Global model runs discussion

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Re:

#4201 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:18 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Yea, it's been many years since I can remember conditions looking as horrible as they do this year in the Atlantic. Usually you have dry air here or there, or shear here or there, but this year dry air and shear just seem to be dominating. And from what I've been told anyway, the El Nino isn't even here yet, so it's not as if conditions are suddenly going to magically get better once El Nino hits......
Do like me, take this normally busy season and get stuff done!! I'm doing outdoor activities and chores that I normally can't do, because I get addicted to reading this board...... Don't worry, I'm sure next year, the big storms will be back and so will the addiction to the board. It's just one of those abnormal years...... It was a strong quick start to the season which will probably be cut short by the El Nino bringing a halt to the tropical activity...........

Enjoy the time off!!!! :wink:
On a side note, I wouldn't be suprised if we get a storm or two originating in the Gulf of Mexico before the year is all said and done...


Lol, we haven't had a decent season since 2008 now. I've pretty much lost much of my interest in the tropics since there's been really nothing of note the past few years. That excitement is just going away. This year looks the same way.
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#4202 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 16, 2012 2:46 pm

I just don't see a system making it west of 70W threatening the CONUS anyway from these African Waves right now. Watch the 500mb flow and all the troughing across the Atlantic Seaboard.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html
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Re:

#4203 Postby Riptide » Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:39 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I just don't see a system making it west of 70W threatening the CONUS anyway from these African Waves right now. Watch the 500mb flow and all the troughing across the Atlantic Seaboard.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

Nothing remains forever, this pattern will break down as we head into September because the AO and NAO are going positive and the cold air has essentially filtered out of the polar regions. Which in the long-run means potential impacts from long-tracking waves; particularly in Florida and the Gulf.
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Re: Re:

#4204 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 16, 2012 4:28 pm

Lol, we haven't had a decent season since 2008 now. I've pretty much lost much of my interest in the tropics since there's been really nothing of note the past few years. That excitement is just going away. This year looks the same way.


Phew, I thought I was the only one who thought this way!...I still jump on this thread from time to time to check the latest global runs, but you are absolutely correct. 2008 and prior made me antiticaping the upcoming storm tracking season, pretty much the same way tornado chasers anticipate the tornado seasons. I couldn't WAIT until hurricane season... But the last couple of years have been absolute dull in the tropics!!!! Even the storms that due form seem to be boring to track and follow.....

While the USA doesn't need a strong hurricane to slam into land, we could sure use some serious hurricane left-over moisture for the 50 states are slowing drying out due to a horrific drought....

I think I"m pretty much ready for winter myself...Bring on the winter storms!!!!
At least then I'll have something to track, LOL....

Sorry to get off topic. I can always post this in a new thread if necessary....
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Re: Re:

#4205 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:20 pm

Riptide wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:I just don't see a system making it west of 70W threatening the CONUS anyway from these African Waves right now. Watch the 500mb flow and all the troughing across the Atlantic Seaboard.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

Nothing remains forever, this pattern will break down as we head into September because the AO and NAO are going positive and the cold air has essentially filtered out of the polar regions. Which in the long-run means potential impacts from long-tracking waves; particularly in Florida and the Gulf.


I realize that, that is why I said right now. Even though, Nino will be kicking in and shear could be a player.
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Re: Re:

#4206 Postby Riptide » Thu Aug 16, 2012 6:13 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
Riptide wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:I just don't see a system making it west of 70W threatening the CONUS anyway from these African Waves right now. Watch the 500mb flow and all the troughing across the Atlantic Seaboard.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

Nothing remains forever, this pattern will break down as we head into September because the AO and NAO are going positive and the cold air has essentially filtered out of the polar regions. Which in the long-run means potential impacts from long-tracking waves; particularly in Florida and the Gulf.


I realize that, that is why I said right now. Even though, Nino will be kicking in and shear could be a player.

There is just too much negativity in here, kind of overreacted a bit. Here's to a fun season; not necessarily landfalls but just some decent hurricanes.

