Global model runs discussion

[wxman57]

The 12z ECMWF has a storm moving torwards the Louisiana coast in 120 hours. GFS has also a low in BOC at that timeframe.

http://oi49.tinypic.com/9u24p3.jpg

It doesn't look tropical in nature, it might be associated with a front...maybe it's subtropical.

Definitely not tropical - it's a frontal wave/low that looks a bit over-done. Westerly winds aloft are forecast to be up to 90 kts along the TX/LA coasts at the time of that map.

[Kingarabian]

Both the GFS and Euro still show some kind of homebrew storm forming within 100Hrs... GFS has a LA landfall and the Euro has a Texas landfall.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Both the GFS and Euro still show some kind of homebrew storm forming within 100Hrs... GFS has a LA landfall and the Euro has a Texas landfall.

It's not tropical.

[LaBreeze]

I know that it's not tropical, but I thought that I heard the Weather Channel mention something about the possibility of "something tropical" out of this. I may have misunderstood - just wondering if anyone else caught it. I know that they showed a Low in the NW GOM with a question mark next to it.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I heard that to on the Weather Channel. Might be a little hype. Since it pretty much died in the tropics. Or just wait and see if it does.

[Dean4Storms]

There is a chance albeit small that it could become Sub-Tropical in nature, you can never completely write off a Low from transitioning into a tropical entity this time of year over the Gulf. I'll bet anyone it gets monitored by the NHC and mentioned in TWO's.

[wxman57]

Nothing tropical out of this. It's a wave forming on a cold front beneath VERY strong upper-level winds. Basically, a typical west Gulf low that we see quite often during the winter months. As it will never be separated from the cold front, it won't become a tropical or subtropical storm. It'll be a big rainmaker from west Texas through La/MS/AL through early next week. NW wind 20-30 kts in its wake offshore (behind the front).

The place to look for any possible "O" storm will be in the far east Atlantic south of where Nadine is now. Could see another TS form out there next week. Track would be similar to Nadine. No threat to the Caribbean or the U.S.

[SoupBone]

Nothing tropical out of this. It's a wave forming on a cold front beneath VERY strong upper-level winds. Basically, a typical west Gulf low that we see quite often during the winter months. As it will never be separated from the cold front, it won't become a tropical or subtropical storm. It'll be a big rainmaker from west Texas through La/MS/AL through early next week. NW wind 20-30 kts in its wake offshore (behind the front).

The place to look for any possible "O" storm will be in the far east Atlantic south of where Nadine is now. Could see another TS form out there next week. Track would be similar to Nadine. No threat to the Caribbean or the U.S.

I used to value your opinion, but since reading your winter forecasts, hopes, and dreams, I can no longer respect it anymore.

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean action soon? HPC discussion.

MID/UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS YUCATAN/WESTERN CUBA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE
CYCLE. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS DEVELOPING A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODELS SHOW BROAD YET WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER IN THE CYCLE.
IN THE MEAN TIME...BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...MODELS CONTINUE CONFIDENT ABOUT
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD ACROSS
JAMAICA/HISPANIOLA/EASTERN CUBA. FURTHERMORE...INFLOW OF CYCLONIC
VORTICITY WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=fxca20

[floridasun78]

LATER IN THE CYCLE.???? when do start and end cycle

[floridasun78]

i check models their no support for nw carribbean

[ConvergenceZone]

Not quite ready to put a fork in the season yet, but it's getting close.....

[MWatkins]

Chances are pretty good that whatever develops in the Gulf won't make it to tropical status, but I respect the uncertainty surrounding the tropics enough to not completely rule it out.

Look at Hurricane Nadine. Tropical to subtropical (hardly ever happens) back to tropical (been observed less than a handful of times in the Atlantic ever). Now it's a hurricane again under 20 knots of shear.

Nothing can be ruled out probabilistically.

MW

[MWatkins]

Interesting that convective activity across the Atlantic basin is on the up-swing. Nadine is back to a hurricane and looking even better organized than before, and the ITCZ is coming alive somewhat.

I wonder if the models will start spinning up some storms in the coming days now that the environment is trending toward more favorable. My hunch is we're seeing the very beginning of another burst-o-activity.

MW

[brunota2003]

Well, September is about to end...and we usually always see a fall off in activity from the 15th through the 1st, give or take.

[Sanibel]

Maybe this slight uptick will allow the Caribbean convection to gel.


Edit: There's an unseasonable West Caribbean ULL that even shows up on AVN. No chance.

[Sanibel]

Hmm, something did gel down there by Jamaica.

[SootyTern]

Been watching that area festering for a couple days now; it's looking interesting tonight on the water vapor loop, esp. SW of Jamaica. Is anything going to come of it?

[blp]

18z GFS still not showing much in the long range. I think a lot has to do with the mjo pulse staying in the WPAC. ECMWF and GFS now show the possibility of the mjo showing up in two weeks.

ECMWF


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GFS


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[cycloneye]

12z GFS run on long range has a SW Caribbean area but we will see how that goes in next runs as in the past,the model has shown something to then not have it on next run.