Global model runs discussion

[KWT]

ECM comes to life tonight and develops 2-3 systems, including a quickly strengthening TS/cane heading towards the E.Caribbean:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP240.gif

Plenty of hints that another bout of development may happen 8-14 days time.

[cycloneye]

KWT, is the first time during this season that ECM develops a MDR system.But we have to wait for a few more runs to see if it continues to show this to then give it more credibility.

[Rgv20]

is that what was td 7?

NWS in Brownsville seem to think so....this afternoon discussion.

"THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THE
WEEKEND. GFS HINTS ON DEVELOPING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS WAVE
AND KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE ECMWF 12Z MODEL
HAS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AT THIS TIME WITH THIS WAVE REACHING
THE LOWER TEXAS GULF BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. CMC IS THE OUTLIER
LEAVING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXPANDED ACROSS THE WEST AND INTO THE
GULF BLOCKING THE LOWER VALLEY COMPLETELY OF ANY CONVECTION."

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS continues to reflect this system making it northward to lower TX coast.

[SFLcane]

European model suggest we may see another burst of storms as we approach the heart of the season before el nino's influence takes hold. Till now most easterly waves have had a real difficult time developing due to sal/sinking air and the pattern as of this post in my view favors recurving tc's so we'll see.








The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Well , what a difference a run makes as the 12z Euro had a developing hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles,but the 00z run doesn't have anything. In other words the waiting game continues as the models continue inconsistent. And this is occuring as we enter the peak of the season.

[rainstorm]

it may be the 12z was just a burp. the conditions in the atlantic just arent conducive.

[tolakram]

Based on the following data I'm not so sure we're seeing El Nino conditions yet, but once again we're seeing the below average instability.

Tropical Atlantic





Gulf

[rainstorm]

isnt the MJO supposed to be favorable now? maybe it isnt. anyway, when i saw the 12z euro yesterday i looked at africa and i didnt see any developed waves, and its worse this morning, so the 0z euro makes more sense.

[NDG]

Based on the following data I'm not so sure we're seeing El Nino conditions yet, but once again we're seeing the below average instability.

Tropical Atlantic

http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/614/zzgetatshr.png

http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/6741/zzgetatins.png

Gulf

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/3473/zzgegmxshr.png

http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/5151/zzgegmxins.png

I agree with you, but if there is one area that might be getting affected by the warming of the ENSO regions already is the Caribbean.
The lack of instability is mind boggling.

[cycloneye]

Is kinda eerie to see none of the principal models (GFS/ECMWF) develop anything between Africa and Lesser Antilles as the peak period of the North Atlantic season begins on the 15th and that is not a good sign. Let's see if that changes in the next runs.

[tolakram]

Here are the Caribbean charts. Same thing; below normal shear and below normal instability.

[rainstorm]

Based on the following data I'm not so sure we're seeing El Nino conditions yet, but once again we're seeing the below average instability.

Tropical Atlantic

http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/614/zzgetatshr.png

http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/6741/zzgetatins.png

Gulf

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/3473/zzgegmxshr.png

http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/5151/zzgegmxins.png

I agree with you, but if there is one area that might be getting affected by the warming of the ENSO regions already is the Caribbean.
The lack of instability is mind boggling.

i agree. looking at the atlantic today there just isnt anything out there. lets hope the long range models show something soon.

[Ntxw]

A little research I did, even though El Nino doesn't effect directly to the Atlantic at it's early stages it does effect the Indian ocean monsoon. This moisture feeds into the ITCZ through Africa and aids waves to survive longer/stronger through the MDR. Maybe that is why the models are not showing much? Indian monsoon has been nonexistent past several days. Maybe when that picks (if it does) we'll see them show more stuff.

[Stormcenter]

I know I'm probably not in going to be popular by saying this but I'm estactic to see the models showing nothing developing in the next few weeks. We just don't need it anywhere in the U.S. or anywhere else. IMO

[gatorcane]

Looks like another big surge of SAL is moving off the African Coast into the Atlantic. I am wondering if that is why the global models are not showing anything even in the long-range out there..... ?

The vis loop here shows the SAL on the far-right hand side of the loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

Nothing developing in the MDR between Africa and Lesser Antilles on the 12z GFS thru August 29th and this strikes me because the period that is supposed to be active as the start of the peak of the season on August 15 arrives shows anything.

12z GFS

[Frank2]

I know I'm probably not in going to be popular by saying this but I'm estactic to see the models showing nothing developing in the next few weeks. We just don't need it anywhere in the U.S. or anywhere else. IMO

Yes, with gas here in South Florida currently at $3.76 (for 87 - $4.00 for 93) we'd be seeing gas at $5 or $6 or more a gallon if we had a 2004 or 2005 season - we are very fortunate that El Nino is arriving at this time...

Frank

[rainstorm]

depressing the GFS shows nothing.

[wxwatcher1999]

Is there something in the sw gom trying to spin up?