CrazyC83 wrote:Based on the data right now, 70 kt seems right but the plane hasn't been in the entire storm at all.
I'd go 75/974.
EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical
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Re:
I'd go 75/974.
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* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BLANCA EP022015 06/05/15 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 66 66 67 59 46 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 70 67 66 66 67 59 46 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 70 66 64 62 61 57 50 41 29 28 27 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 12 9 9 12 18 16 12 14 15 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 6 6 8 10 4 6 4 10 7 13 2
SHEAR DIR 102 112 101 99 112 110 133 170 195 201 181 170 183
SST (C) 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.3 27.5 26.0 24.4 22.8 22.3 22.4 22.0 21.8 22.3
POT. INT. (KT) 162 157 153 147 139 123 106 90 84 84 79 76 81
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 4
700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 63 62 58 56 53 51 46 43 39 31
MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 35 36 37 33 27 21 16 9 6 3 3
850 MB ENV VOR 86 86 79 59 60 65 58 59 37 25 2 7 -10
200 MB DIV 70 77 96 53 15 -16 -48 -27 -19 -11 6 32 16
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 0 2 3 2 0 -2 -1 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 546 521 513 489 471 355 206 103 -28 -15 -26 -58 -33
LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.1 18.0 19.7 21.2 23.0 24.9 26.1 26.7 27.2 27.7
LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.9 108.5 109.0 109.4 110.1 110.8 111.3 111.7 112.1 112.7 113.0 112.9
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 10 8 5 4 3 2
HEAT CONTENT 38 28 29 15 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -7. -14. -18. -22. -26. -31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. -1. -9. -19. -25. -35. -40. -44. -42.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -3. -11. -24. -42. -57. -74. -86. -98.-104.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BLANCA EP022015 06/05/15 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 66 66 67 59 46 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 70 67 66 66 67 59 46 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 70 66 64 62 61 57 50 41 29 28 27 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 12 9 9 12 18 16 12 14 15 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 6 6 8 10 4 6 4 10 7 13 2
SHEAR DIR 102 112 101 99 112 110 133 170 195 201 181 170 183
SST (C) 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.3 27.5 26.0 24.4 22.8 22.3 22.4 22.0 21.8 22.3
POT. INT. (KT) 162 157 153 147 139 123 106 90 84 84 79 76 81
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 4
700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 63 62 58 56 53 51 46 43 39 31
MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 35 36 37 33 27 21 16 9 6 3 3
850 MB ENV VOR 86 86 79 59 60 65 58 59 37 25 2 7 -10
200 MB DIV 70 77 96 53 15 -16 -48 -27 -19 -11 6 32 16
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 0 2 3 2 0 -2 -1 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 546 521 513 489 471 355 206 103 -28 -15 -26 -58 -33
LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.1 18.0 19.7 21.2 23.0 24.9 26.1 26.7 27.2 27.7
LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.9 108.5 109.0 109.4 110.1 110.8 111.3 111.7 112.1 112.7 113.0 112.9
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 10 8 5 4 3 2
HEAT CONTENT 38 28 29 15 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -7. -14. -18. -22. -26. -31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. -1. -9. -19. -25. -35. -40. -44. -42.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -3. -11. -24. -42. -57. -74. -86. -98.-104.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BLANCA - Hurricane
70/975
EP, 02, 2015060518, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1072W, 70, 975, HU
EP, 02, 2015060518, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1072W, 70, 975, HU
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Re: EPAC: BLANCA - Hurricane
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M a r k
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Re: EPAC: BLANCA - Hurricane
Zoomed in live loop:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=13&lon=-105&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=13&lon=-105&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10
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Re: EPAC: BLANCA - Hurricane
cycloneye wrote:70/975
EP, 02, 2015060518, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1072W, 70, 975, HU
Maybe 80/974. Could be strengthening.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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Re: EPAC: BLANCA - Hurricane
Kingarabian wrote:cycloneye wrote:70/975
EP, 02, 2015060518, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1072W, 70, 975, HU
Maybe 80/974. Could be strengthening.
I'd go 80/973.
Probs steady state, but who knows. This was the first SE pass they made.
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ADT is not good for Blanca!!!
So it really did collapse spectacularly on Wednesday afternoon and evening, that was rapid weakening after rapid deepening! Blanca looks far better then it has in the last 36 hours and this is the result. Also yet another TC documented where ADT values are inaccurate, off by 40 knots here. They are infallible when there is no recon around, but when there is, everyone ignores it especially when off to this extent. So I wonder how this is going to get to 907 mb by tomorrow per the GFS LOL 
.
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUN 2015 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 15:22:20 N Lon : 107:08:56 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 946.8mb/112.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.4 5.3
Center Temp : -55.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.4C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
I think you nailed it, it was not bearish at all to declare that Blanca weakened to a TS yesterday considering what recon is finding right now.
.----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUN 2015 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 15:22:20 N Lon : 107:08:56 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 946.8mb/112.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.4 5.3
Center Temp : -55.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.4C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
MiamiensisWx wrote:*Cut* Right now, Blanca looks more like a typical Atlantic storm of the past several seasons, and it is definitely no longer a hurricane in my view. Big kudos to the HWRF and GFDL for seeing something that even the NHC dismissed.
I think you nailed it, it was not bearish at all to declare that Blanca weakened to a TS yesterday considering what recon is finding right now.
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Maybe not quite a tropical storm, but I think the best track will bring the intensity yesterday down to 65 kt or so (the peak intensity shouldn't change). The latest data provides strong support for an 80 kt initial intensity.
NHC won't toy with the intensity much if at all yesterday.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BLANCA - Hurricane
18z Best Track upped to 80kts.
