WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

CPHC going 14.9N, 160.2W. I went SW of that position

[srainhoutx]

CPHC going 14.9N, 160.2W. I went SW of that position

Looks like they upgraded to a TS as well.

[Kingarabian]

Wideview:



So far it's larger than what the models are showing.

[Yellow Evan]

new GFDL does not reach 162W

12z one wasn't much different.



vs.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN41 PHFO 222357
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2335 UTC SAT AUG 22 2015

A. Tropical depression kilo.

B. 22/2330Z.

C. 14.6°N.

D. 161.2°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T2.5/2.5/d0.5/24 hrs.

G. Vis/ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Curved band of 0.5 wrap yields a DT of 2.5. Pat and met agree. Final T based on DT.

I. Addl positions none.

$$
MORRISON

[Yellow Evan]

KILO, M,
CP, 03, 2015082300, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1601W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 100, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, KILO, M,

[Yellow Evan]

Yet SAB is lower.

22/2330 UTC 15.0N 159.9W T1.5/2.0 KILO -- Central Pacific

[Kingarabian]

What is the GFDL smoking. Cat.5? Does the TCHP support cat. 5 anyway?

[Yellow Evan]

What is the GFDL smoking. Cat.5? Does the TCHP support cat. 5 anyway?

SST's near Hawaii are near 28-29C so in theory a Cat 5 is possible.

[TheStormExpert]

00z Track Guidance



00z Intensity Guidance

[srainhoutx]

[Kingarabian]

What is the GFDL smoking. Cat.5? Does the TCHP support cat. 5 anyway?

SST's near Hawaii are near 28-29C so in theory a Cat 5 is possible.

I still don't understand how it rapidly deepens into a major hurricane despite slowly moving and being stationary at times when it starts to turn NE.

[Yellow Evan]

What is the GFDL smoking. Cat.5? Does the TCHP support cat. 5 anyway?

SST's near Hawaii are near 28-29C so in theory a Cat 5 is possible.

I still don't understand how it rapidly deepens into a major hurricane despite slowly moving and being stationary at times when it starts to turn NE.

Upwelling isn't very easy to forecast. OHC values here are quite high anyhow.

[Yellow Evan]

Mid-shear is subsiding.

[Alyono]

What is the GFDL smoking. Cat.5? Does the TCHP support cat. 5 anyway?

SST's near Hawaii are near 28-29C so in theory a Cat 5 is possible.

I still don't understand how it rapidly deepens into a major hurricane despite slowly moving and being stationary at times when it starts to turn NE.

trough interaction

[Kingarabian]

Looking at the latest visible images, the shear isn't pushing the convection around anymore. Looks like the convection is holding firm, compared to yesterday, where the convection was constantly pushed west ahead of the LLC

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Wouldn't be surprised if Recon finds a TS.

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Depression Kilo:

Kilo has struggled to remain a tropical cyclone over the last day or so with strong shear keeping clouds away from the center. Kilo now appears to be undergoing the process of re-centering, which is common in weak tropical storms. Cloud tops are very cold and with new convection firing consistently, intensification is likely sooner or later

From our very own, Jonathan Belles.

http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/08/22/wi ... -outcomes/

[srainhoutx]

Need to watch the trough digging to the NE of Kauai. We could see some changes with the track and intensity if Kilo feels that weakness quicker that currently forecast.