Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

On lalaland,another one hits PR.



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[HurricaneMaster_PR]

On lalaland,another one hits PR.

http://img709.imageshack.us/img709/998/ ... wndpre.gif

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At 372 hours



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[HurricaneFan]

So I'm guessing that is not the wave behind Katia which is nearly dead now,nor the one behind that,but the one Central Africa now
It is a very long way out but wouldn't the upcoming pattern change affect this when it reaches the Central Atlantic?
How long is that pattern expected to last?

[HurricaneWarning92]

nvm. That one is the one thats gonna come offshore in about a week i believe... Still, A LONG LONG LONG WAY, to go.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z GFS Long Range



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If it verifies it appears that the ridge will be well established and we shall see a long tracker by early September.

Remember, its just long term, we now have to watch tendencies.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

At 372 hours...



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Very strong hurricane near Puerto Rico. But again is a very long term forecast and changes will likely occur. What is important to note is the strong high pressure in the North Atlantic that the model is forecasting for the month of September.

[BigA]

00Z GFS Long Range


If it verifies it appears that the ridge will be well established and we shall see a long tracker by early September.

Remember, its just long term, we now have to watch tendencies.

Aric talked about this possibility early today. Note that the fact that a storm/hurricane (fantasy at this point) is moving into the Caribbean at 324 hours means that it formed 5 days or so before that and moved nearly due westward, which puts the timing of the pattern shift probably less than 220 hours (9 days or so) from now. This could mean a couple of things

1)It isn't quite as much of a lala land prediction as if the pattern shift were predicted to occur at the end of the run.
2)The pattern shifting around September 7 gives about 10 days, two weeks at the most, for storms to form in the eastern Atlantic and move west before the fall pattern begins to kick in.

Or I may be way overanalynzing a single model run. Let's see what the ECMWF and future GFS runs show in terms of a pattern shift in the stoutness of the Bermuda High.

[Meso]

06z GFS continuing to pump out storms!

[cycloneye]

Plenty of more tropical activity by mid September.



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[BigB0882]

The 372 GFS has the storm much further north and looking like a recurve, yesterday it was battering the islands and looking like a Carribean monster.

[bexar]

somehow, most of the models this year can't be trusted with tropical cyclogenesis

[HurricaneFan]

It looks like the wave to the SE of Katia is flaring up quite a bit after being nearly dead a couple days ago.
What are the models saying in regards to track and intensity with this one?

[Patrick99]

It looks like the wave to the SE of Katia is flaring up quite a bit after being nearly dead a couple days ago.
What are the models saying in regards to track and intensity with this one?

I was looking at this before it even came off Africa....I guess the models don't like it very much, but look at it - it's got spin, and it seems to be staying very far south for now. Might this be one of those storms that stays weak for a while due to some dry air, then flares up once it gains a little latitude and gets near the islands?

[dwsqos2]

The 0Z Euro and 0Z gfs make me want to take a nap.

[HurricaneFan]

The 0Z Euro and 0Z gfs make me want to take a nap.

Well the two main models are probably being inconsistent.At one time the GFS was showing the wave that is behind the wave just off the coast of Africa now hitting the Leeward Islands on the 14th of September and then the next run showed an ocean storm.But I'm hearing of a major pattern that will establish a strong ridge across the Atlantic soon.So they might get a better grip of the situation in the next few days.

[somethingfunny]

Sometimes the GFS long-range will pick up on a big storm two weeks out, and then drop the signature until mid-range (usually just after the Euro picks it up ) when it suddenly reappears at the same position, timeframe, and strength as it had shown before. We'll see if that turns out to be the case here....I have a really hard time believing the tropics will be calm and quiet as we reach the second week of September. These globals also showed a lull in activity following Hurricane Irene.

[Macrocane]

Almost exactly what I was going to say, the models go quiet for a few days in the long range and then they develop systems that they had dropped before or sometimes different systems.

[somethingfunny]

Yeah, the long-range modelstorm that's gone missing from the past few runs doesn't seem to be any particular system. One run showed it near the NE Caribbean on September 14/15th, another run shows it near Georgia by the 16th, those would be separate impulses of energy. But in general the GFS seems to be detecting favorable conditions and a strong impulse from the ITCZ that could develop east of the islands about a week after Labor Day. It's not showing up now, but if it suddenly picked up the signature again and consolidated its' agreement on a particular wave just 2-4 days before development, it wouldn't be the first time that happened.

edit: actually looking at today's 12z GFS at 384hours, September 18th (I know, la-la land), it's still picking up our northern Caribbean cruiser as a weak storm just consolidating near Hispaniola. Seems to be the same impulse. There's also a general lowering of pressures in the SW Caribbean....

I think there will be something festering down there by then. I just can't see the Atlantic being quiet on and after September 11th when Katia exits the picture.

[RachelAnna]

I know a lot of people are saying it probably won't happen because fall weather patterns will soon set in, but I REALLY hope that we can get some tropical moisture in the Gulf that will benefit Texas--and I hope the models start showing it and it starts verifying. Doesn't even have to be an organized feature...just moisture. PLEASE.

[cycloneye]

On the long range,plenty of more action is instored,but my attention went more to that big Bermuda high anchored after mid September.



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