WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[ManilaTC]

Any sustained movement south of the forecast track does not bode well for Luzon in the long run.

[dexterlabio]

JMA now has it at 115 knots.....forecast to peak at 120 knots!

[ManilaTC]

** WTPQ20 RJTD 311200 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1504 MAYSAK (1504)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311200UTC 10.2N 139.9E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 11.3N 135.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 895HPA
MXWD 120KT
GUST 170KT
48HF 021200UTC 12.7N 133.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 031200UTC 13.9N 130.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[senorpepr]

Typhoon Warnings remain in effect for Fais, Ulithi, and Yap Island.

The 1200 GMT observation was not transmitted from Falalop Island (Ulithi). Based on satellite, though, they are in the southwest quadrant of the eyewall.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

So far, Best track for Maysak

Date Time Lat Lon Wind (mph) Pressure Storm Type
27-Mar 00 GMT 6.8 158 30 1008 Tropical Depression
27-Mar 06 GMT 7 157.4 35 1004 Tropical Depression
27-Mar 12 GMT 7.4 156.6 40 996 Tropical Storm
27-Mar 18 GMT 7.5 155.9 40 996 Tropical Storm
28-Mar 00 GMT 7.6 154.9 50 989 Tropical Storm
28-Mar 06 GMT 7.6 154.6 65 982 Tropical Storm
28-Mar 12 GMT 7.5 153.5 70 978 Tropical Storm
28-Mar 18 GMT 7.3 152.8 75 975 Typhoon
29-Mar 00 GMT 7.3 151.8 80 970 Typhoon
29-Mar 06 GMT 7.6 150.9 85 967 Typhoon
29-Mar 12 GMT 8 149.7 90 967 Typhoon
29-Mar 18 GMT 8.1 148.3 100 959 Typhoon
30-Mar 00 GMT 8.4 146.9 100 959 Typhoon
30-Mar 06 GMT 8.8 145.8 105 956 Typhoon
30-Mar 12 GMT 9 144.8 110 952 Typhoon
30-Mar 18 GMT 9.4 143.7 145 929 Typhoon
31-Mar 00 GMT 9.6 142.5 145 929 Typhoon
31-Mar 06 GMT 10 141.3 160 918 Super Typhoon
31-Mar 12 GMT 10.2 139.9 160 918 Super Typhoon

[Yellow Evan]

Looks truly stunning.

[Yellow Evan]

eye up to 18.1C




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAR 2015 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 10:16:51 N Lon : 139:30:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 928.8mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.8 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +18.1C Cloud Region Temp : -75.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 107km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 13.6 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 10.2N 139.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 139.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 10.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.5N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.2N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.0N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.2N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.0N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.7N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 139.3E.
SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Going west of GFS

[Yellow Evan]

Any agencies at T7.5?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

UKMET track

[euro6208]

This looks like a 7.5 now...

At least 150-155 knots 1 min...

Any agencies at T7.5?

Nope...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 311205 AAA
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...UPDATED
SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1000 PM CHST TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED FOR ULITHI

...DANGEROUS SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK PASSING FAIS AND NEARING ULITHI...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF FAIS...ULITHI AND YAP IN YAP STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LAST FOR ANOTHER 3 TO
4 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING AT ULITHI. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AROUND DAWN...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN YAP WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 140.7E

ABOUT 30 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 185 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON MAYSAK HAS MADE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO FAIS AND
CONTINUES TOWARD ULITHI IN YAP STATE. THE TYPHOON IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE EYE OF MAYSAK JUST NORTH OF
ULITHI AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAYSAK IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF YAP
AROUND DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. MAYSAK IS CURRENTLY A STRONG CATEGORY 5
TYPHOON WITH 160 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS. MAYSAK IS FORECASTED TO
MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

