Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

GFS continues to develop the Western Caribbean area,this is on day 7.



On day 10 it crosses Cuba towards the Bahamas.

[weatherwindow]

Things are getting interesting....at 240 hrs...the Canadian, the Euro and the GFS....have a low pressure system in the northwestern caribbean with mslp of 999, 1010 and 1002mbs respectively(http://www.raleighwx.americanwx.com). Let's just say the possibility of a tropical system moving toward cuba and the florida straits is becoming more realistic. Certainly not anything to assign a probability to but moving into the realm of the realistic....rich

[psyclone]

Considering the extent to which most of Florida is moisture starved, i am hopeful something forms. even if it's not a named entity, a slug of tropical moisture to generate heavy rainfall would be a blessing.

[WeatherWiseGuy]

I don't know. I'm not sure temperatures in the Caribbean are there yet. Seems a bit too early this year.

[weatherwindow]

I don't know. I'm not sure temperatures in the Caribbean are there yet. Seems a bit too early this year.

As a rule, ssts in the northwestern and southwestern caribbean are above the 26.5deg C threshold year-round. Currently they are approximately 27-28deg C. That shouldnt be a constraint. Shear is the crutical factor here.

[Dean4Storms]

Lets hope that whatever develops there that it moves northward into the eastern Gulf. For one I don't believe it would become too deep a system due to the cooler waters and secondly, FL would be in the moisture and receive lots of rain!

[cycloneye]

To not post all the graphics of the models,here is a brief summary of the 00z package.

GFS=The most agressive on Western Caribbean Development as it develops into a Tropical Storm.
ECMWF=Broad low Pressure but without developing.
NOGAPS=Nothing.
CMC=Nothing.

In other words,is not a stone yet that development will take place,but at least,we will see increasing convection by next weekend,and is a matter of waiting to see if the models reach a consensus or not in the next runs. If this does not develop,what about moisture going to the SE U.S that needs it badly?

[NDG]

CMC shows development in EPAC then moves it eastward towards C.A. with the energy redeloping in the western Carib in its 8-10 day range.

[weatherwindow]

To not post all the graphics of the models,here is a brief summary of the 00z package.

GFS=The most agressive on Western Caribbean Development as it develops into a Tropical Storm.
ECMWF=Broad low Pressure but without developing.
NOGAPS=Nothing.
CMC=Nothing.

In other words,is not a stone yet that development will take place,but at least,we will see increasing convection by next weekend,and is a matter of waiting to see if the models reach a consensus or not in the next runs. If this does not develop,what about moisture going to the SE U.S that needs it badly?

Luis, think you missed something on 00Z GGEM(longrange CMC)....it has a 1005mb low, just north of the Bay Islands of Honduras at 204hrs. moves this low to the vicinity of the Caymans at 240hrs, 1003mb

[Dean4Storms]

ECMWF with a strong closed low off the Carolina Coast at 168hrs..........


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

[Hurricane Andrew]

12zGFS
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[Ivanhater]

Getting interesting....12z Gfs shows developing 6 days out



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Eventually hitting SoFlo



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[NDG]

IMO, the GFS has development in the western Caribbean while the ECMWF has it in the eastern Pacific, for days the Euro has a trough of low pressure to dig down east off of the SE US and getting it cut off, pushing any disturbance south into the eastern Pac, while the GFS's solutions have been of a less amplified & more progressive trough in the eastern US.
The ECMWF loves cutting off troughs erroneously, so for now I am going more along with the GFS.

12z ECMWF


12z GFS

[OuterBanker]

Geeze Andrew, that's a rather nasty scenario on the 12z GFS. A coast hugger then a loop back. Sure hope that one doesn't come true.

It sure has been quiet here this year, no noreasters, etc. No winter either. Is that a warm core system?

[Nimbus]

6 days out and we are getting closer to the hurricane season so.. maybe something tropical at least an invest. What are the shear forecasts saying? Wind shear often quells early season disturbances.

[Ntxw]

6 days out and we are getting closer to the hurricane season so.. maybe something tropical at least an invest. What are the shear forecasts saying? Wind shear often quells early season disturbances.

Here is the latest map for shear.



At this time the Carib and gulf is hostile and not likely to sustain anything that forms, but that doesn't mean it will remain that way. We'll have to see, a week out is a long time. The EPAC however has pockets of low shear.

[cycloneye]

The consistency of GFS is remarkable regarding the development of this area in the Western Caribbean. The 18z run doesn't budge at all and has it a strong storm near Cuba in ten days. I would like to see the EURO with this to have more consensus among the models.

[ROCK]

there is some potential out there for sure. Not sure shear is going to let up in the next week. I would like to see the EURO a little more bullish before I jump on the bandwagon.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[SFLcane]

Crazy model! Still think This is more then likely convective feedback.

[boca]

Were all chasing a phantom storm.Which is interesting but i don't believe it.