ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[ronjon]

I can see Erika start to build convection to the north of Hispanola. it has a really large broad circulation so I don't see any reason the system will not strengthen slowly once it clears the big island.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[AutoPenalti]

Don't know if anyone has posted this lately

Yikes. Erika is going to struggle.

[ROCK]

Recon seems to be consistently find the center to be just south of due west. Well south of the coast. I think this is caught in the easterly flow over the Caribbean.

I said that like what 30 pages ago... I think the main center is moving west or south of west below DR....But vis loop can play tricks with the eyes...plus I am old..

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon seems to be consistently find the center to be just south of due west. Well south of the coast. I think this is caught in the easterly flow over the Caribbean.

I said that like what 30 pages ago... I think the main center is moving west or south of west below DR....But vis loop can play tricks with the eyes...plus I am old..

Amen brother...my glasses are right here next to the monitor (glasses 5 years ago I would have laughed at)

[Nimbus]

Be interesting to see whats left of the system when it gets just north of Jeremie Haiti.
Oh wait, its a broad low with mid level circulation.
Does Cuba need rain?
A track up the spine of Cuba like..
Oh wait that's already been posted.
Sorry carry on..

[wjs3]

Just feels like focusing on the "LLC" or the various swirls that pop up is the wrong way to look at this. It seems more important to look at the general motion of the overall convective mass. I think that Hispaniola will kill off whatever circulation(s) there is (are) and anything new that gets going--if it does--comes out of whatever convection remains. Hence whether the swirl(s) go W or SW or whatever seems less relevant to me.

Anyway, I'm less concerned about tracking center(s) and where they are going as far as this storm is concerned and more concerned with overall motion, especially, given the state it's in.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[galaxy401]

At this rate, I feel Erika will never turn north and will end up hitting the Yutacan.

[Frank2]

Too much micro analysis - if you look at this visible loop, it really tells the story - a weak, disorganized system at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Too much micro analysis - if you look at this visible loop, it really tells the story - a weak, disorganized system at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I wouldn't say weak... Maybe it's weak as far as the winds go but people certainly shouldn't down play it because it's bringing massive amounts of rain to the Islands in the region.

[Steve H.]

I agree. I am not going to take my eyes off this. A broad circulation over or near the DR will stay intact better than a closed surface feature. Go a feeling that chatter will pick up once this gets past the DR. A lot of debris clouds north of the island. The focal point of the broad circulation should stay south of the taller mountains.

[Frank2]

That is true, but was just making the comparison to a well-developed tropical cyclone...

[Steve H.]

She is the only game in town right now. But there is still potential here.

[AutoPenalti]

Doesn't Erika still have room to intensify rapidly once she passes DR?

[Weatherboy1]

At this rate, I feel Erika will never turn north and will end up hitting the Yutacan.

Maybe come out the other side of Mexico and finally get her act together in the much more favorable Pacific basin?

[SouthFloridian92]

Hopefully if Erika stays together then hopefully work and classes will be cancelled and I can just stay at home and relax.

[Ntxw]

Had she taken the northern route above the antilles to begin with, I think this would've been much more formidable system. Instead she went into the Caribbean which we all have seen the hostilities for TC's.

[tailgater]

Too much micro analysis - if you look at this visible loop, it really tells the story - a weak, disorganized system at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Still looks good on the MIMIC
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

[Sanibel]

Just had a phone call with a relative about keeping storm plans in mind.



We live in the extreme exposure A Zone similar to Bolivar.

[tolakram]

More track contortions in the 2pm update.

woops. Not out yet

[tailgater]

Ya think