Global model runs discussion

[CrazyC83]

With that pattern, any SW Caribbean storm would be stuck there and just move into Central America?

[Frank2]

Could be - the SW Caribbean season is almost year round - they've had development down there even in February...

[somethingfunny]

12z GFS is again with a SW Caribbean development on long range. If the ECMWF shows this when it is at 240 hours,then it would be credible.

[timg]http://oi50.tinypic.com/1js2gl.jpg[/timg]

[StormTracker]

Is that an "L" i see down there in the same area that the GFS is talking about?

[gatorcane]

I think everybody needs a break...but the SW Caribbean is favorable year round as Frank mentions, so you never know.

and technically hurricane season is not over until Nov 30th in the Atlantic basin.

[CrazyC83]

I'd laugh if the most intense storm of the year happened in November, when did that last happen?

[galaxy401]

I'd laugh if the most intense storm of the year happened in November, when did that last happen?

Michelle from 2001 I believe. Formed in October but reached its peak in November.

[Hurricane Alexis]

I'd laugh if the most intense storm of the year happened in November, when did that last happen?

I think Kate from 1985 was the strongest hurricane to make landfall in November, or the second strongest.

[HurrMark]

Kate was the strongest in the US...there were other storms that were stronger, like Lenny. I think Gordon in 1994 was the last landfalling TS in the US (Ida became extratropical just before landfall, I believe...)

[CrazyC83]

Kate was the strongest in the US...there were other storms that were stronger, like Lenny. I think Gordon in 1994 was the last landfalling TS in the US (Ida became extratropical just before landfall, I believe...)

Correct, Ida was post-tropical at landfall.

[CourierPR]

Is this thread for discussion of past storms?

[cycloneye]

Going back to the topic,GFS abandoned the SW Caribbean development as it now does so in EPAC.

[CrazyC83]

Going back to the topic,GFS abandoned the SW Caribbean development as it now does so in EPAC.

Sergio perhaps? This has to be the first time BOTH Atlantic and EPAC made it this deep in the alphabet.

[HurrMark]

In 2005, the E-Pac made it to 'O' for 'Otis', but yeah, I don't think both basins ever got to at least 'S' in the same year.

[Hurricanehink]

In 2005, the E-Pac made it to 'O' for 'Otis', but yeah, I don't think both basins ever got to at least 'S' in the same year.

In 2008 they both got to "P", so this is unusual. The combined activity is 36 storms, which is the highest except for 2005.

[Kingarabian]

I have a feeling that the 2012 Hurricane season will go beyond November.

[cycloneye]

Maybe something at least subtropical between Bermuda and U.S East coast?

This is the 12z ECMWF at 216 hours and in 240 hours.

[cycloneye]

GFS has in less timeframe (96 hours) a possible subtropical system near Bermuda and moving to the NE.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/96.html

[somethingfunny]

GFS has in less timeframe (96 hours) a possible subtropical system near Bermuda and moving to the NE.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/96.html

I like that track. It's a much better track!

[cycloneye]

GFS contnues with future Valerie but if it develops, will not last too long as it moves NE out to sea.

84 hours.