Global model runs discussion

[BigB0882]

So now we have support from the GFS. Getting interesting...

I know CMC is often bullish on strength, what does 991 mb typically translate to?

[SouthFloridian92]

Usually high end tropical storm with 65 mph winds.

[BigB0882]

Well considering that the CMC keeps it over water, there must be something keeping it in check. I guess shear will be high or something. A path like that could easily result in a major other times of the year.

[gatorcane]

Here is the 12Z GFS precip_12 really showing nothing at the surface at all anywhere in the Atlantic through 384 hours when I loop the run. Maybe I am missing something Ivanhater or are you talking about the GFS supporting a mid/upper-level feature moving into Florida then the GOM?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_are ... precip_p12

[Ivanhater]

Here is the 12Z GFS precip_12 really showing nothing at the surface at all anywhere in the Atlantic through 384 hours when I loop the run. Maybe I am missing something Ivanhater or are you talking about the GFS supporting a mid/upper-level feature moving into Florida then the GOM?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_are ... precip_p12

yes, the 12z GFS 500mb chart is what I posted. The feature is present on the GFS that the CMC is showing so it is something to watch...

[cycloneye]

Two new Tweets by Levi Cowan about the possible trough split.


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 8m
A tropical wave moving under an intense mid-upper low over 28C water is an unstable situation. GFS shows stacked vort pic.twitter.com/x3DUdyZbAM


Levi Cowan Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 11m
In 4-5 days trough-split mid-lvl piece moves N. of Antilles. Tropical wave from the east has chance to get involved. pic.twitter.com/t4P3BzeNXC





https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan is very focused on this scenario. Here are yet two more tweets.


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 5m
Wave can either catch up to ULL and take over and develop, or it could fail to catch up but be close enough to interfere w/ incipient vortex

Levi Cowan Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 6m
GFS shows tropical wave catching up to upper low. CMC says it won't. This will be key player. Wave can instigate development or hinder it

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro at 144 hours showing the wave moving SW toward Florida and the Gulf

[floridasun78]

12z Euro at 144 hours showing the wave moving SW toward Florida and the Gulf

ok maybe euro joining cmc now we maybe catching some thing like Levi Cowan saw sunday on cmc

[ROCK]

NOGAPS see something coming off the Yucatan and smashing the Upper Texas Coast...but when does the NOGAPS NOT see something..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[floridasun78]

NOGAPS see something coming off the Yucatan and smashing the Upper Texas Coast...but when does the NOGAPS NOT see something..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

NAVGEM show area coming toward fl too that be three Models

[floridasun78]

Euro ,cmc , NAVGEM

[cycloneye]

Euro ,cmc , NAVGEM

Also GFS but none develop.

[Hurricaneman]

trough splits in the area of bermuda have potential,Bob in 1991, Edouard in 2002 and Gaston in 2004 all formed in this fashion so this definately needs to be monitored in the coming days with all the model support its getting

[TheStormExpert]

This tropical development potential seems more likely now that we are in July. Environmental conditions seem to be ok for potential development.

[Hurricaneman]

Out of all the storms I mentioned above I think the closest analog to what I think is going to happen with this trough split is Edouard in 2002 so we need to watch further runs to see what the evolution of this possible system is

[NDG]

So now we have support from the GFS. Getting interesting...

I know CMC is often bullish on strength, what does 991 mb typically translate to?

To get the record straight, the CMC has no nupport from the GFS of tropical development out of the ULL forecasted to track westward.

[cycloneye]

There may be a caviat to any potential development if it happens at all as the pressure gradient north and south of ULL will not allow a LLC to form. Let's see how the models have this in next runs.

[NDG]

You are exactly right, the problem that it will have of trying to work down to the surface will be the strong easterly low level jet at the surface, the Bermuda ridge will be in control in that area.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Getting interesting...coup for the CMC?