ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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bella_may
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2001 Postby bella_may » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:24 pm

I mean it HAS to turn eventually, right? That's a big trough in the gulf
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2002 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:25 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:If it makes it to 75.5 what would that imply?

If there is no signs of some sort of poleward turn then it could be a problem.
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Re: Re:

#2003 Postby daylynsmom » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:25 pm

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:
daylynsmom wrote:
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:I've lived in South Florida for 61 years and have also seen many storms and have seen many pass through the Bahamas and miss Florida. When model consensus is this tight on a miss of this many miles I don't get excited.


This season has been so unpredictable. I don't get excited, just a bit concerned when it's sitting right there spinning.


Just to give some perspective, if this storm was at the tip of the Yucatan and forecast to go into Louisiana would you be concerned? The distances are comparable.


Most likely not. Good point.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2004 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:25 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:I AGREE great post! :flag:
which one ?
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#2005 Postby Cuber » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:26 pm

Watching and waiting now is like watching and waiting on Jeanne and Frances in 2004 ... except this time nothing is boarded up.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2006 Postby Raebie » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:27 pm

Would love to get some thoughts on the rain situation for the Carolinas over the next 3 day. Could be catastrophic flooding from the looks of things, but have seen no mention of it here.
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Re: Re:

#2007 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:31 pm

There's something about a storm in the Bahamas that raises the hairs on the backs of Floridian's necks so I understand the concern but a strong trough over Florida and a forecast buffer of 400 miles takes away all concern for me.
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#2008 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:31 pm

The eye is looking real good now.

Image
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2009 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:34 pm

Could this make a run at Cat 5??? Scary!!!
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2010 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:34 pm

Stadium tightening eye developing in place in my opinion.
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#2011 Postby Blinhart » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:35 pm

I'm sorry people saying it won't get with in 400 miles of the US. I'm sorry it is already within 250 miles of the US so that is just wrong. With the wind field so large it wouldn't take much for TS strength winds to impact the US.
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#2012 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:36 pm

wouldn't be surprised if this is nearly a cat 5 now
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Re:

#2013 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:37 pm

Alyono wrote:wouldn't be surprised if this is nearly a cat 5 now
I agree read back at my post Crazy!!!!! Prayers to the Bahamas
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2014 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:38 pm

Could be doing stationary wobbles right now and about to exit poleward.



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#2015 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:38 pm

Image
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#2016 Postby WPBWeather » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:38 pm

Why does it still say Cat 3 on Storm2K graphics?
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#2017 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:40 pm

I think we are about to get our northern component.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2018 Postby curtadams » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:40 pm

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:Could this make a run at Cat 5??? Scary!!!

It's *possible* - the latest HWRF takes it there. However, the HWRF is typically very bullish and even the normally very bullish GFDL does not take it to Cat 5. So, the odds are definitely against it.
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Re:

#2019 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:41 pm

Blinhart wrote:I'm sorry people saying it won't get with in 400 miles of the US. I'm sorry it is already within 250 miles of the US so that is just wrong. With the wind field so large it wouldn't take much for TS strength winds to impact the US.


By my calculations J is 375 miles from the closest point in Florida.

http://www.freemaptools.com/how-far-is-it-between.htm
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#2020 Postby tatertawt24 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:43 pm

Anyone know the diameter of the eye?
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