ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Euro doesn't seem to be verifying right now, nor GFS. Wobbling away west.

Fact: Latest GFS and Euro are verifying so far, like I said earlier if it passes 75W this afternoon or starts tracking north right away then you guys can start questioning these two models.

It looks like to me that it makes it to ~75.0 W, the furthest west forecast point on the 12Z Euro, by no later than 2 AM tonight. It is now near 74.4 W per satellites. The crucial time shouldn't come til ~8PM EDT this evening at the earliest based on current 5-6 mph motion. So, the crucial time should be mainly overnight to see if it is going to pas 75.0 W by any significant amount.

Exactly right which by then the Euro and GFS has it to start with the very slow northerly track during the day tomorrow before going NE late tomorrow night into Saturday.

[Blinhart]

It's easy to see why the models turn it north well east of Florida. Look at that GIGANTIC trough digging all the way down into the southern Gulf!...and it only is going to dig deeper into Florida as the cut-off low develops over the Kentucky/Tennessee area and drops south. That is something you would see a month from now and it saved us here in Florida:

So far it's not doing its job. The trough is slowing down and Joaquin about to hit 75W in a couple of hours.

I can see that Trough pushing it SW if it continues slowing down and splitting up that troughs at this time of year have been known to do.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

[/quote]

Pretty quick hop from Nasssua to West Palm, as well. Curve baby curve.[/quote]

Well, based on the information provided so far.....Grand Bahama Island is 94.6 miles from West Palm Beach; Grand Bahama is under hurricane warning; Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles; so one would think, based on Joaquin's continued movement, that some portions of SE Florida would have TS Watches put up.........eventually?? As far as I can tell....IMO nothing is for certain where Joaquin is concerned! Just food for thought.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

The closest the NHC has J getting to florida is 400 miles and TS winds extend 100 miles to the west so no need for any warnings in Florida even considering the margin of error.

[Weatherwatcher98]

didn't mean anything like that, I feel bad for the Bahamas sucks with what they are going through, Ive been through IKE and RIta and it sucks I was just meaning for the east coast

I think we all just tend to focus on the United states sometimes, due to the personal connection and huge impact felt over a great amount of Real estate. When a Major Storm is threatening we tend to keep our concern close to home. I think it's just Human Nature and we don't mean any ill will. We just get caught up in the moment.

[curtadams]

I don't think that if it passes 75W the Euro/GFS solution is busted. That's a mighty trough coming through and I don't see how a hundred miles or so in any direction will make a big difference in what happens. You'd expect that if it's a little west of prediction now it'll be a little west in a few days but the overall result is the same once the trough picks it up. Landfall/landbrush would be somewhat more likely, sure, but that's not a "bust".

[NDG]

Fact: Latest GFS and Euro are verifying so far, like I said earlier if it passes 75W this afternoon or starts tracking north right away then you guys can start questioning these two models.

It looks like to me that it makes it to ~75.0 W, the furthest west forecast point on the 12Z Euro, by no later than 2 AM tonight. It is now near 74.4 W per satellites. The crucial time shouldn't come til ~8PM EDT this evening at the earliest based on current 5-6 mph motion since it is ~35 miles from 75.0 W now. So, the crucial time should be mainly overnight to see if it is going to pas 75.0 W by any significant amount.

What happens if it goes past 75.5???? I could see it getting there or further.

I don't think nothing much to the final track, the question to the Euro and GFS would had been if it would had started a northerly track by now and picking up speed, a chance that it would be getting caught by the cut off ULL and drawn into the Carolinas like certain models are and were showing yesterday.

[Happy Pelican]

http://northeastweatherwx.com/index.php/2015/10/01/hurricane-joaquin-still-a-serious-threat-despite-model-changes/

This is my latest blog post, with a Northeast focus but describing all the possibilities.

Great blog post! I took Sandy on the chin, still rebuilding and very nervous at the moment.

[emeraldislenc]

I AGREE great post!

