Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

120 hours.



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[cycloneye]

144 hours



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[cycloneye]

192 hours. Look at that little guy in the SE Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

In the long range,it shows the death Texas ridge out. Low moves thru the Caribbean before reaching the GOM.



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[StormClouds63]

We've been hearing for several weeks that the "death ridge" is going to move out. Maybe ... we'll see. Right now, looking at WV for the entire Atlantic basin, the conditions seem very hostile for any further development during the next few days. By early to mid-September, maybe things will change. A lot of storms in 2011, but most have been weakened significantly by dry air intrusion or unfavorable upper air patterns.

[Big O]

In keeping with the JB theme, he just posted that the Day 10 European suggests the eastern trough lifting out and being replaced by a ridge, along with a trough in the mountain west. He then drew an arrow suggesting the "monster" in the Atlantic would therefore be steered back west toward the east coast, probably the eastern coast of Florida and/or the southeast.

He didn't say if the storm would then emerge into the GOM or whether it was solely as east coast threat.

I am a bit puzzled by his comment that the GOM would shut down on or around September 7. I would be shocked that aside from any possible threats to the Gulf in September, October is notorious for NW Carribean storms being steered into the GOM. In no ways is this a personal attack on him; I just question the definitiveness of his assertion.

[HurricaneWarning92]

In keeping with the JB theme, he just posted that the Day 10 European suggests the eastern trough lifting out and being replaced by a ridge, along with a trough in the mountain west. He then drew an arrow suggesting the "monster" in the Atlantic would therefore be steered back west toward the east coast, probably the eastern coast of Florida and/or the southeast.

He didn't say if the storm would then emerge into the GOM or whether it was solely as east coast threat.

I am a bit puzzled by his comment that the GOM would shut down on or around September 7. I would be shocked that aside from any possible threats to the Gulf in September, October is notorious for NW Carribean storms being steered into the GOM. In no ways is this a personal attack on him; I just question the definitiveness of his assertion.

when did he say that? i mean dont get me wrong, i believe you, but im just asking.

[bamajammer4eva]

In keeping with the JB theme, he just posted that the Day 10 European suggests the eastern trough lifting out and being replaced by a ridge, along with a trough in the mountain west. He then drew an arrow suggesting the "monster" in the Atlantic would therefore be steered back west toward the east coast, probably the eastern coast of Florida and/or the southeast.

He didn't say if the storm would then emerge into the GOM or whether it was solely as east coast threat.

I am a bit puzzled by his comment that the GOM would shut down on or around September 7. I would be shocked that aside from any possible threats to the Gulf in September, October is notorious for NW Carribean storms being steered into the GOM. In no ways is this a personal attack on him; I just question the definitiveness of his assertion.

when did he say that? i mean dont get me wrong, i believe you, but im just asking.

I'll believe it when I see it but JB says Gulf threat next weekend and another east coast next month on twitter

BigJoeBastardiJoe Bastardi

Watch the gulf for next weekend, the east coast may be threatened by Sep 10 again. It fits pattern

2 hours ago

[Big O]

In keeping with the JB theme, he just posted that the Day 10 European suggests the eastern trough lifting out and being replaced by a ridge, along with a trough in the mountain west. He then drew an arrow suggesting the "monster" in the Atlantic would therefore be steered back west toward the east coast, probably the eastern coast of Florida and/or the southeast.

He didn't say if the storm would then emerge into the GOM or whether it was solely as east coast threat.

I am a bit puzzled by his comment that the GOM would shut down on or around September 7. I would be shocked that aside from any possible threats to the Gulf in September, October is notorious for NW Carribean storms being steered into the GOM. In no ways is this a personal attack on him; I just question the definitiveness of his assertion.

when did he say that? i mean dont get me wrong, i believe you, but im just asking.

Today on WeatherBell.

[Macrocane]

FWIW the FIM showed at the 12z run a cyclone in the BOC in a similar time frame to the Euro run, and I'm not sure if it is the same cyclone or another one but shows a cyclone south of Texas in the GOM. It seems like the models are sniffing something in that area and we have to be watching for consistency.

[cycloneye]

FWIW the FIM showed at the 12z run a cyclone in the BOC in a similar time frame to the Euro run, and I'm not sure if it is the same cyclone or another one but shows a cyclone south of Texas in the GOM. It seems like the models are sniffing something in that area and we have to be watching for consistency.

Yes,while the models develop a low pressure in the Eastern Atlantic,they are also hinting of something in the BOC. It will be something to watch to see if the models continue showing it.

[Rgv20]

One thing that the GFS&ECMWF have been consistent on, is showing a lot of unsettled weather in the GOM for the early part of September. Im just excited to see the models hint at some Rain for Texas!

[ROCK]

:uarrow: One thing that the GFS&ECMWF have been consistent on, is showing a lot of unsettled weather in the GOM for the early part of September. Im just excited to see the models hint at some Rain for Texas!

I am excited as well.....expecting 105 this weekend with heat index into the 115 range.....brutal...it was 108 in DT Houston today....

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z GFS in 5 days is worth noting

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z GFS at 156 hrs is showing a monster!
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP156.gif

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z GFS 240 hrs


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[cycloneye]

This run is a nailbiter for the NE Caribbean as it moves just north of the Leewards,VI and PR.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z GFS 324 (Very long range)



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[HurricaneMaster_PR]

This run is a nailbiter for the NE Caribbean as it moves just north of the Leewards,VI and PR.

Something worth watching. The area of disturbed weather that the GFS develops is expected to come off the coast of Africa tomorrow (Saturday)...

[HurricaneWarning92]

does it recurve or could it be a threat to the east coast?... interesting.