Global model runs discussion

[xcool22]

18z runs have the oldest data

[Ntxw]

I have been hearing of the possibility/probability of a busy hurricane season this year, but those predictions are fairly common on TV news this time of year every year. However, what I view as more reliable sources seem to be a little nervous about the predictions coming true this season. Should we be very concerned?
Would someone please explain in layman's terms why you feel this season is likely to shape up as an active one? Thank you for your time.

It's a neutral year and not close to El Nino. People automatically connect neutral years to 2005 for whatever reason. If it's not 2005 it's 2004. But some of the experts do see an active season so we tend to take their word for it because well they simply know much better than us! SST's around the globe don't resemble 2005 really that well. I actually like 2008 better, but that's just me.

[sunnyday]

Thank you, Hurricaneman. Your advice is just what we always do.

[sunnyday]

I appreciate your time, Ntxw.

[N2FSU]

18Z GFS; 228hr

[N2FSU]

18Z GFS long range sends it into Mexico. Staying consistent though with development in SW Caribbean.

[ROCK]

OZ GFS has nada in the long range for now. I suspect another few weeks before our next invest....however I said that before and we got Barry...

[Alyono]

Not accurate Rock

0Z GFS is still developing this. However, it gets buried in the southern BOC and just isn't any stronger than a depression

[Torgo]

Ridging is quite a bit stronger than the 12z run, which winds up shoving the disturbance into Belize before it can get going, instead of allowing it to move north. At 216 hours, the trough over the great lakes is not as deep, which winds up creating less of a weakness. Still too long a way's out to know for certain how the trough is going to act.

[weatherwindow]

Good morning, Luis et al...With all the myriad weaknesses of all ultra long range modelling, their output has no forecast value. However, they are certainly stir interest and perhaps have some value in foreseeing trends in convection, steering etc. I will post the output of CFSv2 twice weekly displaying Thurs 00Z and Tues 00Z. The time frame begins as the GFS ends(at approx 16 days) and runs to 45 days. It is run 4x daily by NCEP. Something to peruse when short on invests . Some snippets from the Thursday 00Z: As suggested by many global models, the MJO appearing to be impacting the GOM/West Carib during the 2nd and 3rd weeks of July. Both basins are very convectively active with a series of lows and widespread troughiness. A broad low forms on 7/12 in the sw Atlantic off the Fla/Ga coasts, appears to shear out by the 15th. A Cape Verde system enters the northeastern Carib on 7/19, opening to a wave crossing the Greater Antilles, restrenghtens in the GOM and landfalls northwest Fla on 7/23. A second Cape Verde system enters the Windward Islands on 7/26, opens to a wave in the central Carib. Broad low pressure persists in the sw Carib thru 8/4. Persistent ridging dominates the western Atlantic and eastern seaboard thru most of July thru August 4th. To again stress, modelling beyond 240 hours has no forecast value. Greetings from Key West...Rich

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... RES=0&WMO=

[gatorcane]

Regarding the Atlantic wave at around 10N, 40W some folks are discussing, it looks like models are bringing it all the way into the Western Caribbean for next weekend where alot of convection will be it looks like. This wave just might spark something there so something to watch. Here is the 06Z GFS at 168 hours with the tropical wave in the Western Caribbean:

[Javlin]

I have been hearing of the possibility/probability of a busy hurricane season this year, but those predictions are fairly common on TV news this time of year every year. However, what I view as more reliable sources seem to be a little nervous about the predictions coming true this season. Should we be very concerned?
Would someone please explain in layman's terms why you feel this season is likely to shape up as an active one? Thank you for your time.

It's a neutral year and not close to El Nino. People automatically connect neutral years to 2005 for whatever reason. If it's not 2005 it's 2004. But some of the experts do see an active season so we tend to take their word for it because well they simply know much better than us! SST's around the globe don't resemble 2005 really that well. I actually like 2008 better, but that's just me.

Might just be recent memory but according to: http://coaps.fsu.edu/jma 2003-2005 were neutral.

and http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/produ ... ation.html neutral

[Alyono]

12Z GFS buries this in Central America

Maybe we will head into a quiet period

[TheStormExpert]

The way I'm looking at this is. The GFS wants to develop something in the Medium/Long range which of course kind of means very little until its more so in the Short range. The big question is where would it go according to the GFS which is basically the only model showing this development. So overall there is potential development in the Western Caribbean over the next 2 weeks. Especially with the favored MJO arriving.

[N2FSU]

12Z GFS buries this in Central America

Maybe we will head into a quiet period

Looks like this:
12Z GFS; 192hr

[CourierPR]

Met. Joe Bastardi has said to look for development during the first two weeks of july with the arrival of the MJO. He sees the possibility of several storms forming.

[sunnyday]

Did Joe B. mention specifically where he thought storms might form?

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC loop not showing much on Atlantic side but the EPAC is looking active:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[N2FSU]

18Z GFS still not showing a storm in the Gulf like earlier runs, but is showing disturbed weather and low pressures in Carribean in about a week.

Here is a look at next Sunday, June 30:

[Cyclenall]

18Z GFS still not showing a storm in the Gulf like earlier runs, but is showing disturbed weather and low pressures in Carribean in about a week.

Here is a look at next Sunday, June 30:

It says 12z on that one, the 18z one shows at 300 hours a low in the BOC and at 384 hours a TD or weak TS near the Cape Verde Islands...first one? July 8th.