Global model runs discussion

blp · #3181 Postby **blp** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 1:16 pm

I was a little suspect about the GFS dropping development completely so this is not a surprise to me that it is back. I find it hard to believe with an MJO signal as strong as predicted that we don't see something developing. Let's see what the Euro says.

#3182 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 2:03 pm

12z ECMWF at 192 hours. I wont say anything more.

YouTube · #3183 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 2:14 pm

Goooooooooooood! Though if you watch the run out to 240, it is hard to believe we'll see a NNW moving TC in October?!??!?! We shall see. This makes things interesting for sure as we got through the next few days and the models perhaps come in to some agreement.

YouTube · #3184 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 2:18 pm

I would tend to think that the Euro is developing that tropical wave seen in the bottom right hand corner of this image:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/fxc/201110072358_a.png

ROCK · #3185 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:43 pm

0Z GFS is rolling.....NNW moving TC in October is not out of the question...Lily comes to mind but we are approaching mid Oct....

#3186 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 09, 2011 12:13 pm

Sundays 12z GFS is again with a monster Caribbean hurricane that starts to develop slowly after 168 hours. Lets see what the Euro has at 12z.

Sundays 12z GFS Loop

YouTube · #3187 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sun Oct 09, 2011 1:44 pm

Seems that the GFS wants to take it out to the ENE while the Euro idea for what ever it develops, if it's the same overall area, is for more NW motion. Interesting days ahead as this is likely it for any potential impact on the US for the rest of the season. This is my opinion of course simply based on the current pattern and the prospects of anything happening after the 25th or so.

#3188 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 09, 2011 1:59 pm

Wepa!! 12z Euro coincides with GFS after 168 hours on a development in Western Caribbean.

At 216 hours is at BOC.

YouTube · #3189 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sun Oct 09, 2011 2:13 pm

Duel of the models again. GFS was right about the subtropical low developing on the east side of FL. Will it be right with this next system turning ENE instead of getting buried in the Yucatan and BOC? This is what helps to make it so interesting. If it were always easy and cut and dry, would it be as fascinating to watch?

#3190 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Oct 09, 2011 2:22 pm

Every single GFS run for 3 weeks has had a low developing in the Caribbean beyond 240 hrs. It's always beyond 240 hrs.

YouTube · #3191 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sun Oct 09, 2011 2:47 pm

Indeed! I think I said before that at this rate, it will have something at the 10 day time period and the day it is supposed to verify will be Christmas! We'll see, at least the Euro is now showing something. Will give us a little hope of something to track before all is said and done.

Rainband · #3192 Postby **Rainband** » Sun Oct 09, 2011 5:16 pm

wxman57 wrote:Every single GFS run for 3 weeks has had a low developing in the Caribbean beyond 240 hrs. It's always beyond 240 hrs.

agreed those spurious lows is what makes me think its out for lunch. :roll:

#3193 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:21 am

00z ECMWF continues to show development in the Western Caribbean.

168 hours

And at 240 hours is just north of Yucatan Penninsula.

#3194 Postby **N2FSU** » Mon Oct 10, 2011 10:54 am

OOZ Euro from last night, at 168 hours. Note the low in the NW Caribbean.

#3195 Postby **N2FSU** » Mon Oct 10, 2011 10:59 am

00Z Euro Ensemble at 168H:

#3196 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 10, 2011 11:59 am

Todays 12z GFS continues to do it's thing in terms of developing a Caribbean system. Let's see what the ECMWF has to follow up on what it has shown in past runs.

12z GFS Loop

#3197 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 10, 2011 2:02 pm

The 12z Euro is very agressive with the NW Caribbean system starting in 168 hours.Look at end of run where it ends up.

#3198 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Oct 10, 2011 2:06 pm

Another view of the 12Z Euro what Luis just posted above. First thing to note is that the Euro shows development at 144hrs in the NW Caribbean which is much sooner than the GFS.

Another question is what is that system in the Central Bahamas depicted at 240hrs?? At the end of the run, it looks like that Bahamas system gets pushed SW or WSW...

240hrs:

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

ROCK · #3199 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Oct 10, 2011 2:18 pm

I am going to have to go back into my history posts and pull out where I said TX would see its first major landfall in Oct...... :lol:

ROCK · #3200 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Oct 10, 2011 2:25 pm

Here it is from early Sept...not real active the 2nd half of Sept but we did have Irene etc....

The week has been slow but lets put the GFS into perspective here. It never saw Arlene or Don in the caribbean whereas all the other models were seeing it. Here are my thoughts.

Watch the CMC for potential developement along the EC this weekend. the GFS doesnt see squat.

I think the last half of Sept is going to be big.

I think Texas will see its first October major hurricane on record. Flame away but I am going against climo here.

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