Global model runs discussion

[3090]

Thanks something funny. Looks like we have some model support for possible development down there later this week. Something definitely to watch for. Makes me think back to Opal from years ago. I know she didn't form on the tail end of a stalled out front but exploded overnight in the gulf. Scared the you know what out of folks around here.

Do I remember Opal. Unreal. But she was in late September, early October, if memory serves me right. In any event, she had rapid intensification and got shunted off toward Pensacola. Could we have something stewing about to kick up in the BOC over the next 4-5 days?

It's getting busy in the Tropics.

Looking at the latest satellite imagery, some ingredients are getting thrown in already it appears.

[HurricaneFan]

95L was struggling before and now it has flared up alot and have some(not a whole lot according to some models) potential to develop.
Will the wave coming off of Africa now that is also struggling,flare up in the near future?What are the models saying in terms of track and intensity with this wave?

[lostsole]

As Lee is wrapping up around here(no pun intended) I am already starting to look at our next possible threat. Saw the GFS runs last night and this morning that was showing a system in the central gulf onthe 11th originating deep in the BOC. Probably develops from the tailend of the cold front that is supposed to move through here tomorrow and tuesday. Saw one euro run last night that also showed this possibilty. Have been away from computer today, has anything changed or do we still have model support for this scenario?

12Z model rundown on Katia and next week's BOC storm:

GFS: recurve, BOC storm forms, NW Caribbean storm pushed back to 9/20
UKMET: gonna hit Jax-SC area, no BOC storm
CMC: recurve, BOC storm forms
NOGAPS: recurve, BOC storm forms
...and of course the Euro.....
recurve (LOL 929mb off cape cod), no BOC storm, but that NW caribbean storm is developing at 9/14

Thanks for the rundown, that was really nice of you, made it very easy to get caught up very quickly. Well done.

[cycloneye]

GFS continues to develop in the NW Caribbean on long range. After this timeframe,it goes to the Florida Penninsula.



Saved image.

[HurricaneFan]

So what are the models saying about the wave behind 95L(just off the coast of Africa now)in terms of track and intensity?

[TYNI]

Curious to see what the models show us in the next runs. There's stuff popping everywhere in the tropical Atlantic at the moment!



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[HurricaneFan]

The wave to the SE of Maria looks to be holding its own still.
Are the models saying anything about it yet?

[bigdan35]

This is 2 runs in a row gfs shows similar results but time frame is in la la land




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http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

[cycloneye]

Make it three in a row going there What I am posting here is the starting phase of the development by GFS at 18z run at 276 hours.



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[bigdan35]

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And the finish of that run




http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

[HurricaneWarning92]

Interesting, so it comes from the south...

[somethingfunny]

0z dropped it.

[BigA]

06 picked it back up. Two storms now at the end of the run: one in W Carib and one in Bahamas. This tells me that the GFS is seeing action start focusing farther west in late September, which makes climatological sense as the MDR becomes less favorable for development.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The 00Z GFS yet develops another system in 168 hrs and moves it through the Lesser Antilles and very close to PR. Mercy!



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[Macrocane]

The 0z FIM starts developing a tropical wave in 168-174 hours before it reaches the Lesser Antilles at a very low latitude (roughly at 12N), later at 210 hours it develops another system near the western tip of Cuba, by the end of the run (240 h) the systems are strengthening and one is located well southeast of Puerto Rico and the other north of Yucatan peninsula (see the image below).

[gatorcane]

wake me up when the Euro and GFS show something of interest. Right now it is quite boring

Looking forward to the first cold front here in South Florida, though we are still at least 6 weeks away or so.

[Rgv20]

Looks like the 12zECMWF Ensembles are trying to sniff out something in the NW Caribbean in 10 days. The GFS has been hinting at it too.

12zECMWF Ensembles 10 day forecast. Do not look at specifics but instead notice that it starts to lower pressures in the NW Caribbean.

[bexar]

It's really getting boring.... there have been 14 named storms already yet only two has reached hurricane status

this season so far has been quantity over quality... and with peak now in reach, nothing interesting out there really in most long range models.

[psyclone]

I've been saying quantity over quality for awhile now...no question it's true. but we are quickly approaching the time of the year to look to the western caribbean. that area can produce some serious late season quality. for my region (west coast of florida) we're just now reaching the higher risk time of year as most of our threats come late and from the south rather that early and from the east.

[gatorcane]

I've been saying quantity over quality for awhile now...no question it's true. but we are quickly approaching the time of the year to look to the western caribbean. that area can produce some serious late season quality. for my region (west coast of florida) we're just now reaching the higher risk time of year as most of our threats come late and from the south rather that early and from the east.

Agreed September and October are THE months for Florida hits if you look back in history.