Global model runs discussion

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps ...trong hurricane approaching the Florida panhandle.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[floridasun78]

Y FARTHER SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT AND SHOW
CARIBBEAN MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH 40 POPS WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, IT
APPEARS CONVECTION WILL STILL FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND WITH THE
MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ATTEMPT
TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY THE WEEKEND, DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR, SOME DRIER AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE REGION, AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY.
their no talk about system in carribbean by miami weather office yet only rain coming from carribbean maybe Model are over do it

[vbhoutex]

Picked this up off of FB. Has my eyes wide open!!! It appears the models want to develop something in the time frame, but don't know where to send it. I haven't looked closely at the models so my only comment at this point is that above and the fact that a lot has to come together for this to happen. I hope it doesn't!!
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical300.gif

[thundercam96]

How Are The Steering Winds Going To Affect This System? Push It More East?

[floridasun78]

How Are The Steering Winds Going To Affect This System? Push It More East?

what i reading and seeing it be pull north into gulf but not not all models are on board yet of system in carribbean

[cycloneye]

nogaps at 120 has a hurricane passing through the Yucatan channel. while the GFS at that time has a weak TS.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif

Aric,do you have a graphic as link does not work for me?

[N2Storms]

[quote="thundercam96"]How Are The Steering Winds Going To Affect This System? Push It More East?[/quote]


Hard to tell but it appears that at the end of that NOGAPS run that Aric posted, that it was starting to move a little NWrly...maybe there is high pressure that is going to build in and send it on a more westerly direction but honestly, at this point not all of the models are even picking up on this so I'm not putting much stock in this until I see more model support.

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps at 120 has a hurricane passing through the Yucatan channel. while the GFS at that time has a weak TS.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif

Aric,do you have a graphic as link does not work for me?

this work for you ?

[SunnyThoughts]

nogaps ...trong hurricane approaching the Florida panhandle.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

This certainly isn't what I wanted to see today. We've had so much rain ( and it is STILL raining here in Pensacola) that any kind of wind at all will topple some trees. At least this is a few days away if it happens at all. Bring on the sunshineeeeee please?

[cycloneye]

nogaps at 120 has a hurricane passing through the Yucatan channel. while the GFS at that time has a weak TS.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif

Aric,do you have a graphic as link does not work for me?

this work for you ?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif

Yes and Yikes!

[floridasun78]

nogaps ...trong hurricane approaching the Florida panhandle.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

This certainly isn't what I wanted to see today. We've had so much rain ( and it is STILL raining here in Pensacola) that any kind of wind at all will topple some trees. At least this is a few days away if it happens at all. Bring on the sunshineeeeee please?

let see if models are right first their not thing carribbean yet

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro not showing much in the carrib yet (but neither did the gfs at this point). but the east pac system south of panama looks similar to GFS.


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[Riptide]

12z euro not showing much in the carrib yet (but neither did the gfs at this point). but the east pac system south of panama looks similar to GFS.


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Potent system off the east coast; could become tropical.

[Aric Dunn]

96hr Euro very similar to 12z GFS. carrib starting to show something.

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro not showing much in the carrib yet (but neither did the gfs at this point). but the east pac system south of panama looks similar to GFS.


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Potent system off the east coast; could become tropical.

yeah just saw that. the 12z CMC actually does the same thing. strange.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

Euro 120 hours. looks like it moves the east pac system inland near mexico border. still same timing as GFS.

[Aric Dunn]

144 hrs Euro system emerges into BOC restrengthens. carrib is still not doing much some some increase vorticity and lower pressures east of Nicaragua. still just about inline with the GFS.

[floridasun78]

so now is in boc

[Aric Dunn]

168 hrs. pushed back south over mexico. but carrib is starting show more.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif

[Ivanhater]

168 hrs. pushed back south over mexico. but carrib is starting show more.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif

Broad low pressure over Central America...capable of spinning up multiple lows