Global model runs discussion

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

18Z GFS still develops an area of low pressure in the Central Atlantic within the next 5 days...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

:uarrow: Actually that doesn't seem to be a low, I see there a TD just east of 60W and a TS near 40W. Wxman57 mentioned that the GFS has been inconsistent and that's true but the 12z runs of all global models are again on board with development in that area so this time it has model support, let's see if the don't flip back to non-development in the next runs.

The CMC, ECMWF,GFS,NOGAPS are all hinting development in that are within the next 5 days... So, lets keep watching their upcoming runs to see if the trend continues.

[Macrocane]

The CMC, ECMWF,GFS,NOGAPS are all hinting development in that are within the next 5 days... So, lets keep watching their upcoming runs to see if the trend continues.

Yep, and add the UKMET and FIM to the list.

[Adoquín]

gfs 18z slices through the DR in response to the steering as one big strong thing stronger than earlier. Very wet for PR too. But too far aout a few days ago the now non existent gfs wc low was creating noise.

[LaBreeze]

18Z GFS still develops an area of low pressure in the Central Atlantic within the next 5 days...

... and then it goes fishing? Just my thoughts on this.

[SFLcane]

18Z GFS still develops an area of low pressure in the Central Atlantic within the next 5 days...

... and then it goes fishing? Just my thoughts on this.

no reason to think otherwise in terms of the U.S with the pattern that has been in place. Could affect the caribbean though.

[HurricaneWarning92]

I give up... ill come back next season.

[WeatherEmperor]

I give up... ill come back next season.

I am just curious. What exactly is it that you are giving up on?

[cycloneye]

00z GFS and ECMWF backed off from the CV development both had yesterday at 12z so the flip-floping of the models continues. Also,the Western Caribbean area has nothing on the models and the days keep pushing ahead.

[Adoquín]

00z GFS and ECMWF backed off from the CV development both had yesterday at 12z so the flip-floping of the models continues. Also,the Western Caribbean area has nothing on the models and the days keep pushing ahead.

flip flop flip flop. LOL. Something must be driving the models crazy this year or Do they generally show this behavior? Maybe it is because it is an exceptional year whose conditions are hard to forecast? From major catastrophe to beach day in different runs in different places that is a lot of change....

[Dean4Storms]

I just have a hunch that real bad one is going to pop up somewhere, may be a Western Carib. developer where a Tropical Wave passes under the radar so to speak thru much of the Atlantic and Carib. Sea and then Pop!

[cycloneye]

Looking at the models not being in a consensus for something to develop anytime soon in the Atlantic basin, I am inclined to say that the lull will be more prolonged than first thought and may last until the end of this month or even the first days of October.

[weatherwindow]

Looking at the models not being in a consensus for something to develop anytime soon in the Atlantic basin, I am inclined to say that the lull will be more prolonged than first thought and may last until the end of this month or even the first days of October.

agreed, luis.....i think we are going to wait for that canadian maritime/ne us high to build in...prior to seeing anything in the nw caribbean...imo, CV is toast, as far as westward tracks past 50degW are concerned

[Macrocane]

I don't think there will be such a long lull, something has to give in in the next few days, I mean it's september it can't be so inactive.

[fci]

I give up... ill come back next season.

I am just curious. What exactly is it that you are giving up on?

Read back on posts by this member and a few other specific members (no need to give names); who are "bored" with the season because the troughs that cause the recurves have taken away their fun and there has not been a credible threat to the CONUS since Irene.
My opinions on this thought process have been expressed several times while I have mostly been able to maintain my anger and have not lashed out for fear of being suspended from S2K.
Suffice it to say that I am not the least bit disappointed or bored and hope that the trend continues of storms developing and recurving somewhat harmlessly out to sea.
If we could skip the Texas drought and Irene's pounding of Puerto Rico and the surrounding Islands and subsequent flooding in the Eastern US; I would say that it has been a good season. Now, if we can just get through the next several weeks without a Carib storm striking from the south/west; it will be complete and I will have LOVED the boredom that the un-named members hated.

[Macrocane]

OK I'm getting tired of this situation, one cannot talk about a specific topic without having this discussion all over again, if you don't like those comments just ignore them, there should be a rule or a special topic about this kind of discussion. I have said this several times, on this board there are two type of members: the weather enthuasiasts and the people that could be affected. I agree that enthusiasts should be more careful with their comments but the other people shouldn't be asking every time "What do you mean?" "So you want destruction?" etc. I'm deeply sorry for being off topic, I hate to do this things.

[HurricaneWarning92]

First of all, i was kidding (im still here)... jeez, man. Secondly, how is my post a "bad" post? Some of us like severe weather, give us/them a break. I never said i liked destruction. Thirdly, im 19 years old. I remember, fci, you said when you were young, you wanted storms to come your way. Well, i want to live well, experience new things that cause excitement (for me). Fci, you post things as if you expect or want everyone to think or feel the same way as you. THAT, is getting annoying because everyone has different opinions about certain things. Not everyone is the same. It bothers me because you are making us (the ones that dont think like you) seem like the bad or crazy guys when we are not.

[cycloneye]

Ok,let's return to the topic on hand,and that is about the model runs from the global models,thank you for your cooperation. Next posts that are off-topic will be deleited.

[SoupBone]

I don't think there will be such a long lull, something has to give in in the next few days, I mean it's september it can't be so inactive.

I don't understand this comment. Can you explain in more detail why you believe this? If models show that nothing develops for a few weeks, well we know that they've had their issues this season. However, while historically September has been active, it doesn't mean we won't have one that fizzles out. Isn't this why we love weather? The unpredicable nature of it is one of the few mysteries left to enjoy.

[Macrocane]

Yep my comment was based on climatology, in other years there have been long periods of inactivity on Septmeber but they don't last through October unless it's an El Niño year, for example look at 2008 there was a big lull aftr Josephine but at the end of september Kyle and Laura formed, so I think that the atcivity should peak up again by the end of the month. Besides the models have been sniffing something out there, and the CMC, UKMET and FIM have been consistent developing a Cape Verde cyclone, I know they are not the most reliable models but they could be right this time.