...FAIS...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN IN SAFE SHELTER UNTIL WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED! TYPHOON MAYSAK IS
NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 TYPHOON ON A CATEGORY SCALE WITH 5 BEING
THE STRONGEST. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.
LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TYPHOON MAYSAK IS NOW A CATEGORY 5 TYPHOON WITH WINDS OF 160 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS MOVES AWAY FROM FAIS. WEST WINDS OF 80 TO 100
MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND
DECREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND REDUCE FURTHER TO 25 TO 35 MPH BY SUNRISE.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS OF 20 TO 30 FEET MAY BE OCCURRING WITH TYPHOON MAYSAK'S
CLOSEST APPROACH. IN ADDITION...PEAK SURF HEIGHTS OF 25 FEET AND
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 8 TO 12 FEET ALONG WINDWARD SHORELINES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 FEET BY SUNRISE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING
AREAS.

...ULITHI...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMAIN IN SAFE SHELTER UNTIL WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED! TYPHOON MAYSAK
IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 ON A CATEGORY SCALE WITH 5 BEING
THE STRONGEST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEGUN
AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON. MAKE SURE YOU
HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER THAT WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

UPDATED WIND CONDITIONS AT 31 MARCH 1200 UTC (10PM CHST)

...WIND INFORMATION...

TYPHOON MAYSAK IS NOW A CATEGORY 5 TYPHOON WITH WINDS OF 160 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WHEN IT APPROACHES ULITHI. WINDS IN EXCESS OF
100 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE PAST HOUR...9 TO 10 PM CHST...
AS THE SOUTHERN EYE WALL WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY PASSING ALONG
THE NORTH PORTION OF THE ATOLL. THESE EXTREME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO LAST FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 3 HOURS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEAKEN TO 40 TO 60 MPH FOR ANOTHER 4 TO 6 HOURS BEFORE THEY
SHIFT AGAIN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 30 TO 40 MPH BY DAWN.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS OF 15 TO 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF TYPHOON MAYSAK. IN ADDITION...PEAK SURF HEIGHTS OF 25
FEET AND COASTAL INUNDATION OF 6 TO 10 FEET WITH COMPLETE OVERWASH
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WINDWARD SHORELINES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

...YAP...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING ON YAP AS TYPHOON MAYSAK PASSES NORTH OF THE
ISLAND. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
ENSURE THAT FOOD AND WATER THAT WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO
A SHELTER. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TYPHOON MAYSAK WILL BE A MAJOR CATEGORY 5 TYPHOON WITH
WINDS OF 160 MPH WHEN IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF YAP LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND
INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 MPH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DURING THIS TIME
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS MAY BE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF YAP. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL FURTHER
DECREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH BY NOON.


...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...PEAK SURF HEIGHTS OF 22 FEET AND COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 4 TO 6 FEET ALONG WINDWARD SHORELINES IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE PASSAGE OF MAYSAK.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF MAYSAK. LOCAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 300 AM...OR SOONER IF NEEDED.

$$

ZIOBRO

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Any agencies at T7.5?

Perhaps JMA. They went with 115 kts.

[euro6208]

Poor Fais and Falalop, Ulithi taking the brunt of this Category 5...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND DEEPEN WITH THE 17-NM EYE PREVALENT. A
311231Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CLEARLY DEFINED AS
WRAPPING INTO THE EYE. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) AND
VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. STY MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE, STY 04W WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT A DECREASING
TREND IN THE INTENSITY OF STY MAYSAK BEYOND TAU 24 AS VWS INCREASES
AND THE SYSTEM TAKES A SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TURN AS STY MAYSAK
APPROACHES A SMALL BREAK IN THE STR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY 04W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LUZON BEYOND TAU 96. EXPECT A FURTHER RAPID
DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Very warm core...

[mrbagyo]

Image: SSEC Real Earth

[Yellow Evan]

Cloud tops warming, so IMO may have peaked.

[euro6208]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2946

Category 5 Super Typhoon Maysak Pounding Micronesia

Extremely dangerous Category 5 Super Typhoon Maysak is pounding the islands of Yap State in Micronesia's Caroline Islands. At 8 am EDT Tuesday the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) put Maysak's top sustained winds at 160 mph, making it one of only three Category 5 storms ever observed in the Western Pacific prior to April.