Global model runs discussion

[floridasun78]

We have been discussing about future scenarios in the BOC / Caribbean and maybe the MDR but guess what folks,we may have another area to watch in coming days and that is in the Subtropical Atlantic. Here is Levi Cowan Tweet about this.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1h
Interesting trough-split SE of Bermuda will have to be watched as it comes west towards Bahamas this weekend.

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BODW-AOCcAAMYNc.png:large

it area now ne of Bermuda that suppose move sw round high pressure

[boca]

Its just an ULL but yes it has trro be watched especially when it moves over warmer waters.

[ronjon]

Well for entertainment purposes, here is the 00z CMC with its hurricane in the GOM from the subtropical Atlantic wave.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013070100/gem_mslp_wind_watl.html

[N2FSU]

Well for entertainment purposes, here is the 00z CMC with its hurricane in the GOM from the subtropical Atlantic wave.

Here are the early stages of development for that on the CMC at 102hr:

[N2FSU]

CMC 168hr:

[N2FSU]

CMC 180hr:

[N2FSU]

CMC 204hr:

[N2FSU]

CMC 222hr:

[cycloneye]

I suppose that CMC scenario begins with the trough split that may occur in the Western Atlantic in the next few days. (If it happens at all)

[Blown Away]

Do we now have to pay for model info from Allan Huffman's site??

[GCANE]

CMC 850mb Theta-E forecast looks interesting.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


Seems that the system has some sort of feedback from the NE CONUS.

Unstable, boundary-layer air being developed over land, due to daytime heating, seems to be rotating into it.

Need to keep an eye on MIMIC-TPW to see how this evolves.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html


Shear forecast to be low in the Bahamas and then into the GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[NDG]

Had the GEM/CMC's scenario of the ULL becoming a hurricane would had been coming from the GFS and or ECMWF it would be a little more believable. The ULL will be rotating around the big Atlantic ridge, I have not seen one of these work itself down to the surface in the middle of the summer in a long time, lol.

[gatorcane]

The CMC prediction of this ULL becoming a hurricane and heading toward Florida and the GOM is highly suspect, considering it just busted terribly on it's last GOM hurricane that was supposed to have formed already. As NDG points out, hard to go against the reliable GFS and ECMWF which show nothing coming of this ULL and no system for Florida or the GOM.

[ROCK]

Do we now have to pay for model info from Allan Huffman's site??

yes, guess he figured you could make a little money...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

its showing a direct hit on my house. Going out to prep right now. Of course have to finish cleaning up from this past phantom cmc storm that just came through as well.

[floridasun78]

i dont think Levi's would talk about it if was no chance of system form .look like he saw some thing caught his eye with ull and cmc now it waiting game

[tolakram]

I wonder if this year will mark the return of the CMC hitting New Orleans at least once a week?

[Pearl River]

My luck it could happen. My son has freshman orientation at Louisiana-Lafayette those 2 days.

[supercane4867]

12z CMC

78HR TS makes landfall on gulf coast

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS and CMC both bring the Atlantic low SW into the Gulf

12Z GFS



12Z CMC