Global model runs discussion

[Aric Dunn]

168 hrs. pushed back south over mexico. but carrib is starting show more.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif

Broad low pressure over Central America...capable of spinning up multiple lows

yep last few runs of the euro have had the carrib system stuck over land which is why its different than the others. but it really all depends on where the convection is located.

[Aric Dunn]

all the out to 216 there is a whole lot of vorticity from the boc through the gulf and the western carrib. euro not latching onto a single system right now though. could be do to land.

just have to wait for the higher resolution loop to come out in about an hour to see if it actually resolves anything.. \

[cycloneye]

12z GGEM has low off East Coast in 72 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

well finally at 240 hours. after a lot of land interaction it develops something in the central gulf. so the euro is back on board somewhat.

[floridasun78]

all the out to 216 there is a whole lot of vorticity from the boc through the gulf and the western carrib. euro not latching onto a single system right now though. could be do to land.

just have to wait for the higher resolution loop to come out in about an hour to see if it actually resolves anything.. \

time will tell we need see if their any thing in nw carribbean by thur now dry in area

[Aric Dunn]

12z GGEM has low off East Coast in 72 hours.

[img]http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/7493/12zggem850mbtslpp06072.gif[/ig]

yeah really interesting i have been looking at the models and its actually the system that has been plaguing the gulf coast and florida that is pushed off the east coast and left behind then a ridge pushes sw....

[Rgv20]

well finally at 240 hours. after a lot of land interaction it develops something in the central gulf. so the euro is back on board somewhat.

]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP240.gif

If something does develop it looks like its going to be a slow process as it appears to be Monsoon in origin.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is better resolution loop of the euro. it does actually follow something up from the SW carrib like the gfs and other models. but keeps it over land then after the other system drifts back over mexico you can see the close isobar east of belize that moves nw and merges with the energy from the east pac system. where the convection develops will be key if something like the nogaps happens or in between like the GFS or if most of the energy is over land like the Euro. its all seems to be somewhat dependent on the system that is starting to come together in the east pac near panama.


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... ml#picture

[cycloneye]

Maybe two not only one (Chris/Debby) may develop if what some of the models have off East Coast and the Western Caribbean thing gets going.But all the factors have to be in place to have them

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe two not only one (Chris/Debby) may develop if what some of the models have off East Coast and the Western Caribbean thing gets going.But all the factors have to be in place to have them

well could be three. becasue if the east pac system develops and crosses over its renamed then if the carrib system develops and the east coast system... lol

[JtSmarts]

Maybe two not only one (Chris/Debby) may develop if what some of the models have off East Coast and the Western Caribbean thing gets going.But all the factors have to be in place to have them

Wow wasn't that what happened in Andrew92's dream.

[Aric Dunn]

and the cmc at least has the east coast system transition pretty quick to warm core.

[Aric Dunn]

Also didn't even pay attention but the nogaps also develops the east coast system.

lol

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS Ensemble mean still strongly favors something in the NW Caribbean

[Aric Dunn]

and the ukmet has weaker system near the carolina coast. in 72 hrs.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... TNA072.gif

[northjaxpro]

The GFS has performed very well so far this early season. It did really well with Beryl's development. I think the upgrade they used to improve the GFS has really benefited. It looks as if the pattern is setting up for something to possibly develop in the NW Caribbean or Southern GOM within the next week.

I also noticed the 12Z GFS keeps building High pressure along the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as well on that run. If that pattern comes to fruition, that would suggest that any system that does try to spin-up down there will be pinned down into the GOM with the High blocking any path to the north and east.

It is within the 7 day time frame with the models with this and that is when I start to pay attention to them really. We will see how it unfolds in the coming days.

[Yellow Evan]

Do any models still have anything in the EPAC? 93E failed...

[cycloneye]

Do any models still have anything in the EPAC? 93E failed...

Go to the 2012 EPAC season thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112575&hilit=&p=2228447#p2228447

[Aric Dunn]

Do any models still have anything in the EPAC? 93E failed...

Go to the EPAC thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112575&hilit=&p=2228447#p2228447

yeah well apparently both epac watcher and atlantic have to pay attention to the system south of panama things are going to happen fast ( if it develops) come tomorrow west of costa rica we should be seeing it organize pretty fast already showing some signs.

[ROCK]

yeah the 12Z NOGAPS was entertaining.....heading for the NGOM with a nice hurricane...but its the NOGAPS...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical