Global model runs discussion

HurricaneWarning92 · #3241 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 2:26 pm

Watch mother nature throw us a Wilma-like storm at the end of the month... That would be her way of saying "bye bye" to us...

#3242 Postby **fci** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 3:24 pm

This is one of the more nervous times for us in South Florida; these next couple of weeks or so. And then it is over......

Rainband · #3243 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 5:48 pm

fci wrote:This is one of the more nervous times for us in South Florida; these next couple of weeks or so. And then it is over......

here as well.

#3244 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 15, 2011 5:49 pm

Today's 18Z GFS develops another tropical cyclone in the extreme SW Caribbean around 168-180hrs which is long range but not fantasy land. Eventually it hits central Cuba and heads NE into the Bahamas and out to sea....

168hrs:

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336hrs:

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Let the debate begin 8-)

#3245 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 2:13 pm

This long term discussion is from the San Juan NWS that talks about future Caribbean development. Maybe one more named system to close the 2011 season?

WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SW CARIBBEAN CLOSELY OVR
THE WEEKEND AS MODELS FCST A BROAD SFC LOW TO SIT THERE FOR SVRL
DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMING HIGHLY FVRBL FOR TC
FORMATION. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THIS AREA OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...CURRENT H2
VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AND MJO PHASE STRONGLY FAVOR TC
FORMATION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND REGION CONTINUES TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TC FORMATION IN THE LATEST
GLOBAL TROPICS HAZARDS/BENEFITS OTLK FROM CPC UPDATED TODAY. ANY
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA WOULD BE STEERED THIS WAY WITH DEEP TROF
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

Rainband · #3246 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:49 pm

Yep Luis you usually get a close call at the end of the season. :eek:

If I remember correctly it's the years Florida gets spared that that Happens.

#3247 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 2:30 pm

And yet,another interesting discussion of long term by the San Juan AFD about possible TC formation in Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST TUE OCT 18 2011

NEXT WEEK THINGS LOOK TO GET MORE INTERESTING. TROF LIFTS OUT
WITH A H25 ANTICYCLONE AND BROAD LOW PRES AT THE SFC ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH SHOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TC
FORMATION. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE ATLC...ONE
CURRENTLY APPROACHING 50W AND ANOTHER LARGER ONE NEAR 30W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC AND REACH OUR AREA DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD SERVE AS SEEDLING FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES. PAST COUPLE OF GFS RUNS HAVE SHOWN TC
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WINDWARDS WITH THE 12Z RUN SUGGESTING
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF 70W. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...IT
APPEARS THAT VERY DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAINFALL EVENT. ATTM PREFER A SLOWER
SOLUTION THAN THE 12Z GFS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFES WITH DEEP
MOISTURE ARRIVING NEXT WED OCT 26 RATHER THAN MON AS SUGGESTED BY
THE 12Z GFS. WITH A DEEP TROUGH LOCKED ACROSS ERN NOAM AND A BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 70W...ANY TC DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
STEERED THIS WAY. LATEST CPC GLOBAL TROPICS HAZARD ASSESSMENT PAGE
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN UNDER HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AND ABOVE AVG RAINFALL.

HURRICANELONNY · #3248 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Wed Oct 19, 2011 12:19 pm

None of the computer models predicts tropical storm formation in the Atlantic during the coming seven days. The Western Caribbean is expected to see an increase in moisture late next week and the possible formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of bringing heavy rains.

That was from Jeff masters today. Maybe one last name or two before this weird season ends. Have a good winter. Hopefully cool down here this winter. 8-)

#3249 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 19, 2011 12:54 pm

Dont shoot the messanger

as I am only posting todays 12z run of Canadian that has a monster cane in the Western Caribbean and this thread is to post the different runs and to discuss about them.

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#3250 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Oct 19, 2011 1:04 pm

Sure, I believe it! ;-)

FireRat · #3251 Postby **FireRat** » Wed Oct 19, 2011 2:49 pm

Wow, that would be the 24th and 25th of October! Over at my thread in this same talkin' tropics, I posted a while back that I personally believe the period between 10/21 and 10/28 could be very interesting...especially the days around October 25. I believe it too. :wink:

But of course, nothing is ever set in stone, although I'll be watching the tropics next week. This front coming thru Fla today could be a trigger down in the Carib...and we haven't seen our Caribbean October storm yet. If any part of the season were still good for such a thing to happen, it would be next week. Let's see if the big Euro and GFS jump on board too.

FireRat · #3252 Postby **FireRat** » Wed Oct 19, 2011 2:51 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:None of the computer models predicts tropical storm formation in the Atlantic during the coming seven days. The Western Caribbean is expected to see an increase in moisture late next week and the possible formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of bringing heavy rains.

That was from Jeff masters today. Maybe one last name or two before this weird season ends. Have a good winter. Hopefully cool down here this winter.

I have a feeling we're gonna freeze again this winter, it will be way beyond cool perhaps! This I believe because of the troughy fall we've had....La Nina doesn't mean much for me anymore. I'll take the cold with joy, summer's been brutal.

#3253 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Oct 19, 2011 2:53 pm

I think there's a very good chance that the season is over. I'm not buying any Caribbean development next week.

HurricaneWarning92 · #3254 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Wed Oct 19, 2011 4:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:I think there's a very good chance that the season is over. I'm not buying any Caribbean development next week.

I knew you were being sarcastic... :lol:

wxman57 wrote:Sure, I believe it!

Steve H. · #3255 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Oct 19, 2011 8:56 pm

Season ain't over yet. Over a month to go. there still is plenty of time for development.

#3256 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Oct 19, 2011 10:28 pm

Interesting to see a possible development of yet another EPAC storm...

#3257 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 12:34 am

Update on tonight's 00Z models. GFS, Nogaps and CMC are showing development in the SW Caribbean.

GFS and Nogaps show TC development in the extreme SW Caribbean and eventually hits CA. The CMC also shows development in the same area but brings it more north near Western Cuba.

GFS:

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Nogaps:
[IMG=http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/5026/nogaps.gif][/IMG]

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CMC:

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#3258 Postby **xironman** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 4:54 am

Don't forget the Ukie!

The Euro shows it a bit at 96hrs, but kills it off

06z GFS gets it started by tomorrow night

And sends it into CA

The 850 vorticity maps are starting to show some action and there is a lot of convection down there this morning, may almost be time to break this one out

#3259 Postby **AdamFirst** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 7:50 am

wxman57 wrote:I think there's a very good chance that the season is over. I'm not buying any Caribbean development next week.

I went out and bought some crow today...I'm not serving it just yet but be ready for a healthy portion of it

CourierPR · #3260 Postby **CourierPR** » Thu Oct 27, 2011 11:44 am

06Z NAM at 84 HRS develops a TC in western Caribbean.

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