Global model runs discussion

[BigA]

On the long range,plenty of more action is instored,but my attention went more to that big Bermuda high anchored after mid September.

No reason that that couldn't happen. Mid September CV storms tracking west are rare, but not unheared of. Gloria (1985), Inez (1966), and the 1893 Charleston hurricane (formed on September 25 and tracked all the way across the Atlantic)! come to mind, and I'm sure you remember Georges. The shift in favor of a robust Bermuda high seems to be a common theme in the long range models.

Not sure how the developing La Nina would influence a robust bermuda high later in the season, but it could be a factor.

[Vortex]

I'm beginning to notice in the long range the globals namely the GFS is starting to lower pressure across the western carribean..As we transition into Fall this will become the focal point for activity...I still expect CV activity just after mid-september it becomes less likely that storms will travers the entire pond as troughiness becomes more progressive and amplified.

[cycloneye]

From Dr Jeff Masters:

Lee is the 12th named storm this year, and came eight days before the half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season. Climatologically, September 10 marks the half-way point. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 24 - 26 named storms, making it the 2nd busiest season on record, behind 2005. Lee's formation date of September 2 puts 2011 in 5th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 12th storm. Only 2005, 1995, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 12th storm.

[cycloneye]

For the first time,ECMWF has an area in the Caribbean that looks to develop. We will have to see if it continues to show it in further runs.

[BigA]

[quote="cycloneye"]For the first time,ECMWF has an area in the Caribbean that looks to develop. We will have to see if it continues to show it in further runs.
quote]

Looks like the origin of that is from a Cape-Verde wave, not a homebrew. Could be a Caribbean cruiser if the Bermuda High sets up strong, but given that it's ten days out, this is mere conjecture.

[cycloneye]

GFS in the extreme long range is loaded with cyclones everywhere.



Saved image.

[Macrocane]

Interesting that the GFS has a strong trough in the East coast of US and a strong high behind it, it shows a pattern more typical of mid October, that may take the Caribbean cyclone to Florida, however it's still to early for that kind of pattern so I don't believe it yet.

[BigA]

:uarrow: Interesting that the GFS has a strong trough in the East coast of US and a strong high behind it, it shows a pattern more typical of mid October, that may take the Caribbean cyclone to Florida, however it's still to early for that kind of pattern so I don't believe it yet.

Probably part of the GFS's tendency to overdo troughiness, especially in the long run. But the Bermuda High looks well-established still, despite the relatively late date.

[bigdan35]

Nogaps trys to develope another storm in gulf
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical





http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

[WeatherEmperor]

Nogaps trys to develope another storm in gulf
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical





http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

The Nogaps is not alone with this. Tonight's 00Z GFS run also shows another storm in the GOM.



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[cycloneye]

And is in less than 10 days.



Saved image.

[WeatherEmperor]

Yes Luis that is correct. This needs to be watched closely. We will see if other models (Euro, CMC, etc.) will develop this in the future. Where is Michael? I am sure he would be very interested in this run.....

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z GFS Long Range



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[cycloneye]

And at the end of this 00z run,that system in the Caribbean ends up in the GOM.



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[maxintensity]

Its been 3 years since a major hurricane was in the caribbean sea. Guess you could say we're overdue. It would be strange if we could make it 4 years without a single major hurricane in the caribbean. I wouldn't say unprecedented because I havent done the research but it would feel weird.

[Macrocane]

And again the FIM was one of the first models to develop something in that area and also the cape verde system, this is yesterday 12z run at 204 hours:

[Rgv20]

I'm gonna be paying close attention to the BOC and Southwestern GOM as the 12zECMWF Ensembles and the New 9-04-2011 0zECMWF suggest lowering pressures down there starting around Friday.

12zECMWF Ensembles forecast valid for Saturday Morning.


0zECMWF forecast valid for Friday Evening.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z Euro is showing something similar to the 00Z GFS near the same location (just east of the Caribbean) in 192 hrs...

00Z Euro at 192 hrs


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00Z GFS at 192 hrs


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[perk]

And not one of those models show any hope for Texas.I'm done with watching these models.

[jabman98]

What's up with something shown to develop down in the Bay of Campeche?