Global model runs discussion

[psyclone]

October is frequently a big month, especially in la nina years. the threat is reducing over a good part of the conus, but for the florida peninsula...way too soon to bring bones out of hibernation. wait 'til holloween.

[cycloneye]

Very long range GFS continues to show Western Caribbean development after the 6th. Let's see if the ECMWF joins later in time.

06z GFS loop

[weatherwindow]

Very long range GFS continues to show Western Caribbean development after the 6th. Let's see if the ECMWF joins later in time.

06z GFS loop

just an observation, luis.... given the amplitude and strength of the trofiness over the length of the gfs forecast period, upper-level conditions are marginal at best over the western caribbean. What i am not seeing is any coherent high pressure over the caribbean. development in the caribbean is normally slow and will require relatively persistent high pressure to allow for this process. Perhaps, i am misreading the situation, however high pressure has been notable by its absence over the east coast/watl/westerm caribbean over the past month. normally, one would expect october and november to be active given the la nina environment. while, this cylcle of gfs develops a TS at 384hrs, i doubt the suggestion that october and novermber will be exceptionally active due to an anomalously hostile upper level conditions........rich

[somethingfunny]

The GFS (and to a degree, the Euro) has been showing this Northwestern Caribbean storm at 300+ hours out for at least 300 hours now lol. While that really diminishes my confidence that the GFS timeline is correct now, it really increases my confidence that SOMETHING will form EVENTUALLY. And likely, something big.

[psyclone]

perhaps the gfs is sniffing out development in october 2012. can someone post a run of the 9060 hour gfs?

[cycloneye]

GFS keeps going with the Western Caribbean scenario,but ECMWF still has a broad low pressure without any development. Let's see if the Euro joins GFS in comming runs and then we may see something.

Saturday September 24 12z GFS loop

[blp]

GFS is hinting at lowering pressures increasing late into the first week of October. Nothing in particular yet but it is suggesting that conditions are going to get more favorable. If you believe the GFS MJO forecast this would explain why the GFS is more favorable with the MJO returning to the Atlantic.I would be shocked if we don't get something forming in W. Carribean in October, despite the negative factors this is not an El Nino year.

Imaged Saved

[hurricanetrack]

Would someone care to explain exactly what that graphic shows? I understand some of it, but not enough of it. Thanks!

[blp]

Basically the above graphic shows the evolution of the previous 40 days of forecast and the 15 day operational GFS forecast for the future. The Blue line is the operational GFS and grean is the Ensemble Mean GFS. The graphic is broken up into quadrants that represents the various basins. Of concern to us would be quadrant 8. I am not 100% knowledgeable on the whole graphic so below are some links:

Methadology and White paper:
http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/abstracts/WH04.html

Main Site for the MJO products:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
Main Site for all the other models:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml#for

BTW: The UKMET also shows the MJO moving into our basin. The Euro is still not showing this happening yet.

[cycloneye]

The thread has turned dead as nothing imminent looks like it may develop anytime soon in the Western Caribbean nor any place else in the Atlantic,if you look at the latest runs by GFS and ECMWF. The Western Caribbean scenario keeps pushing back in time and it may be by mid October,when something may develop,but that is not guaranteed. We continue to watch the runs,and if you see the thread active again, it means something is going on in the models.

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z GFS @ 384hr...aka Fantasy Land...



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[StarmanHDB]

00Z GFS @ 384hr...aka Fantasy Land

I've been seeing a lot of theses so-called "fantasy land" long-range GFS runs over past couple of weeks which leads me to ask just how long these runs will be "fantasy". We know what climatology says about where TC's generate this time of the year and that GFS run is dated 10/13. I'm just saying....

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z GFS @ 384hr...aka Fantasy Land

I've been seeing a lot of theses so-called "fantasy land" long-range GFS runs over past couple of weeks which leads me to ask just how long these runs will be "fantasy". We know what climatology says about where TC's generate this time of the year and that GFS run is dated 10/13. I'm just saying....

I couldn't agree more. We are getting closer that time of year where we really have to start watching the WC. Only time will tell if the GFS is correct.

[KUEFC]

But the fact that it keeps getting pushed back to the 384+ hour mark surely isnt a good sign for any development?

[RL3AO]

The graphic is broken up into quadrants that represents the various basins. Of concern to us would be quadrant 8. I am not 100% knowledgeable on the whole graphic so below are some links:

Quadrants 1 and 2 are statistically the most positive for the Atlantic.

[Vortex]

IMO, about 2 weeks till showtime over the western Carribean.

[psyclone]

It's always two weeks 'til showtime.

[cycloneye]

When Euro gets into the fray (If it ever does so) with GFS,then I will be sold on Western Caribbean development.

[blp]

The graphic is broken up into quadrants that represents the various basins. Of concern to us would be quadrant 8. I am not 100% knowledgeable on the whole graphic so below are some links:

Quadrants 1 and 2 are statistically the most positive for the Atlantic.

Thanks for pointing that out. I thought 8 was the Carribean area and 1 was closer to Africa. So I thought 8 was the area of most concern late in the year.

[WeatherEmperor]

FWIW, the 12Z GFS @384 hrs. Actually starts development near Panama around 208-224hrs. Don't shoot the messenger lol:



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