WPAC: MEKKHALA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

00Z GFS




06Z GFS

[euro6208]

EURO - Very conservative



06Z NAVGEM



06Z Parallel



All agree that a tropical storm or a typhoon will impact Yap...

EURO only model thus far to have this make landfall over the Philippines...GFS, GFS Parallel narrowly misses Catanduanes Island...NAVGEM by a bigger margin but still uncomfortable for those in the Philippines...CMC recurves this safely out to sea...

[euro6208]

Meanwhile...

Latest JMA



Minor depression in 48 hours...

[euro6208]

12Z GFS not backing down...

Deepens Mekkhala to strongest ever at 955 mb and makes landfall over Catanduanes Island, also known as the *LAND OF THE HOWLING WINDS*. Probrably the most hit area in the world for TC and Category 5's...

The Philippine Sea is notorious for developing the world's strongest tropical cyclones...

[euro6208]

A small anticyclone developing right over the LLC providing low shear which has been plaguing 92W from developing...The general path has decreased in shear over the past 24 hours...

[ManilaTC]

92W INVEST 150112 0000 7.8N 148.1E WPAC 20 1003

[ohno]

It has that look of dissipation by tomorrow...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It has that look of dissipation by tomorrow...

It has that look of further organization by tomorrow. As you see, the circulation and its center is much more evident than before. I think of a TD within the next 72 hours.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Right now, IMO it is possible that there will be a TS (at least) before Saturday, due to steadily improving conditions.

[ohno]

It has that look of dissipation by tomorrow...

It has that look of further organization by tomorrow. As you see, the circulation and its center is much more evident than before. I think of a TD within the next 72 hours.

Chill...I am trying to jinx it. The pope is coming.

[euro6208]

Remains MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N
151.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 145.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE LLCC IS
SITUATED EQUATORWARD OF AN EXTENSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS AIDING SPINUP OF THE LLCC, AND
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON SUPPORTIVE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MODEL
FORECASTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 120658
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
458 PM CHST MON JAN 12 2015

PMZ161-171-172-122100-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-
458 PM CHST MON JAN 12 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT YAP STATE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 520 MILES EAST OF YAP AT
ABOUT 9N146E. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD YAP STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCLEMENT
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CHUUK
STATE THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU BY TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR CHUUK...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHUUK STATE
THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT. RECENT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF NEARLY 8 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND HAVE SATURATED
SOILS ON CHUUK. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. WINDS AT
CHUUK HAVE SUBSIDED AND ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED A THREAT. COMBINED
SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM CHUUK.

FOR YAP AND KOROR...

LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
NORTH OF YAP AND KOROR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY
BUT FLOODING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH COULD
AFFECT YAP STATE BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE LOWER WIND
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AFFECT THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE FOR YAP STATE
AND FOR THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER
TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNDER WMO HEADER WHPQ40 PGUM FOR
INFORMATION REGARDING HAZARDOUS SURF.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TO THE MOVEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. PLEASE STAY INFORMED ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING ANY MARINE
ACTIVITIES OR INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. LISTEN FOR UPDATES FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

$$

WILLIAMS/SIMPSON

[euro6208]

92W INVEST 150112 1200 9.0N 144.6E WPAC 20 1007

Latest JTWC position...

South of Guam...

[ManilaTC]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 143E WEST SLOWLY.

[euro6208]

Wow indeed...it's finally starting to come together...TCFA alert!

[euro6208]

up to 1.0!

TXPQ22 KNES 130324
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 13/0232Z

C. 8.6N

D. 142.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS JUST OVER .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A
DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT = 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[euro6208]

NWS Guam

Very unsettled weather across Micronesia as 92W slowly develops

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF GUAM NEAR 9N142E...MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST.

NESIA...
SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W IS CENTERED 300 MILES EAST OF
YAP NEAR 9N142E...AND CONTINUES DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST
TOWARD YAP STATE. EXPECT SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG WINDS TO
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO YAP STATE
ON WEDNESDAY. GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

FOR KOROR...UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EVEN AS 92W PASSES TO THE
NORTH...AS MOST OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU. SIMILAR TO YAP...GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS TO THE WEST
AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

[euro6208]

Very wet and breezy day no need for aircon tonight

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 130905
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
705 PM CHST TUE JAN 13 2015

PMZ161-171-172-132100-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-
705 PM CHST TUE JAN 13 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT YAP STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF
YAP...125 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS ISLAND...AND ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI...IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...IT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO YAP STATE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE PASSING WELL NORTH OF PALAU WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FOR YAP STATE...

LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO FAIS ISLAND AND ULITHI EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND JUST NORTH OF YAP DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AS IT PASSES...THE DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE FOR
FLOODING RAINS. IN ADDITION...WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 40 MPH IN AND NEAR SHOWERS...CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS...IF THE
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED.

HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE FOR YAP
STATE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FOR THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNDER WMO
HEADER WHPQ40 PGUM FOR INFORMATION REGARDING HAZARDOUS SURF.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. PLEASE STAY INFORMED ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION...AND IF POSSIBLE POSTPONE ANY MARINE
ACTIVITIES OR INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. LISTEN FOR UPDATES FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

$$

BIRCHARD

[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 130904
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 13/0832Z

C. 8.6N

D. 142.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS/TMI

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS OVER .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 1.0. MET AND PT = 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

13/0556Z 8.4N 142.5E TMI


...KIBLER