[sicktght311]

It's easy to see why the models turn it north well east of Florida. Look at that GIGANTIC trough digging all the way down into the southern Gulf!...and it only is going to dig deeper into Florida as the cut-off low develops over the Kentucky/Tennessee area and drops south. That is something you would see a month from now and it saved us here in Florida:

Kinda hard to imagine any kind of solution besides OTS with that front parked right on the east coast. Theres no way Joaquin could even get close

[Alyono]

weakening now? I'm not sure which hurricane some are looking at

[nativefloridian]

Pretty quick hop from Nasssua to West Palm, as well. Curve baby curve.[/quote]

Well, based on the information provided so far.....Grand Bahama Island is 94.6 miles from West Palm Beach; Grand Bahama is under hurricane warning; Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles; so one would think, based on Joaquin's continued movement, that some portions of SE Florida would have TS Watches put up.........eventually?? As far as I can tell....IMO nothing is for certain where Joaquin is concerned! Just food for thought.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

The closest the NHC has J getting to florida is 400 miles and TS winds extend 100 miles to the west so no need for any warnings in Florida even considering the margin of error.[/quote]

I hope you're on point. Being born and raised in S. Florida, I've been through my share of Florida hurricanes, from my first memorable Hurricane Betsy in 1965, at the tender age of 8, through Wilma in 2005. So, I for one, certainly don't want this thing anywhere near here (or any other place for that matter). My heart goes out to everyone in the Bahamas that are enduring, and will continue to endure, this presently slow moving storm for a while longer.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Extratropical94]

Scheduled departure was 40 minutes ago, with sampling time from 7pm to 1am.
The were late this morning too, probably because they didn't need the full 3.5 hours of flight time to reach Joaquin.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72
       A. 01/2330Z,02/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 0911A JOAQUIN
       C. 01/1930Z
       D. 24.4N 74.4W
       E. 01/2300Z TO 02/0500Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT


[daylynsmom]

I've been cringing on how close it's been to FL all day. Especially with all the "what if's"

Pretty quick hop from Nasssua to West Palm, as well. Curve baby curve.[/quote]

Well, based on the information provided so far.....Grand Bahama Island is 94.6 miles from West Palm Beach; Grand Bahama is under hurricane warning; Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles; so one would think, based on Joaquin's continued movement, that some portions of SE Florida would have TS Watches put up.........eventually?? As far as I can tell....IMO nothing is for certain where Joaquin is concerned! Just food for thought.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

The closest the NHC has J getting to florida is 400 miles and TS winds extend 100 miles to the west so no need for any warnings in Florida even considering the margin of error.[/quote]

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I've lived in South Florida for 61 years and have also seen many storms and have seen many pass through the Bahamas and miss Florida. When model consensus is this tight on a miss of this many miles I don't get excited.

[WYNweather]

interesting look at the winds

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 26.76,3000

[daylynsmom]

I've lived in South Florida for 61 years and have also seen many storms and have seen many pass through the Bahamas and miss Florida. When model consensus is this tight on a miss of this many miles I don't get excited.

This season has been so unpredictable. I don't get excited, just a bit concerned when it's sitting right there spinning.

[Bocadude85]

Pretty quick hop from Nasssua to West Palm, as well. Curve baby curve.[/quote]

Well, based on the information provided so far.....Grand Bahama Island is 94.6 miles from West Palm Beach; Grand Bahama is under hurricane warning; Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles; so one would think, based on Joaquin's continued movement, that some portions of SE Florida would have TS Watches put up.........eventually?? As far as I can tell....IMO nothing is for certain where Joaquin is concerned! Just food for thought.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

The closest the NHC has J getting to florida is 400 miles and TS winds extend 100 miles to the west so no need for any warnings in Florida even considering the margin of error.[/quote]

If Joaquin makes it as far west as Andros Island then I will start to worry. As of right now I would be surprised if he makes it west of 75.5

[Cyclenall]

On the water vapor loop the trough is retrograding if you look around coastal Georgia. (bending back to the west).
Does anyone know how far south the trouph axis was supposed to get over the SE US? Its awfully far south for what I was expecting.

Joaquin is a cat 4 now so a tremendous volume of outflow is pumping up the area of high pressure in which the storm is embedded.

That can change the upper air pattern rather quickly. There is a spear head of convection just off Cape Canaveral that is starting to retreat north, probably the southern terminus of the frontal boundary.

*Cut*

That was a fantastic post Nimbus.

This is an unique hurricane for the Bahamas in terms of the direction its coming down on them from and the slow movement. This could be one of the worst hurricanes for the central Bahamas of all time.

Aside from the Bahamas, I'm done/gone.

[emeraldislenc]

If it makes it to 75.5 what would that imply?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I've lived in South Florida for 61 years and have also seen many storms and have seen many pass through the Bahamas and miss Florida. When model consensus is this tight on a miss of this many miles I don't get excited.

This season has been so unpredictable. I don't get excited, just a bit concerned when it's sitting right there spinning.

Just to give some perspective, if this storm was at the tip of the Yucatan and forecast to go into Louisiana would you be concerned? The distances are comparable.