Global model runs discussion

[BigA]

12Z long range GFS again developing a classical October western Caribbean hurricane at the beginning of October. Not too much to worry about, given the large number of false alarms, but with the CFS and GFS MJO forecasts predicting enhancive conditions in the Caribbean in early October, and the fact that we are in a La Nina, I would say that something coming out of the Caribbean during the first two weeks of October is a good possibility.

[cruiser65]

Can you post a link to those model runs please????

[BigA]

Can you post a link to those model runs please????

12Z GFS

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

MJO forecasts

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /mjo.shtml

PM me if you would like me to interpret something.

Also, ECMWF shows a tropical storm trying to form in the Western Caribbean in about 9 days, but it looks like at the end it gets swept off to the northeast before it can organize.

[SouthFLTropics]

what is becoming a permanent east coast trough just wont go away

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

Which has the potential to be bad news as we head into October. Climo suggests development transitions into the Western Caribbean and with a permanent east coast trough that you continue to bring up will be bad news for Florida potentially.

Agreed Michael...What once was our friendly trough will quickly become a dastardly foe and bring anything in the Western Caribbean right up and over us.

SFT

[BigA]

12Z Euro ensembles at 10 days



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[blp]

18z shows it again. We all know the drill.... What does catch my eye is the Euro has the same idea just weaker and a little faster than the GFS so if it continues we may need to keep a closer eye on it.

[bexar]

anything interesting in models now?

by the looks of it, Maria might be this season's last hurricane

[bigdan35]

Euro keeps lower pressure in NW Caribbean



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[gatorcane]

Wake me up when it gets interesting again....

[StarmanHDB]

anything interesting in models now?

by the looks of it, Maria might be this season's last hurricane

While climatology supports the fact that the Cape Verde season is quickly winding down, climatology also supports the fact that the western Caribbean season is about to awaken and with that once-friendly east coast trough potentially bringing anything the Caribbean sprouts north and east (toward southern Florida in particular), I seriously doubt that Maria will be the season's last hurricane. I hope you're correct, but unfortunately climatology disagrees with your statement.

[psyclone]

Wake me up when it gets interesting again....

isn't that the truth. remember around 10 days ago the models were projecting development is the western caribbean? ummmm...where is it? interesting development is always a week to 10 days out in fantasy land but when the time comes...crickets. I do think the western caribbean will come to life but it doesn't appear imminent.

[Rainband]

Wake me up when it gets interesting again....

isn't that the truth. remember around 10 days ago the models were projecting development is the western caribbean? ummmm...where is it? interesting development is always a week to 10 days out in fantasy land but when the time comes...crickets. I do think the western caribbean will come to life but it doesn't appear imminent.

be careful what you wish for this is the time of year we have to watch in the bay area and that trof is making me a bit nervous...... I am on vacation in 10 days so it better stay quiet.

[PTrackerLA]

Well judging by the lack of anything shown on long range models, the date of September 22 and climatology, I feel the northern gulf coast (west of new orleans) will be safe the rest of this season from a major storm. It's been quite a strange season with many developments but also fairly unfavorable conditions which led to a lack of hurricanes. I'm very much so looking forward to this Fall and hopefully we can get into a rainy and cool pattern across the south after this miserable summer of 2011!

[BigB0882]

PTrackerLA, I have always wondered, what is that image from in your avatar? Was it Gustav? I can't make out the name, it is too small.

[wxman57]

PTrackerLA, I have always wondered, what is that image from in your avatar? Was it Gustav? I can't make out the name, it is too small.

Try this version:

[PTrackerLA]

I was going to guess Isidore ! I think I just picked it out from the avatar gallery years ago and never changed it. Surely there's been much more relevant storms since then for my area though...guess it's time to change!

[BigB0882]

LOL! Thanks. I don't even remember that storm so must have not made much of an impact in our area.

[bigdan35]

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[gatorcane]

Still sleeping. Zip out there....cold fronts should be arriving in 4 weeks here in South Florida

See you in 2012? Well not quite but bones is lurking.....

[fci]

Well I for one do not feel comfortable trying to bring the curtain down on the season.
The Western Carib is not finished for the year and I am fearful that anything that brews in that oven down there is destined to come up this way.
No..........tell me that Bones is here 6 weeks from now and I will be willing to accept it.