Global model runs discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah 12z Euro very interesting. not sure of the motion. depends on how far north it exits the coast.

[Aric Dunn]

Also the gfs has a piece of the energy from TD7 move into the BOC then drift north and develops it and takes into bownsville.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Aric Dunn]

there it is over africa....

[SoupBone]

there it is over africa....

[img][/img]

That looks downright nasty.

[HurricaneFan]

Yeah 12z Euro very interesting. not sure of the motion. depends on how far north it exits the coast.

Do you mean that it can possibly make it across to the Lesser Antilles?
An earlier run by the Euro was showing that a few days ago,but of course the models have been quite inconsistent lately.

[ROCK]

lets see where it splashes down.....further south not for certain a fish storm.....it is impressive for being over land..

[Blown Away]

06z GFS: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfstropical850mbVortSLPGFSLoop.html

384 Hours

Big boy or girl moving across the Atlantic at 384 hours.

[Blown Away]

06 GFS: 240 Hours: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html


12z Euro: 240 Hours: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html


At 240 hours, the Euro has a deeper low moving across the Atlantic and begins to recurve well east of the islands. The GFS has the same low not as deep moving across the Atlantic, degenerates into a wave and moves over the NE Caribbean islands, and finally this wave crosses the Florida peninsula. I think our wave just off Africa is the one the models are picking up on. The GFS is seeing a pattern that could bring this area towards the islands and CONUS. Just a wait and see now!

[Aric Dunn]

its seems awfully low latitude right now over africa... dont think it will head NW. the weakness maybe not so large. noticed the gfs now keeps it west and the euro not so much of a recurve.

[HurricaneWarning92]

All of a sudden now things got interesting...

[sunnyday]

I read in a blog that a tropical wave is supposed to come off Africa in 6 to 7 days and that several models are predicting development. Will someone please direct me to those models or to some further information about this wave?
Thank you.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

That big buzz saw moving across the Atlantic near the end run I believe is the wave you are referring to!

[Nimbus]

Looks like a more zonal flow in the trade-winds with a weaker mid Atlantic TUTT. Moisture pushing west off Africa ahead of this area looks adequate and its the 15th of August so it has my attention.

Wish it were a little further north so it might recurve. Doubt this one will make a run for Mexico with the current setup.

[sunnyday]

Thank you, Blown Away, but I keep getting "File not found" at that address. Is there another way to see the information, or at least can you tell me where the buzz saw is headed in the end run.
Thank you1

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF at 240 hours shows a little bit more west system than at the 00z.

[Blown Away]

Thank you, Blown Away, but I keep getting "File not found" at that address. Is there another way to see the information, or at least can you tell me where the buzz saw is headed in the end run.
Thank you1

The 384 position is the end, it was generally moving west until it reached the end of the run! Where it goes from there is unknown??


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
This is where I go.

[sunnyday]

Thank you! Let's hope this one doesn't come our way. Any thoughts on where you might guess (I know it's a long way off).

[Blown Away]

Thank you! Let's hope this one doesn't come our way. Any thoughts on where you might guess (I know it's a long way off).

The Euro wants to recurve it east of the islands, but the latest Euro run was a little farther west, so who knows. EC trough seems persistent, but late August early September is go time, so we gotta watch!

MY PREDICTION: In about 9 days this wave will emerge off Africa and will become Major Hurricane Isaac. Isaac will generally move west across the Atlantic and just miss the NE Caribbean on it's way to Hobe Sound. Isaac will set the all time activity record on Storm2k!

[KWT]

If a system does manage to get further west (say past 60W) without recurving then the pattern I'm seeing in the models would suggest a possible threat. There is troughing but its quite weak and not the sort of angle that will scoop systems NE, but rather just shift the track to a NW/N direction. Same goes for the Gulf if anything manages to get into the Caribbean.

Models are all over the place at the moment.

[Hurricane Alexis]

The 00z runs of the GFS and euro both show a cat 2/cat 3 fish storm recurving east of the lesser antilles and passing east of bermuda.