Global model runs discussion

[ROCK]

maybe a phantom GFS storm but it is always good to get a bit of practice in for the real deal in about 8 weeks.... lets see what the 0Z GFS has to say in a few hours....might do an about face.

[boca]

The reason why I don't believe the GFS is that this time of year the pressure is lower in the Caribbean due to the changing of seasons and I think the model is just sniffing lower pressure and spinning storms up.I like to see the GFS from a year ago to see how many times Florida was under the gun.

[cycloneye]

Let's see if the upgrade on May 22nd changes what the model is doing now and it becomes a much better model that can compete with the ECMWF.

[NDG]

Let's see if the upgrade on May 22nd changes what the model is doing now and it becomes a much better model that can compete with the ECMWF.

Lets see how the ECMWF performs this hurricane season, I was not too impressed with it last year, compared to previous years the ECMWF went downhill.

[boca]

Let's see if the upgrade on May 22nd changes what the model is doing now and it becomes a much better model that can compete with the ECMWF.

Lets see how the ECMWF performs this hurricane season, I was not too impressed with it last year, compared to previous years the ECMWF went downhill.

Agreed The ECMWF was wrong more than right last year.

[ROCK]

Let's see if the upgrade on May 22nd changes what the model is doing now and it becomes a much better model that can compete with the ECMWF.

Lets see how the ECMWF performs this hurricane season, I was not too impressed with it last year, compared to previous years the ECMWF went downhill.

I am not sure where that info came from but I distinct remember the EURO out performing the GFS last year. Though in GFS defense it did come in 2nd.

[ROCK]

FWIW- the 18Z NOGAPS shows more of an EPAC issue....but its the NOGAPS

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

The Euro is hinting at possible ST development off the SE coast...so regardless, there does seem to be favorable conditions over the next couple of weeks in the western ATL for development...

[NDG]

Let's see if the upgrade on May 22nd changes what the model is doing now and it becomes a much better model that can compete with the ECMWF.

Lets see how the ECMWF performs this hurricane season, I was not too impressed with it last year, compared to previous years the ECMWF went downhill.

I am not sure where that info came from but I distinct remember the EURO out performing the GFS last year. Though in GFS defense it did come in 2nd.

I should had put it in better words maybe, IMO the ECMWF did not perform as well as previous years while the GFS did better than previous years.
One area that the ECMWF did horrible with was in intensity, one good example was with Tropical Storm Lee in the GOM, a couple of runs it was forecasting it to become a Cat 3 before making landfall in LA, scaring the heck out of many people that trusted that model. Another good example recently was with Invest 91L, a few days before 91L was declared it was intensifying it to get down all the way to 996mb, the lowest it got was around 1001mb.

Edit:
May I add that last year to regards on track verification the Euro and GFS were pretty much neck and neck with just a few miles apart through h72, the Euro is still king on days 4 & 5, though only 18-19 miles apart was the GFS.

Regarding track forecast verification at h120 is where the Euro has gone downhill over the last 4 years:

'08: 180 miles track error
'09: 217 miles track error
'10: 215 miles track error
'11: 224 miles track error

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pd ... n_2011.pdf

[cycloneye]

This is what the WILMINGTON NC NWS is discussing about the model scenarios of a possible off EC system.

WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE WEEKEND IS STILL QUITE UP-IN-THE-AIR...AND
THERE IS A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE...AND EVEN AMONG
RUN-TO-RUN SOLUTIONS OF INDIVIDUAL MODELS. HOWEVER...WE CAN DEVELOP
SOME IDEAS ABOUT WHAT TO EXPECT. AS THE TROUGH KICKS FURTHER
OFFSHORE...IT DEEPENS OFF THE SE COAST AND WILL LIKELY CUT OFF DUE
TO RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A
COLD CORE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP...AND THEN TRANSITION TO WARM
CORE AS EVIDENCED BY AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES IMMEDIATELY ABOVE
THE CLOSED CIRCULATION AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC
GRADIENT. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL POSITIONING...SO CANNOT HONE IN ON ANY SPECIFICS.
HOWEVER...WITH A DEEP TOUGH...AND MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SAT/SUN BUT NOTE
THAT IF CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FURTHER EAST...THE WEEKEND WILL
BE DRY

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[ROCK]

The Euro is hinting at possible ST development off the SE coast...so regardless, there does seem to be favorable conditions over the next couple of weeks in the western ATL for development...

Nice to see you back for another season...

[ROCK]

0Z GFS is ho hum in the mid range...just lowering pressures in the carib....

[boca]

0Z GFS is ho hum in the mid range...just lowering pressures in the carib....

I give it this much it is persistent.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. GFS has backed off development in the Western Caribbean It really needs the expected May 22nd upgrade,bring it on!

[NDG]

And the Euro has backed away from subtropical or extratropical development off of the Carolinas. It also needs an update, it loves deepening surface lows from cutoff ULLs.

[FireRat]

GFS and EURO...........

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF doesn't know that Aletta exists This was from May 5th 12z run. It also needs an upgrade.

[floridasun78]

all one not got upgrade need to be upgrade for june 1

[OuterBanker]

nws Wilmington now backing off too.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THERE ARE TWO GUIDANCE CAMPS FOR THE
EXTENDED. THE GFS/CMC DEVELOP ELONGATED RIDGING ACROSS THE OH VLY
WITH A BAGGY TROUGH PERSISTING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
FLORIDA...WHILE THE ECMWF STILL DEVELOPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ABOVE A HYBRID SURFACE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS...WEAKER BLOCKING UPSTREAM
COMBINED WITH THE VERY SIMILAR GFS/CMC AND OVERALL DRIER FORECAST
PROFILES SUGGEST MUCH LESS CHANCE OF HYBRID CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
STILL...SOME LOWERED HEIGHTS TROUGHING BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
SUGGEST THAT THE GFS IS NOT GIVING UP ON THIS SOLUTION
ENTIRELY...AND EVEN SO...WOULD NOT JUMP EXCLUSIVELY ON THE CMC/GFS
BANDWAGON SINCE THIS MARKS A LARGE DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
THANKS TO SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTING FROM THE NORTH...AND THE NOW
EXPECTED DRY/STABLE LAYERS ABOVE THE SURFACE.

Sure was an interesting tease couple days ago though

[northjaxpro]

TAFB 72 hour forecast