Global model runs discussion

[CourierPR]

Bastardi says that Caribbean should supply an interesting end game to hurricane season next couple of weeks.

[cycloneye]

I suspect that if the Euro is going to join GFS, it will start to show development in the Western Caribbean after the 11th of October. We will see if that will occur or it never develops.

[blp]

I suspect that if the Euro is going to join GFS, it will start to show development in the Western Caribbean after the 11th of October. We will see if that will occur or it never develops.

The Euro is going out till 10/9 right now. I think the Euro is slightly behind the GFS because the MJO is forecast to arrive later. It has it arriving around the 13th or 14th, so I would suspect that if the Euro is going to show something it will start happening Monday or Tuesday when the model's long range is in that timeframe.

[AJC3]

Bastardi says that Caribbean should supply an interesting end game to hurricane season next couple of weeks.

So does climatology.

[ROCK]

GFS has been pushing dates back for weeks now down in the carib. I have to agree with that Skeletor guy, if we dont see something pop soon I think the show is over for this year as far as a US CONUS landfall.... Westerlies already kicking in over the GOM and FL. Nice cool fronts dropping pretty far south now.

[CourierPR]

GFS has been pushing dates back for weeks now down in the carib. I have to agree with that Skeletor guy, if we dont see something pop soon I think the show is over for this year as far as a US CONUS landfall.... Westerlies already kicking in over the GOM and FL. Nice cool fronts dropping pretty far south now.

Rock, we are still looking for one of those nice cool fronts here in south FL. It's not over yet.

[StarmanHDB]

Bastardi says that Caribbean should supply an interesting end game to hurricane season next couple of weeks.

So does climatology.

HA! Where would Joe Bastardi be without climatology?

[Ntxw]

GFS has been pushing dates back for weeks now down in the carib. I have to agree with that Skeletor guy, if we dont see something pop soon I think the show is over for this year as far as a US CONUS landfall.... Westerlies already kicking in over the GOM and FL. Nice cool fronts dropping pretty far south now.

Rock, we are still looking for one of those nice cool fronts here in south FL. It's not over yet.

It's coming this weekend for the top half of Florida. Upper 70s for high's and 50s lows around Orlando. It's getting closer!

[Dean4Storms]

Actually the fronts getting down into the southern GOM or Western Carib. can be triggers for tropical development as the trough lifts out.

[hurricanetrack]

That Skeletor guy! I love it.

Yes, I think we will either see the operationals jump on development by mid-week next week or it's not going to happen at all. I am inclined to believe that we will see development and probably something significant for someone. Remember, a hurricane in the Caribbean almost has no "choice" but to hit someone- if not the U.S.

We have a lot going for this potential pulse with climatology and the MJO pulse coming coupled with the La Nina in place. Seems logical to at least expect development, just not sure as to how much or where it ends up. No one knows that....

[bexar]

GFS is also forecasting potential Irwin to form within the next 10 days, similar track with Hilary.

[cycloneye]

The Euro now jumps into the more favorable MJO status for the Atlantic,although the signal is weak. Does this means it will also jump on development in the climo favored Caribbean sometime in October?

[cycloneye]

FYI,the 12z Euro has this in ten days. I dont think is what GFS has been showing,but is another disturbance that forms in the Caribbean.

[Steve H.]

Looks like it develops from lower pressure in the caribbean under the big ridge to the north. Shows the low south of Cuba (intensifying) at day 10.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP240.gif

edit: fixed your link (changed it from 00Z to 12Z) - AJC3

[blp]

Bingo, first run from the Euro showing development. It was earlier than what I expected but it is not surprising to me considering the trends. Let's see if it continues...

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Bingo, first run from the Euro showing development. It was earlier than what I expected but it is not surprising to me considering the trends. Let's see if it continues...

Yes,I was kind of surprised when I saw it and as I said in my post above,I touught it was different from GFS in the timeframe.

[KUEFC]

Lets not get carried away guys its just one model run

[blp]

Lets not get carried away guys its just one model run

Nobody is getting carried away. We are commenting on the trend and this is the first time the Euro goes with the trend for development.

[LarryWx]

FWIW....not much at all.....the 18Z Fri gfs hits New England on 10/12 with Philippe. This the 1st run showing a CONUS hit. OMG, JB is going to go crazy lol.

[KUEFC]

How good are the CMC and nogaps models for picking up development? both hinting at something in 144 hours.