Global model runs discussion

[mcheer23]

12z GFS develops a low pressure around the first of August

[ConvergenceZone]

cycloneye, do you think we will get any activity in August?, or do you think we will have to wait until early-mid September to get any activity?

[cycloneye]

cycloneye, do you think we will get any activity in August?, or do you think we will have to wait until early-mid September to get any activity?

No waiting as from mid to late August things will blossom for a period of time before El Nino halts the ladder part of season.

[ConvergenceZone]

cycloneye, do you think we will get any activity in August?, or do you think we will have to wait until early-mid September to get any activity?

No waiting as from mid to late August things will blossom for a period of time before El Nino halts the ladder part of season.

Probably not a bad prediction as I heard people talking about El Nino on another board. Thus 2012 might be one of those quick hit brief seasons where we have a some good activity for 2 to 3 weeks before it winds down in September. Yep, good old El Nino.

[cycloneye]

CMC,NOGAPS GFS and a little bit ECMWF have some type of development of wave behind P07L in Central Atlantic. Of course we need consistency by them in future runs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[ROCK]

the 18Z NOGAPS really likes the wave about to splash down...maybe this first wave is plowing the road for the big boy behind it....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[cycloneye]

Take is with a grain of salt as is only one GFS ensemble member,is long range and the operational doesn't have it. Let's see at the 12z run if this ensemble still has this and the operational shows it or not. Is a recurver but Bermuda would get wacked.

[OuterBanker]

Nogaps is indeed very interesting. But, have they ever been right?

GFS I think is too strong too early.

Euro is too weak I think, but I do think the track will be more south.

Anyway, It should bring Cycloneye some much needed rain.

Meanwhile, we are over our drought. It can stop raining now. I can't remember a stormier July here.

Before we start season over let's remember the first hurricane of last year. It was Irene, remember

[mcheer23]

CMC send something toward Puerto Rico

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[mcheer23]

GFS has something VERY low latitude ..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[GCANE]

GFS has something VERY low latitude ..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Both models developing the 1011mb surface low currently at ~10N 30W

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/satana ... t_TAFB.png

[NDG]

For entertaining purposes only.
Last night's CMC has the tropical wave SW of the CV islands as a hurricane making landfall near Cape Canaveral FL 10 days from now.

[Riptide]

A different view, pretty impressive.

[ROCK]

NOGAPS is liking PR in this run!!

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

RAM has some semi floaters on the TW heading into the LA's and the other low lat one behind it.

BTW- that low lat looks very good. I suspect the first wave was the fullback and this one the models are hinting on is the running back....



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[ROCK]

18z GFS is showing our low lat guy into the lower Ant....at 150hr


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


carib cruiser in 7 days....168hr

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M



after 7 days we get into la la land but I will keep posting for entertainment purposes only....

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is showing our low lat guy into the lower Ant....at 150hr


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


carib cruiser in 7 days....168hr

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M



after 7 days we get into la la land but I will keep posting for entertainment purposes only....

A much stronger run that past ones.

[blp]

18z 276hr

Into the SE U.S.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP276.gif

Regardless of were it goes, the one thing I am looking at for a few days is that strong ridge in the Atlantic. So far most of the models are showing this and have been for many days. Alot of times you get a pattern that settles in and stays that way throughout the season. Let's see what happens because if we have this setup in September I am going to be a little concerned.

[cycloneye]

Searching the internet I found a neat site of the HWRF model.It has the past runs of the 2012 systems so far and with restricted access,you can see actual runs every six hours. Is actually developing one of the Pouches in the MDR.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/index.html

[blp]

Searching the internet I found a neat site of the HWRF model.It has the past runs of the 2012 systems so far and with restricted access,you can see actual runs every six hours. Is actually developing one of the Pouches in the MDR.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/index.html

[]http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee88/nrtiwlnvragn/8b8c4da3.png[/img]

Excellent site. Thanks for sharing.