ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[emeraldislenc]

Thunderstorm with very heavy rain here !

[sicktght311]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
Forgive my lack of experience perhaps, but i'm having a hard time seeing where and how J can get moving to the Northeast. The ULL to the east is advancing to the west HARD and that sliver of exit has all but seemed to almost close. It almost looks like another 6 hours and J will have nowhere to go but right up the east coast. Doesnt look like it could go anywhere North, let alone north east with that giant ULL pushing right into it

[Ken Lucas]

Wonder if by the 5 PM NHC advisory there will be any data showing movement from N to NE.

[Ken Lucas]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
Forgive my lack of experience perhaps, but i'm having a hard time seeing where and how J can get moving to the Northeast. The ULL to the east is advancing to the west HARD and that sliver of exit has all but seemed to almost close. It almost looks like another 6 hours and J will have nowhere to go but right up the east coast. Doesnt look like it could go anywhere North, let alone north east with that giant ULL pushing right into it

The ULL does appear to be advancing east very quickly.

[invest man]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
Forgive my lack of experience perhaps, but i'm having a hard time seeing where and how J can get moving to the Northeast. The ULL to the east is advancing to the west HARD and that sliver of exit has all but seemed to almost close. It almost looks like another 6 hours and J will have nowhere to go but right up the east coast. Doesnt look like it could go anywhere North, let alone north east with that giant ULL pushing right into it

My thinking as well, unless J goes under the advancing Ull then east
bound. It that what the models are showing. Anyone in the know here please advise!

[sicktght311]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
Forgive my lack of experience perhaps, but i'm having a hard time seeing where and how J can get moving to the Northeast. The ULL to the east is advancing to the west HARD and that sliver of exit has all but seemed to almost close. It almost looks like another 6 hours and J will have nowhere to go but right up the east coast. Doesnt look like it could go anywhere North, let alone north east with that giant ULL pushing right into it

And i say this coming from a place of NON -removed-, as i'm on Long Island and the last thing we need is another hurricane

[invest man]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
Forgive my lack of experience perhaps, but i'm having a hard time seeing where and how J can get moving to the Northeast. The ULL to the east is advancing to the west HARD and that sliver of exit has all but seemed to almost close. It almost looks like another 6 hours and J will have nowhere to go but right up the east coast. Doesnt look like it could go anywhere North, let alone north east with that giant ULL pushing right into it

And i say this coming from a place of NON -removed-, as i'm on Long Island and the last thing we need is another hurricane

Yeah I hear you. Here in eastern NC where I'm at has had about 10" of rain in the last week. IM

[Lifeless]

The ECM run currently coming through suggests no real change in path from the last run.

[invest man]

The ECM run currently coming through suggests no real change in path from the last run.

Does the Latest Euro show the ULL to J's NE? IM

[stormlover2013]

EURO holds fort.....

[emeraldislenc]

I just hope the models are right! It would be a disaster if they were wrong!

[terstorm1012]

this is going to be like threading a needle I think.

I also think Joaquin will be on the inside part of the cone, but it's going to be a threat to Bermuda and maybe Atlantic Canada.

problems are bad enough on the East Coast, at least a landfalling hurricane likely won't be one of them.

[EquusStorm]

Amazing how much difference in track there would be should any of the features steering Joaquin have been a little earlier or later, or further off. East coast people should count their blessings for this but should refrain from playing in the ocean while doing so due to the very unsettled waters this thing is gonna create. Doesn't take a landfall or even a close call to create high waves, rip currents, or coastal erosion.

Unrelated but am starting to wonder if the little track map graphic at the top still says 3 for Joaquin because it might still be set as 130mph still being a category three like the scale used to be?

[Sanibel]

It must have peaked because San Salvador is in the eyewall and maintaining around 110mph sustained Gusts 140mph.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[txwatcher91]

It must have peaked because San Salvador is in the eyewall and maintaining around 110mph sustained Gusts 140mph.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Their station has been offline for hours.

[Aric Dunn]

only way this is not out to see is if the coastal low of the se does not form...

[invest man]

only way this is not out to see is if the coastal low of the se does not form...

Thanks Aric, do you see it forming and if not when is it suppose to form? IM

[Aric Dunn]

only way this is not out to see is if the coastal low of the se does not form...

Thanks Aric, do you see it forming and if not when is it suppose to form? IM

I see no sign of it yet. but its not really supposed to take shape for another 24 hours or so.

or another possible way is if that low forms farther west allowing the weakness to also be farther west and a track more north.

other than that its pretty much not likely going to affect the us.

[Steve]

For those wondering how in the world Joaquin can get out with that advancing high pressure nose from the NE, try the following model runs. These are from NCEP directly, so other sites like Tropical Tidbits, FSU, PSU/Ewall, Crown or Wright might have it different:

850_700_thick - shows the high coming down from the NE sort of feeding into the coastal low and backing off while the high coming down from Canada which you'd assume is a block, stretches out and splits rather than becoming the old "Newfoundland Wheel." It's pretty easy to see the evolution on that even though it is not apparent when you look at Water Vapor or Preciptable Water yet

1000_850_thick - shows the same thing with surface parameters - NE High backs off; NW high splits, alley opens

There are about 18 different GFS products at NCEP, so you can find out what you want to see and at what levels there.

[terstorm1012]

that's a big reason I think it'll ride up along the western edge of the current cone (assuming there aren't westward adjustments).



(also I see your location changed aric, are congrats in order?)