Global model runs discussion

[rainstorm]

that would be an ominous pattern.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Frankly I'm not so sure it matters how many waves Africa cranks out this year. I feel if conditions across the vast majority of the North Atlantic Basin remain as hostile (dry stable air & wind shear predominating) as they have thus far, for the rest of the seaon, then it will be very difficult for anything of substance to form.
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[HurricaneFan]

There was a discussion posted in the 97L thread about it missing the the Lesser Antilles,but the Wave behind it(on the West coast of Africa now) could potentially move into the Lesser Antilles after developing some time next week(per the GFS and Euro).
Is the same Ridge that 97L is expected to go round its western edge expected to steer this Wave all the way to the Lesser Antilles?And how much further after the Lesser Antilles?
Are any other models picking up on this track besides the GFS and Euro?
And are they showing that the pattern will hold for the Tropical Waves behind it?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Pretty scary the 00Z GFS run for us in the islands and for many in the east coast...The good news is that it is in the long range. We will continue to monitor the next GFS as well as Euro runs to see if the trend continues..

Just take a look
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[cycloneye]

The 00z ECMWF (EURO) tracks thru the Northern Leewards and then curves to the NW at the end of run.

[BobHarlem]

Surprised no one even mentioned what happens around hour 336 of the GFS.

[BatzVI]

Cyclone....how much weight do you put into that model? I know we have to watch it since Isaac has all the attention right now...it's just I'm supposed to go to South Florida over Labor Day weekend...Thanks for your input...unfortunately I'm not able to open some of the model info

[cycloneye]

Cyclone....how much weight do you put into that model? I know we have to watch it since Isaac has all the attention right now...it's just I'm supposed to go to South Florida over Labor Day weekend...Thanks for your input...unfortunately I'm not able to open some of the model info

Hi my friend. Is not only the EURO but GFS also develops this. Both are the most reliable global models and because of that,we have to pay close attention.

[RL3AO]

Cyclone....how much weight do you put into that model? I know we have to watch it since Isaac has all the attention right now...it's just I'm supposed to go to South Florida over Labor Day weekend...Thanks for your input...unfortunately I'm not able to open some of the model info

The Euro is statistically the best model in the world right now.

Still, what any model says after 7 days really doesn't mean a whole lot. Those long range model outputs are really only good for broad forecasts, not something specific like a tropical cyclone forecast.

[rainstorm]

basically, i would say a storm is likely to be in the sw atlantic 8 days from now. what it does from there is guesswork.

[BatzVI]

I understand that....but we won't get any info down here on TWC until it turns into something...this is our best source of info until Isaac is over...best to have an idea of what could be possible so that we are prepared here....though most of us here have been through it many times and know the drill...unfortunately I've seen the words "big one" and that sends chills up my spine after going through Marilyn....just trying to keep on top of it....

[cycloneye]

I understand that....but we won't get any info down here on TWC until it turns into something...this is our best source of info until Isaac is over...best to have an idea of what could be possible so that we are prepared here....though most of us here have been through it many times and know the drill...unfortunately I've seen the words "big one" and that sends chills up my spine after going through Marilyn....just trying to keep on top of it....

If TWC doesn't mention anything Storm2k will,so keep in touch here and you will get all the information.

[BatzVI]

Posted storm2k's site on my Facebook page so we have an alternate site for info....shame we get forgotten about when the mainland is threatened..of course at this point it isn't even an invest so it's understandable...

[cycloneye]

Another run by GFS (12z) that develops wave and moves it across Lesser Antilles. At long range,it tracks very close to the New England coast.

168 hours.



In 192 hours is approaching Puerto Rico.



12z GFS Loop

[rainstorm]

further east but too far out for details.

[HurricaneFan]

There seems to be some consistantcy developing between the GFS and EURO in terms of track(although that can change a lot still).
How strong are these two models predicting this will get before reaching the Lesser Antilles?
And what are the other models saying in terms of track and intensity?Are they agreeing with the GFS and EURO?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The latest NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecasts product also develops the system and moves it toward the Caribbean.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_ma ... d#contents

[cycloneye]

The 12z Euro goes well away from the Leewards and Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

Yikes,over Puerto Rico on the 18z GFS run. The intensity over PR is at 997mbs.

[HurricaneFan]

[quote="cycloneye"]Yikes,over Puerto Rico on the 18z GFS run. The intensity over PR is at 997mbs.

How much does 997mb translate to on the GFS long range?
And why did the 12Z Euro move it so far out compared to previous runs?