WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

:uarrow:
Wow that would be historic... GFDL has a history of overdoing things...

nearly every model blows this up once it turns NE

[TheStormExpert]

18z Model Guidance



18z Intensity Guidance

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah I've been looking at the HWRF and GFDL. I think they need to be thrown out as well. Kilo is barely classifiable.

They are initializing properly it seems. And they don't do much with this for another 24 hours.

Probs best to go with the GFDL/HWRF for track and GFS/ECMWF for intensity.

[Alyono]

just thinking

Iwa may be a better analog for this than Iniki

[Yellow Evan]

just thinking

Iwa may be a better analog for this than Iniki

Agreed, but likely stronger.

[Kingarabian]

The synoptic mission should be going on now, right?

[Yellow Evan]

The synoptic mission should be going on now, right?

AFAIK yes. Should help the 0z ECMWF/GFS runs, though I don't know which ridge they're investigating.

[Yellow Evan]

[Alyono]

reminding me of Fay. Vigorous in the mid levels. Nothing at the surface.

The issue with pulling the plug is this will likely redevelop by Monday

[srainhoutx]

The synoptic mission should be going on now, right?

AF 304 that flew out to Kilo this morning is currently W of Lihue/Kauai flying the synoptic mission. Getting a breezy tropical shower on Waikiki Beach at this time as well.

[Alyono]

18Z MU already too far west after just 9 hours

[Alyono]

Fix your model, Uccellini. Kilo is not going to move 20 kts during the next 12 hours

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 222044
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2015

U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 30 KT ON THE APPROACH INTO KILO THIS MORNING...WHICH IS THE
BASIS FOR MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT. ALTHOUGH
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING PERSISTENT VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE WEST OF THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL CENTER...THE AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE
TO MAKE A SECOND FIX ON THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...A 1745 UTC SSMIS
PASS SUGGESTED ANOTHER CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH A RATHER ELONGATED PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS
AROUND KILO. ALL OF THIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT...FOR THE
MOMENT...KILO REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13. A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII IS CONTINUING TO STEER THE DEPRESSION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDS TO THE WEST OF THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PUTTING KILO IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF VERY WEAK
STEERING. THE FORECAST THUS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION BY DAY 3. BEYOND DAY 3...A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS KILO STARTS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF HAWAII. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS...THEN INDICATES A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5...TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

ALTHOUGH KILO HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE THUS FAR...THE
ENVIRONMENT CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES KILO OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
28-29C AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AS KILO MOVES TOWARD...AND THEN
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT STILL WELL BELOW THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFDL AND HWRF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 14.2N 159.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 14.9N 161.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 16.0N 163.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.8N 164.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 17.6N 164.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 18.9N 164.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 19.4N 163.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 20.0N 163.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[Yellow Evan]

The issue with pulling the plug is this will likely redevelop by Monday

I agree it's not worth pulling the plug unless we get more confirmation, but you never know what the CPHC will do.

[srainhoutx]

The CHPC is being very cautious with Kilo. Don't look for them to 'pull the plug' anytime soon with the guidance suggesting a stall and re curve back toward Hawaii. The Hotels are very near 100% occupied on Oahu alone and the local folks are very aware that a storm is brewing to the S. It has been the topic of discussion by the staff all morning. In fact, most everyone that talked to me so far today are getting their Hurricane supplies this afternoon or tomorrow. I was actually surprised that many have been asking me what is the latest and wanting to see the satellite imagery on my android... It will be interesting to see if the area NE of the main convection becomes a more dominate surface low. It appears via looped VIS imagery and HIRES 1 km zoomed imagery that a more northerly motion is beginning. Look at the 'notched' area N of 14N on the image below.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS quite similar to the 12z expect a little more NNW through 72 hours. Starts to intesfyin this late Monday/early Tuesday.

[Yellow Evan]

Through 108 hours

[Kingarabian]

The CHPC is being very cautious with Kilo. Don't look for them to 'pull the plug' anytime soon with the guidance suggesting a stall and re curve back toward Hawaii. The Hotels are very near 100% occupied on Oahu alone and the local folks are very aware that a storm is brewing to the S. It has been the topic of discussion by the staff all morning. In fact, most everyone that talked to me so far today are getting their Hurricane supplies this afternoon or tomorrow. I was actually surprised that many have been asking me what is the latest and wanting to see the satellite imagery on my android... It will be interesting to see if the area NE of the main convection becomes a more dominate surface low. It appears via looped VIS imagery and HIRES 1 km zoomed imagery that a more northerly motion is beginning. Look at the 'notched' area N of 14N on the image below.

I'm glad they're taking heed and preparing.

Right now I have a lot of cases of water, canned goods, batteries, and toilet paper. I'm going to wait on the 00z Euro and GFS runs and see what they show. If they continue showing what they're currently showing, I'm going to head to The Home Depot tomorrow and buy some plywood to board up my house.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah tonight's 00z model runs SHOULD tell the story of whether the threat to Hawaii is high or lessening. Still even bare minimal effects from a TS can cause SERIOUS issues to these Islands since they're not used to these storms.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS actually still takes this west as they end up re-deepening the ridge.