Global model runs discussion

[HURRICANELONNY]

I've been skimming through posts lately. Looking at models. It's about the same every year. Lowering pressures in the Caribbean and the models go nuts. I would just say moisture will increase in the caribbean and gulf next week. A cold front coming through Florida this time of year can only cause trouble.

[floridasun78]

so now models showing that we wont see TS by weekend or nextweek that good sign

[HurricaneTracker]

[img] http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... precip.gif [/img]

GFS 12UTC Shows Tropical Depression over Bahamas

[floridasun78]

now in bahamas their issue with models

[Aric Dunn]

from miami.

'A BROAD LOW PRESSURE MAY TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA".

key west.

"LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS BEEN INDICATED BY LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT HAS NOW BECOME QUITE
UNCERTAIN. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES BECAUSE A DEEP LAYERED WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LINGERING OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PERHAPS REACHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
ECMWF RUN NOW BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TUESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...PENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF
THE TROUGH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE DRAWN
OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS ANY LOW LEVEL FORCING
OR UPPER LEVEL ASCENT. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS
WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES."

[floridasun78]

from miami.

'A BROAD LOW PRESSURE MAY TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA".

key west.

"LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS BEEN INDICATED BY LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT HAS NOW BECOME QUITE
UNCERTAIN. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES BECAUSE A DEEP LAYERED WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LINGERING OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PERHAPS REACHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
ECMWF RUN NOW BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TUESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...PENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF
THE TROUGH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE DRAWN
OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS ANY LOW LEVEL FORCING
OR UPPER LEVEL ASCENT. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS
WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES."

but look like wont be tropical system more like rain maker

[Rgv20]

Brownsville afternoon discussion......Bear Watch in effect for the GOM!

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL STILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ITS
INFLUENCE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS AS AN
UPPER LOW DEEPENS ACROSS BAJA MEXICO AND THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST PORTION OF THE US. MEANWHILE DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SATURDAY.
IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING ABOUT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT ALL THAT HIGH...BUT MODELS HAVE
PERSISTED WITH THIS SOLUTIONS FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS NOW. ANOTHER
TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
BOTTOM LINE IS THE GULF BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO.

[wxman57]

Nothing new today. Each model has its own solution for next week's tropical activity, and each model run of each model is often quite different. The only thing agreed on by all is a general increase in tropical moisture across the western Caribbean and southern Gulf next week. This would argue for an enhanced chance of development vs. climatology. We'll have to wait another 3-4 days before the situation comes into better focus.

[NDG]

[img] http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... precip.gif [/img]

GFS 12UTC Shows Tropical Depression over Bahamas

If it was to be correct, which has no other model support of showing it tracking towards the Bahamas, it will be one heck of a sheared system, which is why it shows it being elongated.

[NDG]

Nothing new today. Each model has its own solution for next week's tropical activity, and each model run of each model is often quite different. The only thing agreed on by all is a general increase in tropical moisture across the western Caribbean and southern Gulf next week. This would argue for an enhanced chance of development vs. climatology. We'll have to wait another 3-4 days before the situation comes into better focus.

Totally agree with you.

[HurricaneTracker]

[img] http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... precip.gif [/img]

GFS 12UTC Shows Tropical Depression over Bahamas

If it was to be correct, which has no other model support of showing it tracking towards the Bahamas, it will be one heck of a sheared system, which is why it shows it being elongated.

That is correct NDG!

[Dean4Storms]

This maybe a case where the models don't pin it down until development begins to occur.

[cycloneye]

I am sure that this graphic will make a few peeps happy as it announces a Medium chance for Tropical Development after the 20th of June in the NW Caribbean/GOM.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/



During Week-1, the enhanced phase of the MJO and model guidance favor enhanced rainfall for parts of northwest Pacific, eastern Pacific, and central America. Some model guidance also supports elevated chances of above-average rainfall for the Gulf of Guinea region. Suppressed convection is forecast from southern India through the western half of the Maritime Continent and also for part of east-central Africa, in accordance with MJO composites and most model guidance. Many models are indicating tropical cyclone development may occur in the eastern Pacific and are developing one or more low level circulations during this time. Some models are also developing a low level circulation in the western Caribbean late during week-1, although there is greater consensus it may develop during week-2. Tropical cyclone development is consistent with the enhanced phase of the MJO moving across the region.

For Week-2, suppressed convection is forecast to continue across the eastern Indian Ocean, southern India, and the western Maritime Continent. It is expected to expand eastward to Papua New Guinea as the core of the suppressed phase of the MJO moves eastward during this time. Enhanced convection is forecast to continue across the northwest Pacific, eastern Pacific, and Central America, consistent with MJO composities. The forecast enhanced low level westerly anomalies associated with the departing MJO signal increases chances for tropical cyclone development east of the Philippines. The odds for tropical cyclone development across the northwest Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico are expected to be elevated due to the enhanced phase of the MJO. This includes areas near the Bahamas and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Some models develop a low level circulation in this region. Enhanced convection is also forecast for the Gulf of Guinea associated with the MJO and anomalous low level convergence in the area.

[floridasun78]

i going vacation on june 23 so i hope any thing will stay alway

[Cyclenall]

Luis, it only says medium chance for tropical development after the 20th of June in the NW Caribbean/GOM. It is expanded though.

[cycloneye]

Luis, it only says medium chance for tropical development after the 20th of June in the NW Caribbean/GOM. It is expanded though.

I fixed it. Thanks for letting me know.

[Rgv20]

The 0z & 12z ECMWF forecast a pocket of low wind shear in the BOC area by next Wed and Thurs...Its going to be interesting how this plays out.

[NDG]

The 0z & 12z ECMWF forecast a pocket of low wind shear in the BOC area by next Wed and Thurs...Its going to be interesting how this plays out.

You have a link or pic to those graphics?

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS has a low dancing a jig in the western Gulf and one over the NW Bahamas doing the Tango!!



For your amusement..........

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[Rgv20]

The 0z & 12z ECMWF forecast a pocket of low wind shear in the BOC area by next Wed and Thurs...Its going to be interesting how this plays out.

You have a link or pic to those graphics?

I do but Accuweather wont be to amuse if I post them....