EP, 02, 2015060518, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1072W, 80, 975, HU
EP, 02, 2015060518, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1072W, 80, 975, HU
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BLANCA - Hurricane
HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015
An Air Force reconnaissance plane reached the core of Blanca and
measured with the SFMR a peak wind of 81 kt as it was flying across
the southeastern eyewall. These winds were confined to a very small
area, and the surface winds were barely of hurricane force in
the remainder of the circulation. However, it measured 90 kt at
700 mb as it was exiting the eye on the northwest side. On this
basis, the initial intensity has been set at 80 kt. Although the NHC
intensity forecast does not show strengthening, Blanca has a small
opportunity to do so before it moves over cooler waters in about a
day. Thereafter, a gradual weakening should begin, and Blanca is
expected to be a tropical storm as it moves near or over the
southern Baja California peninsula. It should then become a remnant
low when it encounters the high terrain. In fact, the statistical
intensity guidance dissipates the cyclone beyond 72 hours.
Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Blanca is moving
toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is moving
around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the
United States and northern Mexico. As Blanca gains latitude, it will
become steered by the southerly flow ahead of an approaching
mid-latitude trough and turn more toward the north. The dynamical
guidance continues to be in good agreement, bringing the cyclone
near or over the southern Baja California peninsula beyond 48 hours
or so. The NHC forecast follows very close the consensus of the GFS
and the ECMWF and is basically in the middle of the very tight
dynamical guidance envelope.
Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 15.3N 107.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.3N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 17.8N 109.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 19.7N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 21.5N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 25.0N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1800Z 27.8N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015
An Air Force reconnaissance plane reached the core of Blanca and
measured with the SFMR a peak wind of 81 kt as it was flying across
the southeastern eyewall. These winds were confined to a very small
area, and the surface winds were barely of hurricane force in
the remainder of the circulation. However, it measured 90 kt at
700 mb as it was exiting the eye on the northwest side. On this
basis, the initial intensity has been set at 80 kt. Although the NHC
intensity forecast does not show strengthening, Blanca has a small
opportunity to do so before it moves over cooler waters in about a
day. Thereafter, a gradual weakening should begin, and Blanca is
expected to be a tropical storm as it moves near or over the
southern Baja California peninsula. It should then become a remnant
low when it encounters the high terrain. In fact, the statistical
intensity guidance dissipates the cyclone beyond 72 hours.
Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Blanca is moving
toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is moving
around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the
United States and northern Mexico. As Blanca gains latitude, it will
become steered by the southerly flow ahead of an approaching
mid-latitude trough and turn more toward the north. The dynamical
guidance continues to be in good agreement, bringing the cyclone
near or over the southern Baja California peninsula beyond 48 hours
or so. The NHC forecast follows very close the consensus of the GFS
and the ECMWF and is basically in the middle of the very tight
dynamical guidance envelope.
Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 15.3N 107.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.3N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 17.8N 109.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 19.7N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 21.5N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 25.0N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1800Z 27.8N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 052039
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS BLANCA WITH 90-MPH
WINDS...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 107.5W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
southern Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe,
including Cabo San Lucas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* La Paz to Santa Fe, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 107.5 West. Blanca is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn to the
north-northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Blanca will approach the southern Baja California
peninsula on Sunday.
Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the
next 24 hours, but Blanca should begin to weaken on Sunday as it
approaches the Baja California peninsula.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200
miles (325 km).
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
plane was 976 mb (28.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico and have reached the Pacific coast of
the Baja California peninsula and the southern Gulf of California.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. For additional information, please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila
WTPZ32 KNHC 052039
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS BLANCA WITH 90-MPH
WINDS...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 107.5W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
southern Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe,
including Cabo San Lucas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* La Paz to Santa Fe, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 107.5 West. Blanca is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn to the
north-northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Blanca will approach the southern Baja California
peninsula on Sunday.
Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the
next 24 hours, but Blanca should begin to weaken on Sunday as it
approaches the Baja California peninsula.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200
miles (325 km).
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
plane was 976 mb (28.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico and have reached the Pacific coast of
the Baja California peninsula and the southern Gulf of California.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. For additional information, please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila
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Yellow Evan
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Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15827
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: BLANCA - Hurricane
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BLANCA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
600 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015
...BLANCA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 108.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* La Paz to Santa Fe, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 108.0 West. Blanca is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn to the
north-northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Blanca will approach the southern Baja California
peninsula on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the
next 24 hours, but Blanca should begin to weaken on Sunday as it
approaches the Baja California peninsula.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200
miles (325 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by early Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico and have reached the Pacific coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the southern Gulf of California. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. For additional information, please consult products
from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
HURRICANE BLANCA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
600 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015
...BLANCA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 108.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* La Paz to Santa Fe, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 108.0 West. Blanca is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn to the
north-northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Blanca will approach the southern Baja California
peninsula on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the
next 24 hours, but Blanca should begin to weaken on Sunday as it
approaches the Baja California peninsula.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200
miles (325 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by early Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico and have reached the Pacific coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the southern Gulf of California. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. For additional information, please consult products
from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUN 2015 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 15:53:17 N Lon : 108:06:51 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 932.9mb/127.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.6 6.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km
Center Temp : -16.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Date : 05 JUN 2015 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 15:53:17 N Lon : 108:06:51 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 932.9mb/127.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.6 6.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km
Center Temp : -16.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.8C
Scene Type : EYE
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TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 27
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
Re:
spiral wrote:02E BLANCA 150605 1800 15.0N 107.2W EPAC 80 975
looks absolute crap from dry air 80knts looks a token gift.
There was an internet outage this morning, and floater images for all cyclones have stopped updating. That image is from 6am EDT this morning.
Last edited by TropicalAnalystwx13 on Fri Jun 05, 2015 7:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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