ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[psyclone]

Complacency continues to pay well. thankfully (always subject to change of course)...in the interim time to head to the beach later today and enjoy the beautiful coast..

[stormlover2013]

oh no doubt florida I feel is getting whatever is left of erika

[ronjon]

Wxman57..I agree with your assessment but really how much difference in the sensible weather is there between a 50 mph TS and remant low with thunderstorms? Just think NHC is being cautious in case this thing does strengthen into a bona fide tropical cyclone. I did notice that convection is again blowing up near the low level center and shear does appear to have relaxed slightly from the ULL just north of Cuba.

[SouthFLTropics]

Unless the NHC sees something we don't then this may miss the DR to the South. If that happens and she manages not to open up then we better lock up the good booze because the GOMers are going to start flooding in after this becomes more of a Gulf threat.

Line of the day so far!!! Priceless!!! Stash the Patron and Grey Goose!!!

SFT

[deltadog03]

wow...just wow...LMBO Question, I don't recall seeing/remembering any "weaker" systems/LLC going through the big mountains. We all know well organized systems and hurricanes have been destroyed by it, but I wonder how much the mountains will really effect this "weaker" system. I wonder if it just dances/bounces around the island? Any thoughts?

[AdamFirst]

Erika's LLC is barely hanging on. It probably wouldn't qualify for an upgrade to a TS if recon went out to investigate a disturbance and found what they're seeing now. NHC track shifts west, which I agree with, but I think they didn't go far enough west. What I don't agree with is the projected intensity of 50 kts in the FL Straits, though I know they're just being a bit overly cautious so that people will still pay attention to Erika. I think it's going to weaken to a remnant low or depression over the DR and Cuba and maybe reach minimal TS strength in the eastern Gulf - west of the FL Peninsula. Could just remain an area of squalls that tracks northward across the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula Sunday night through Tuesday. Mainly a rain event for Florida. The hurricane threat there is now very low.

How do you feel about chances of regeneration if Hispaniola does eat Erika up?

[SeGaBob]

How are the conditions in the Gulf going to be around the time it moves over it? (if it moves over it)

[wxman57]

Erika's LLC is barely hanging on. It probably wouldn't qualify for an upgrade to a TS if recon went out to investigate a disturbance and found what they're seeing now. NHC track shifts west, which I agree with, but I think they didn't go far enough west. What I don't agree with is the projected intensity of 50 kts in the FL Straits, though I know they're just being a bit overly cautious so that people will still pay attention to Erika. I think it's going to weaken to a remnant low or depression over the DR and Cuba and maybe reach minimal TS strength in the eastern Gulf - west of the FL Peninsula. Could just remain an area of squalls that tracks northward across the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula Sunday night through Tuesday. Mainly a rain event for Florida. The hurricane threat there is now very low.

Chances for NC rain with this scenario?

I'd say your chances of some rain in the Carolinas are good next Wed/Thu as Erika's remnants move up the East U.S. Coast. Erika will have long-since dissipated, though.

[wxman57]

How are the conditions in the Gulf going to be around the time it moves over it? (if it moves over it)

Fair amount of southwesterly wind shear in the Gulf. Shear increases westward across the Gulf from Florida.

[Raebie]

Erika's LLC is barely hanging on. It probably wouldn't qualify for an upgrade to a TS if recon went out to investigate a disturbance and found what they're seeing now. NHC track shifts west, which I agree with, but I think they didn't go far enough west. What I don't agree with is the projected intensity of 50 kts in the FL Straits, though I know they're just being a bit overly cautious so that people will still pay attention to Erika. I think it's going to weaken to a remnant low or depression over the DR and Cuba and maybe reach minimal TS strength in the eastern Gulf - west of the FL Peninsula. Could just remain an area of squalls that tracks northward across the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula Sunday night through Tuesday. Mainly a rain event for Florida. The hurricane threat there is now very low.

Chances for NC rain with this scenario?

I'd say your chances of some rain in the Carolinas are good next Wed/Thu as Erika's remnants move up the East U.S. Coast. Erika will have long-since dissipated, though.

Awesome...we just need the rain, not the wind.

[fci]

evil it will be a threat to Florida no matter what, rain wise and etc even if its not a strong storm, I am looking at the NAM model and that trough looks strong

If it gets destroyed by Hispanola it never even gets to Florida.

[allicat1214]

Unless the NHC sees something we don't then this may miss the DR to the South. If that happens and she manages not to open up then we better lock up the good booze because the GOMers are going to start flooding in after this becomes more of a Gulf threat.

Line of the day so far!!! Priceless!!! Stash the Patron and Grey Goose!!!

SFT

Yea, and we're all agitated anyway with all the Katrina 10 year crap.... so it's not going to take much to set us off!

[BoudreauxWPB]

NHC continues to say, "Move Northwest $!## it"

At this point I'm inclined to believe that it keeps moving WNW to the Yucutan, trough comes in and recurves ala Wilma.

Ah man, I really don't want to hear that.

[KWT]

wow...just wow...LMBO Question, I don't recall seeing/remembering any "weaker" systems/LLC going through the big mountains. We all know well organized systems and hurricanes have been destroyed by it, but I wonder how much the mountains will really effect this "weaker" system. I wonder if it just dances/bounces around the island? Any thoughts?

I've wondered that recently as well.

With a poorly defined system surely the center will be able to try to relocate towards the deeper convection again and reform. I seem to remember Gustav being done a number over Hispaniola and then reforming a new strong circulation nearly due south of the previous one. I'm not saying this is like that as the atmosphere is no where near as good aloft BUT it could well happen.

[Sanibel]

In the cone again. I knew it.


Both Danny and Erika defied NHC tracking and stayed under the islands.


Now to see if they underestimated intensity and we've got a monster coming our way.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFLTropics]

I could be wrong but I think we are seeing Erika's final hours...LLC looks to be heading straight towards the highest peaks on Hispaniola.

[AutoPenalti]

I could be wrong but I think we are seeing Erika's final hours...LLC looks to be heading straight towards the highest peaks on Hispaniola.

Whatever happened to the multiple vorticies and the fight for dominance?

[DrinknByTheBay]

This thing ain't going over the mountains. It just will not make that turn while it is so weak and while all the convective activity is tugging it to the southeast.

My bet is that it continues to the west while it is weak, barely clipping the southern spur of Hispanola and maybe the eastern spur of Haiti, then paralleling Cuba's SOUTHERN coast, (MAYBE re-strengthening a bit at that point), to finally cross Cuba around the Isle of Pines area as a strong tropical storm and come up into the GOM and up the WESTERN side of Florida while strengthening into a hurricane.

Just you watch. Once the models actually get a good initialization with the center at 17 N, 69 W (SOUTH of Hispanola), they will realize that they need to jump west.

Edit: by the way, I am not a professional met, don't take my word on it, yadda yadda yadda. ; )

I agree with this line of thinking. I just can't see how anyone is on this NW movement until, you know, it actually starts to move that way. The models obviously dont have a firm grip on this system. This thing has gone basically west for awhile, and it's still staying weak and disorganized. This to me means more west (staying south) it will go relative to the forecasted track.

As for potential strength? Pure gambling at this point. It was supposed to be dead Wednesday so I'll give her the benefit of the doubt she keeps trucking.

[ObsessedMiami]

I could be wrong but I think we are seeing Erika's final hours...LLC looks to be heading straight towards the highest peaks on Hispaniola.

Erika's "final hours" have been going on for the last four days, according to posters

[psyclone]

I think dissipation is the most likely scenario..it's interesting that it's almost dissipated without even engaging hostile topography. we'll see if anything happens on the other side.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.