Global model runs discussion

[weatherwindow]

The models have been showing a low pressure in the GOM moving NE towards Florida Penninsula for the past few runs. ECMWF is also showing at day 10. I think this is a non-tropical low but you never know if mother nature surprises us with a semi warm core

Good catch, Luis.....on the 12Z euro, a broad low form just west of Campeche(Yucatan) at about hr 144. At first blush, it appears to form south of the strongest westerlies and is somewhat protected. By hour 192, the NE motion begins bringing whatever remains to SFL at 240hrs....Well at least its something to watch in the vast wasteland that is world-wide tropical cyclongenesis:)

[boca]

I ned to link to the euro,I lost it somehow.

[cycloneye]

I ned to link to the euro,I lost it somehow.

Here is the main Euro site.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 3031612!!/

Other sites that have the Euro:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... IV=0&RES=0

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

[Dean4Storms]

I couldn't see any chance of anything becoming tropical with the screaming UL winds.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Are the models still showing that low?

[cycloneye]

Are the models still showing that low?

Models still have it but in recent runs they have a weak low in GOM that gets cranking bigtime after it crosses the Florida Penninsula and goes out to sea but is non-tropical.

[cycloneye]

Things are getting interesting in the model world after the Canadian upgrade and the soon to upgrade GFS. (April 2014)

The expectations have increased for the next GFS/GEFS implementation next April (2014). A semi-Lagrangian T1500 GFS (13 km) and T574 GEFS is likely, and physics/analysis changes will also be a part of the implementation. Also, keep an eye on the recently updated Canadian model; statistics for the deterministic model are looking better.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/synergy/03-04-13_final.htm

[Kingarabian]

Sorry I'm late to the party, but who was the Model Wars winner last season?

[cycloneye]

Sorry I'm late to the party, but who was the Model Wars winner last season?

The Euro by far. But this year it will have good competition from the Canadian that has been upgraded. GFS will once again be upgraded in April of 2014. We will see what happens in this war.

[Kingarabian]

I thought the GFS did well early on last season..

[cycloneye]

I thought the GFS did well early on last season..

Here is the evidence that ECMWF is leading among the models for the past few years. It will be interesting to see how CMC performs this season after the big upgrade.

Data from the past 5 years.



Source at link below

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

[cycloneye]

Here is the 2012 verification of the models made by NHC. Kingarabian,you were right about GFS doing a good job but Euro also was very good as they say in the report. CMC was among the worse but with the upgrade it had in the past weeks,let's see how it performs in 2013. GFS is identified at report as GFS1 and Euro as EXMI.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pd ... n_2012.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Here is the 2012 verification of the models made by NHC. Kingarabian,you were right about GFS doing a good job but Euro also was very good as they say in the report. CMC was among the worse but with the upgrade it had in the past weeks,let's see how it performs in 2013. GFS is identified at report as GFS1 and Euro as EXMI.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pd ... n_2012.pdf

Thanks for link!

[NDG]

The GFS did very well early on the season, beating the Euro, IMO, when it came to TS Debby and Hurricane Isaac.
Towards the end of the season is when it started loosing credibility.

[NDG]

Here is the 2012 verification of the models made by NHC. Kingarabian,you were right about GFS doing a good job but Euro also was very good as they say in the report. CMC was among the worse but with the upgrade it had in the past weeks,let's see how it performs in 2013. GFS is identified at report as GFS1 and Euro as EXMI.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pd ... n_2012.pdf

When it came to track verification in the Atlantic basin, the GFSI did better within 96 hrs than the ECMWF, according to this chart. HWFR continued with its horrible performance.
Very interesting that the FSU Super Ensemble concensus model did so well, I am sure all eyes will be on them this year. Thanks for the link btw, I was aware that this report was out already.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 2012 verification of the models made by NHC. Kingarabian,you were right about GFS doing a good job but Euro also was very good as they say in the report. CMC was among the worse but with the upgrade it had in the past weeks,let's see how it performs in 2013. GFS is identified at report as GFS1 and Euro as EXMI.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pd ... n_2012.pdf

When it came to track verification in the Atlantic basin, the GFSI did better within 96 hrs than the ECMWF, according to this chart. HWFR continued with its horrible performance.
Very interesting that the FSU Super Ensemble concensus model did so well, I am sure all eyes will be on them this year. Thanks for the link btw, I was aware that this report was out already.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 6b9e3e.png

Dont discount the CMC with the upgrade. Let' see how it does.

[cycloneye]

The CMC has been showing a low off the East Coast of U.S for the past runs. Here is the 12z run that again has it. But the question is semi warm core or not. This model thinks it may be however I don't think it will be but you never know what mother nature has instored.

[chaser1]

Well, with the Global Model thread having been revived, I decided to take a look at the Atlantic GFS long range for the first time - in a long time.

Too early to take all too much from it, especially given the limited accuracy the farther out one looks. I did however notice some nuances I found a bit interesting.

With a bit more interest on whats going on "upstairs", I was a little surprised at the lack of any TUTT off the Eastern U.S. seaboard. In fact, toward the end of the long range cycle there seemed to be fairly pronounced ridging off the S.E. US in place of what seems to be home of the east coast trough. Also interesting was the pronounced ridging in the deeper tropics from Africa and westward, that was appearing to take shape at the 200mb level toward the end of the long range cycle. To me it appeared that the sub-tropical jet was getting "shunted" a bit farther north, and nearly as far west as Yucatan towards the 8-10 day cycle.

As a glance it means little. I will be a bit more curious however if in two week there is decent upper level ridging from the Caribbean eastward throughout the Atlantic. That, along with upper level ridging over or just east of the S.E. US with little evidence of a TUTT off the Southeastern Seaboard. Such conditions would be strange, unless of course we were in July. So, unlikely that such upper level conditions will start manifesting themselves this early "pre-season", will be interested to just look and see what, (if any) mid to upper level conditions will begin to show their future tendencies. It will be interesting to see how things begin to take shape, such as the long wave pattern, over-all heights throughout the Atlantic, and ultimately some kind of "early season tip-off" as to what any early season steering and shear conditions might look like.

[Kingarabian]

Since it got updated, the CMC is busy predicting phantom storms in the EPac and Atlantic...

[NDG]

Hmm, Euro shows at least two runs in a row of surface pressures lowering in the NW Caribbean in its long range forecast due to a cut off UL trough in that area.