Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

third model to suggest this. couple days ago the euro developed a weak system east of the bahamas from the same frontal system affecting florida right now. The front sags south stalls then high builds back in and eventually something starts coming together. yesterday the cmc did that and now today the nogaps is doing it. similar to the process that spawned nate and Ophelia in 2005.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

That is very interesting.Now let's see what the Euro has at 12z.

[Aric Dunn]

third model to suggest this. couple days ago the euro developed a weak system east of the bahamas from the same frontal system affecting florida right now. The front sags south stalls then high builds back in and eventually something starts coming together. yesterday the cmc did that and now today the nogaps is doing it. similar to the process that spawned nate and Ophelia in 2005.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

That is very interesting.Now let's see what the Euro has at 12z.

I think it was the 12z on the 4th but the resolution on here is not good enough. you can kind of see it. i like PSU site

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

:D

Not so fast my friend. The 12z ECMWF has nothing after yesterday's runs that had Carlotta so I guess more waiting is the theme here for now.

[Aric Dunn]

:D

No so fast my friend. The 12z ECMWF has nothing after yesterday's runs had Carlotta so I guess more waiting is the theme here for now.

[img]http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/9881/msluv850z500wind2085020.gif[/ig]

well here is does show something spin up in the eastern pacific ...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[cycloneye]

:D

No so fast my friend. The 12z ECMWF has nothing after yesterday's runs had Carlotta so I guess more waiting is the theme here for now.

[img]http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/9881/msluv850z500wind2085020.gif[/ig]

well here is does show something spin up in the eastern pacific ...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Yes,at 192 hours it has it but a little more weak than yesterday.

[Aric Dunn]

better view.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Aric Dunn]

well thats new. check out the zonal shear and the 200mb winds on the euro. notice how the carrib/gulf and western atlantic become quite favorable about the time the gfs has been developing something in the carrib and moves it into the gulf. Also notice the rest of the atlantic although under high sheer is overall more favorable than at the start. less amplified troughiness. This is pretty typical this time of year as we head into summer. Slowly the atlantic is becoming more favorable for development.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[cycloneye]

Aric,the GOM may be favorable soon as GFS continues to show the long range system.

At 288 Hours.



At 336 hours.



At 360 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,the GOM may be favorable soon as GFS continues to show the long range system.

At 288 Hours.

[img]http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/5637/gfsatlantic28810mwndpre.gif[/ig]

At 336 hours.

[img]http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/3078/gfsatlantic33610mwndpre.gif[/ig]

At 360 hours.

[img]http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/998/gfsatlantic36010mwndpre.gif[/mg]

yeah the gfs has been on and off the last few days. but has since stuck with some sort of development. im inclined to think that its actually picking up on something since its been showing the development n0t only at the 300+ but as the days go by development seems to be around the 15th like many have noticed. I have been waiting to see if it was just a phantom storm or something real.

[cycloneye]

Aric,here is this afternoons discussion of the Tropics by HPC that says all about when things will turn more favorable. Game on!!


WRN NORTH AMERICAN HEMISPHERE TROPICS CONT TO BE BASICALLY
INACTIVE AT THIS TIME AS SEEN BY CHI VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES
INDICATING UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS MAY WELL CHANGE IN A WEEK
TO 10 DAYS AS INDICES SHOW AN INCREASE AS THE SOUTH AMERICAN
MONSOON ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH BETTER CONDITIONS OVER THE WRN CARRIBEAN AND
ESPECIALLY THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WHICH IS TYPICAL JUNE
CLIMATOLOGY. LONGER TERM RUNS OF GFS CONT TO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
DEEP SERLY FLOW THRU THE WRN CARRIBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A RETURN OF MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG 10N AT H850 PRODUCING A
MORE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ALSO INCREASING MORE
FAVORABLE LONGER TERM TROPICAL EAST PAC CONDITIONS.

ROSENSTEIN

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdepd

[Aric Dunn]

well there you have it. lol

[Kingarabian]

How accurate are models in the long range? Or does it all count on consistency and models supporting one another?

Sorry lol, I just read the NHC discussions and see if they talk about future LLC's.

[cycloneye]

It looks like a much stronger MJO wave will arrive to the Western Hemisphere after mid June and that could aid to turn things more favorable in the EPAC (Models already show a developing storm there) and in the Western Caribbean/GOM area,where there has been a back and forth by GFS on the long range on something developing. Let's see what occurs as this MJO impulse rolls into the area.

[Aric Dunn]

12z gfs holding to development still around the 15th. this run develops 2 systems and also possibly something in the eastern gulf/western atlantic from around 150hrs to 200 hours. hard to tell. this is the 3 run of in a row.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro showing a epac system.

[ronjon]

00Z GFS continues to be insistent on developing a western caribbean system late next weekend and moving it northward in the GOM - starting to get in the 8-9 day time frame now.

GFS

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF now joins GFS although nothing strong,it hints.

[BigA]

Experimental FIM model is also on board with a W. Carib/GOM storm in the 180-250 hour range. Perhaps more trustworthily, it shows an EPAC storm before that. Conciding with the MJO pulse predicted, such development in either or both basins appears possible.

[NDG]

The ECMWF now joins GFS although nothing strong,it hints.

http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/9881 ... 085020.gif

It shows development in the GOM from the system that it develops in the EPAC. It redevelops in the BOC after making landfall in MX then moves north across the GOM.
It had shown something similar to this also on its Wednesday night run.

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps also showing some development finally as well. although its more like the GFS than the Euro. point being is that the models are all starting to show at least the environment becoming conducive for development.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical