Global model runs discussion

[N2FSU]

Another view of 12Z GFS at 264hr:

[N2FSU]

Full resolution version shows 982mb storm near Florida Panhandle at 264hr (La-La Land)

[cycloneye]

The 72 hour TAFB forecast puts wave that may trigger development over the Lesser Antilles.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF continues to

[Alyono]

ECMWF continues to

I fail to understand why ANYONE even looks at the EC operational for TC genesis in the deep tropics

Hasn't it busted enough to know it is a bigger joke than the Canadian in terms of genesis prediction?

[Hurricaneman]

ECMWF continues to

the Euro tends to be the last model to pick up on any development, especially if theres no current surface low at the time of initialization, the model to look at to see if there is a possibility of tropical development tends to be the GFS especially before truncation

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

ECMWF continues to

I fail to understand why ANYONE even looks at the EC operational for TC genesis in the deep tropics

Hasn't it busted enough to know it is a bigger joke than the Canadian in terms of genesis prediction?

^ This.

I don't even look at the ECMWF until after a storm has formed. It's missed every cyclone in every basin this year.

[somethingfunny]

This is also at the extreme end of the ECMWF's forecast range. Give it a few days and if it's still showing nothing, then take that absence into more serious consideration.

[floridasun78]

The 72 hour TAFB forecast puts wave that may trigger development over the Lesser Antilles.
http://oi40.tinypic.com/2u8uoaq.jpg

were that wave that map show be Lesser Antilles area in 72 hours i dont see wave east of Lesser Antilles?

[Hurricaneman]

The 72 hour TAFB forecast puts wave that may trigger development over the Lesser Antilles.

http://oi40.tinypic.com/2u8uoaq.jpg

were that wave that map show be Lesser Antilles area in 72 hours i dont see wave east of Lesser Antilles?

its there, just has very little convection at the moment

[cycloneye]

That wave is there (44W) as of this post. Saved image.

[NDG]

I was hopping to have a nice relaxing weekend from model watching before things pick up in July, but I see that King GFS is at it again, lol.

So I guess that the TW to watch is the one near 40-45W that the GFS develops next week in the Caribbean.

[floridasun78]

it look this will be busy season as forcast by noaa and alot it not waiting for aug we ready have a and b system it only june

[hurricanekid416]

If the gfs pans out then this season will eerily start like the 2005

[floridasun78]

If the gfs pans out then this season will eerily start like the 2005

was in 2005 that we have strong hurr in early july by cayman islands?

[SouthFloridian92]

Yes, that was Hurricane Dennis.

I remember that hurricane was supposed to make a direct hit at my town as a category 5. Everyone panicked, packed up their things and headed up to the mainland (or they tried). A friend of my mother's had to wait 15 hours in traffic to get out of the Keys. The storm ended up changing its mind, staying to the south of us and weakened to a category 1.

[Andrew92]

The following post in this forum is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If the gfs pans out then this season will eerily start like the 2005

I hate to say it, but I agree. I don't think the activity trend will last like it did in 2005, specifically we probably won't have five more storms in July to get to Gabrielle, and then the ball just keeps rolling from there through the peak and onward. However, Andrea was somewhat similar to Arlene, and Barry very similar to Bret.

I have mentioned it once or twice in a couple other threads, but I am having this late nagging feeling that a storm like Bill in 2003 or Cindy from (you guess it) 2005 might occur around the end of June or first week of July, very close to the timing of those two storms. And here we are now with some long-range model support supporting this idea. I'm not sure that we'll get a hurricane out of this, but it also wouldn't surprise me. Bill and Cindy had about 36-48 hours or so each in the Gulf of Mexico. Bill got to 60 mph, while Cindy mustered becoming a minimal hurricane (though was operationally assessed at 70 mph, it took the final report to determine the hurricane portion).

According to the latest GFS run I am seeing, this system could be entering the Gulf of Mexico by way of the Yucatan Channel on June 29, after perhaps forming 24 to 48 hours earlier. Unlike Bill and Cindy, this system may also not run into the Yucatan Peninsula, which undoubtedly hindered intensification of those two storms, though it could perhaps clip the far northeast corner which may temporarily stall intensification. Therefore, there is a strong possibility of a tropical storm coming into the Gulf of Mexico on that date if this run verifies, and not merely a tropical depression like Bill and Cindy were still working through. After that, July 1, or 48 hours later, is looking like a possible landfall date along the Gulf Coast somewhere, probably the central part. As mentioned, Bill and Cindy were not yet named by the time they reached the Gulf as they were still developing depressions, and both spent 36-48 hours over that body of water. Bill went from 25 to 60 mph, while Cindy went from 30 to 75 in that timespan. This would mean about 35-45 mph of intensification would seem reasonable for this supposed system.

Suffice it to say, I hope this assessment is dead wrong. I would like to see no such system, period. But if it must happen, I hope it is, like Bill and Cindy, at most a developing depression. Better would be like Debby or Andrea, with no circulation until it is further north. But it is hard to forget how accurate the GFS was last year with things like this, and if we have a tropical storm coming into the Gulf from the Channel with the same amount of time over water, which looks quite possible, I am going to be pretty concerned. But if it comes from the Peninsula, a hurricane seems a bit less likely - though Cindy showed it can be done. Then again, it was also 2005.

-Andrew92

[Hurricaneman]

the 18zGFS buries it in the Yucatan, as of 192 heading towards the BOC, sends it into northern Mexico 100 miles south of Texas so while theres consistency in developing it theres no consistency on where its going

[sunnyday]

I have been hearing of the possibility/probability of a busy hurricane season this year, but those predictions are fairly common on TV news this time of year every year. However, what I view as more reliable sources seem to be a little nervous about the predictions coming true this season. Should we be very concerned?
Would someone please explain in layman's terms why you feel this season is likely to shape up as an active one? Thank you for your time.

[Hurricaneman]

I have been hearing of the possibility/probability of a busy hurricane season this year, but those predictions are fairly common on TV news this time of year every year. However, what I view as more reliable sources seem to be a little nervous about the predictions coming true this season. Should we be very concerned?
Would someone please explain in layman's terms why you feel this season is likely to shape up as an active one? Thank you for your time.

I'll put it this way I would say be vigilant but no reason for concern if you know what to do to prepare for a hurricane and I'm sure there will be some landfalling hurricanes this year