:D
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#4207 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 16, 2012 6:44 pm

Well lets hope I'm right for now, don't need no Storms in the Gulf with it boiling hot!

:D
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Re:

#4208 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 6:50 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Well lets hope I'm right for now, don't need no Storms in the Gulf with it boiling hot!

:D


When was the Gulf not boiling hot? lol I hear this every single season. If the Gulf wasn't hot as hell then I would be worried as it must mean a meteorite crashed into Earth or a massive volcano erupted, lol
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#4209 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:48 am

Hmmm quite a few GFS runs have been developing a system around the 240hrs mark in the E.Atlantic, the 12z GFS takes this system very close to the Ne.Caribbean but I suspect if it does develops much depends on 94L.
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Re:

#4210 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:53 am

KWT wrote:Hmmm quite a few GFS runs have been developing a system around the 240hrs mark in the E.Atlantic, the 12z GFS takes this system very close to the Ne.Caribbean but I suspect if it does develops much depends on 94L.


Yea and with a ridge on top I would suspect this could be our first real threat of the season for the SE Coast if this comes to fruition.
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Re: Re:

#4211 Postby CourierPR » Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:24 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
KWT wrote:Hmmm quite a few GFS runs have been developing a system around the 240hrs mark in the E.Atlantic, the 12z GFS takes this system very close to the Ne.Caribbean but I suspect if it does develops much depends on 94L.


Yea and with a ridge on top I would suspect this could be our first real threat of the season for the SE Coast if this comes to fruition.


I wonder if this is what JB is seeing in his forecast for August 20-September 10?
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Re: Re:

#4212 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:26 pm

CourierPR wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
KWT wrote:Hmmm quite a few GFS runs have been developing a system around the 240hrs mark in the E.Atlantic, the 12z GFS takes this system very close to the Ne.Caribbean but I suspect if it does develops much depends on 94L.


Yea and with a ridge on top I would suspect this could be our first real threat of the season for the SE Coast if this comes to fruition.


I wonder if this is what JB is seeing in his forecast for August 20-September 10?


The beginning of the peak of hurricane season?
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Re:

#4213 Postby HurricaneFan » Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:09 pm

KWT wrote:Hmmm quite a few GFS runs have been developing a system around the 240hrs mark in the E.Atlantic, the 12z GFS takes this system very close to the Ne.Caribbean but I suspect if it does develops much depends on 94L.


In what way would the future Wave depend on 94L?
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#4214 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:04 pm

If 94L recurves early then I'd imagine the odds are a developed system from the E.Atlantic will by that point be close enough to follow it through the gap.
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#4215 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:30 pm

Whats all this chatter about Helen forming in the gulf soon? Is storm2k sleeping on this one!!!???!!?!?!? :lol:
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Re:

#4216 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:10 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Whats all this chatter about Helen forming in the gulf soon? Is storm2k sleeping on this one!!!???!!?!?!? :lol:


We've got a thread for it in the Active Storms forum. :wink: We just use this thread to talk about general long-term model runs, but we spin off discussion about particular model storms pretty quickly. 94L has its' own thread, and the wave behind it will be discussed here until it exits the coast of Africa.
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Re:

#4217 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:23 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Whats all this chatter about Helen forming in the gulf soon? Is storm2k sleeping on this one!!!???!!?!?!? :lol:


It's being tracked by the NHC as remnants of TD7, which was deactivated but then continued. This threw off the auto generated graphics on the site, but you can be sure we are discussing it.

Active Forum: viewforum.php?f=59

TD7 thread: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113275
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4218 Postby HurricaneFan » Sat Aug 18, 2012 10:20 am

What are the latest models saying about the Tropical Wave behind 94L(coming off the coast now) in terms of track and intensity?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4219 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:54 pm

Well,GFS is almost non stop with the African wave train. In the 12z run of 8/24/12 at 276 hours it shows a strong system slamming Puerto Rico and,this is not invest 97L.

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4220 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:36 pm

Once again,GFS at the 00z run develops wave now in West Africa.

162 hours

Image

192 hours

Image
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