WPAC: HIGOS - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Clearly an evident circulation but it just needs more convection and needs to organize more

[euro6208]

JTWC remains MEDIUM

ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZFEB2015//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.9N
165.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 160.7E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST
OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A WEAK, ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SOME
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH IS ALSO SEEN IN
THE 060318Z N-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME (10 TO 20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENT FLOW. NUMERIC DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE
SLOW BROAD DEVELOPMENT WITH OVERALL LITTLE DEEP CIRCULATION FORMING
IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 060912
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 06/0832Z

C. 8.9N

D. 159.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I would place it to low, and would go with the ECMWF scenario.

[euro6208]

Circulation is more pronounce with convection wrapping tightly towards the LLC. Wind shear is low with a developing anticyclone developing right over it...I agree with JTWC's MEDIUM assessment...850mb vorticity is more defined...

I would place it to low, and would go with the ECMWF scenario.

Why do you place it to low? explain?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Circulation is more pronounce only thing it's lacking is convection

It's not only the convection, but it is a poorly organized circulation yet at the same time it is evident.

[euro6208]

Moving northwest...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Circulation is more pronounce with convection wrapping tightly towards the LLC. Wind shear is low with a developing anticyclone developing right over it...I agree with JTWC's MEDIUM assessment...850mb vorticity is more defined...

Why do you place it to low? explain?

Just because you disagree with mean does not mean that you need to ask for such explanation

I'm saying LOW because it is clearly struggling (but you can see a clear evident circulation), but I am referring to the past 24 hours. You should know more on how they give chances for tropical cyclogenesis, such as criteria. It is surrounded over an area of increasing shear, but I never actually said that it will not form. By ECMWF scenario, I mean its track. They actually have a better record than the GFS in my years of tracking. It may form later in the weekend, or sooner if it escapes the sheared area (where it is now) but it is moving too slowly.

[euro6208]

Circulation is more pronounce with convection wrapping tightly towards the LLC. Wind shear is low with a developing anticyclone developing right over it...I agree with JTWC's MEDIUM assessment...850mb vorticity is more defined...

Why do you place it to low? explain?

Just because you disagree with mean does not mean that you need to ask for such explanation

I'm saying LOW because it is clearly struggling (but you can see a clear evident circulation), but I am referring to the past 24 hours. You should know more on how they give chances for tropical cyclogenesis, such as criteria. It is surrounded over an area of increasing shear, but I never actually said that it will not form. By ECMWF scenario, I mean its track. They actually have a better record than the GFS in my years of tracking. It may form later in the weekend, or sooner if it escapes the sheared area (where it is now) but it is moving too slowly.

Ok thanks for that explanation...

[euro6208]

Models are all over the place in regards to it's track...

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 150206 1200 9.0N 158.7E WPAC 20 1007

Latest JTWC FIX...

[euro6208]

EURO has a weakening tropical storm approaching Guam and is the southernmost model while NAVGEM, CMC, and GFS continues to recurve but varies on it's timing...

[Alyono]

this is officially a depression

[euro6208]

Up to 1.5! I sense a TCFA could be issued soon..

TXPQ23 KNES 062123
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 06/2101Z

C. 9.4N

D. 157.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING ON LOG10 SPRIAL
PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

06/1830Z 9.4N 157.8E SSMIS


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

NWS GUAM

94W HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THE ASCATS AND RSCAT ALL MISSED THE CIRCULATION ON THEIR RECENT
PASSES...BUT 94W NOW APPEARS FROM SATELLITE TO BE CENTERED NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI NEAR 9N158E. BUT THE DEEPEST AND STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...EAST OF 160E. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF 94W WILL BE SLOW. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...STILL SHOW 94W MOVING ON A NORTHWARD
TRACK WELL EAST OF THE MARIANAS...AND WOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO
EFFECT ON MARIANAS WEATHER OTHER THAN TO REINFORCE THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION.

[euro6208]

More models trending south and west with euro...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Successfully escaped the shear zone. Now, it's time to see consolidation and intensification

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO if it wants to get stronger, it has to move more to the west because up north there's a ton of shear... If it follows the motion by ECMWF and the majority of dynamic models then it has a bigger chances of being a typhoon. Shear over the west and southwest is low-moderate and decreasing. Nice mid-level pattern for a TD tho

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Soon to be named as Tropical Storm Higos

TD
Issued at 01:00 UTC, 7 February 2015

<Analyses at 07/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N9°40'(9.7°)
E157°40'(157.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°30'(10.5°)
E155°30'(155.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The usually conservative NAVGEM is quite realistic, showing a westerly track with a strong typhoon. :O