Global model runs discussion

[floridasun78]

look at sw Caribbean their spin with any storm with it let see as move more west it start getting storms http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ir4.html

[N2FSU]

I know it's the CMC, so don't shoot the messenger! It's certainly staying consistent (which means nothing if it's wrong).

00Z CMC; 120hr. Early stages of development near western Cuba.

[N2FSU]

00Z CMC; 144hr

[N2FSU]

00Z CMC; 156hr

[N2FSU]

00Z CMC; 162hr. Stays with a Florida Panhandle landfall.

[N2FSU]

For comparison sake, here is the 06Z GFS at 156hr, same time as the last CMC I just posted (18Z Tuesday July 2).

[N2FSU]

00Z Euro; 168hr (00Z July 3)

[Alyono]

EC ensemble still has about the same probs as of yesterday afternoon

[N2FSU]

EC ensemble still has about the same probs as of yesterday afternoon

Was that about 50%?

[Alyono]

EC ensemble still has about the same probs as of yesterday afternoon

Was that about 50%?

yep

[wxman57]

I still don't buy the Canadian. Consensus is still for a weaker system that forms in the BoC and tracks west into Mexico. Looks reasonable for next week's potential system.

[catskillfire51]

the 06z GFS has a very weak low going across the northern caribbean islands around the same time frame as the CMC. but still forms the weak storm in the boc as well.

[Rgv20]

GFS Ensembles continue to show a high chance of TC Formation in the BOC in the 5 to 10 day range....Most of the ensemble show the same faith as Barry but maybe a tad more north. Hopefully this tropical air mass can sneak its way up to South Texas and bring us some much needed Rain


0zGFS Ensembles



6zGFS Ensembles

[NDG]

I still think that if anything forms in the BOC it will track north towards TX, there is nothing to push it west towards MX.
Last night's Canadian reminds me of its old self, lol.

[Ntxw]

I still think that if anything forms in the BOC it will track north towards TX, there is nothing to push it west towards MX.
Last night's Canadian reminds me of its old self, lol.

I agree with your thinking. The continental subtropical ridge is just too far West/NW to block anything down there. I wouldn't rule out a central gulf coast potentially entirely since it could very well ride the weak frontal boundary but generally agree the weakness between the ridge and trough is a good magnet which is up the TX or SW LA coast. More east than west if it forms over the Yucatan straight vs BOC.

[OuterBanker]

I’ll have to agree with wxman on the Canadian. My Canadian Coup posting a while back was half in jest. We all know that the CMC spins so many spurious storms that we would ask what happens after the Greek alphabet. I’m asking myself today is that not a repost of Andrea on the latest Canadian?

Personally, until the Euro shows something I don’t even pay attention. GFS long term is still questionable.

Btw, although we have never and probably will never have to answer this question. What does happen after the Greek alphabet?

[cycloneye]

We have to get a trigger for cyclogenesis to start something. It could be from Tropical Wave now in Eastern Caribbean,from Monsoon Trough or a combination by both features. We will know in the next 3-4 days if something gets going in BOC or NW Caribbean.

[wxman57]

...Btw, although we have never and probably will never have to answer this question. What does happen after the Greek alphabet?

We begin to rebuild.

[Portastorm]

I still think that if anything forms in the BOC it will track north towards TX, there is nothing to push it west towards MX.
Last night's Canadian reminds me of its old self, lol.

I agree with your thinking. The continental subtropical ridge is just too far West/NW to block anything down there. I wouldn't rule out a central gulf coast potentially entirely since it could very well ride the weak frontal boundary but generally agree the weakness between the ridge and trough is a good magnet which is up the TX or SW LA coast. More east than west if it forms over the Yucatan straight vs BOC.

The last few European runs have shown significant troughing developing of Texas by next week. Should that verify, it would seem such a large area of lower pressures would bring any disturbance more poleward. But I'm sure wxman57 has his reasons for thinking it stays south and he gets paid for his reasons ... I don't!

[Javlin]

...Btw, although we have never and probably will never have to answer this question. What does happen after the Greek alphabet?

We begin to rebuild.

Thats funny