not be ruled out. Erika will have about 36 hours between Hispaniola and Florida, that's plenty of time.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

So at this point it is still not a sure thing, but becoming more likely of a close brush with S. FLA and points north. The big question I have now is how strong will it be, the models seem to be showing a weak TS. We all know intensity forecast out more than a few days is not that great, and pro's care to chime in on a guess.

[BobHarlem]

That part of Florida needs that type of rain like a hole in the head. Slow ride up from Venice to Big Bend would make for serious flooding after the last few months.